Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to hold on to the $78,000 mark, as tensions in the Middle East push oil pric

Core Points

• Key support areas face test
• Bulls point out potential recovery scenarios

Key support areas face test

Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly hit US$77,600 in early trading on Tuesday, and then rebounded to 78 amid growing tensions in the Middle East. above $000. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices climbed to near $95 a barrel, and Brent crude tested the $100-a barrel mark for the first time since late July.

Technical analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that a weekly close below US$78,300 could indicate a break pattern similar to the May decline this year. Another analyst, Ted Pillows, believes that if the weekly close exceeds US$83,000, it will lay the foundation for Bitcoin to hit the US$100,000 mark this year.

Military operations against Iran's oil infrastructure and retaliatory strikes by Houthi forces on Saudi facilities have further exacerbated regional instability. Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline to $77,600 early in Wall Street trading session on Tuesday, its lowest level since early September, before rallying and regaining its footing above $78,000. The decline coincided with the decline in the U.S. stock market index due to the escalation of military operations in the Middle East.

Major stock benchmarks weakened at the opening, with the S & P 500 down 0.5% and the Nasdaq down 0.4%. Energy commodities fluctuate more significantly, with WTI crude oil approaching US$95 per barrel, and Brent crude oil testing the US$100 mark for the first time since July 24.

After the U.S. attempted confrontation with naval ships, the U.S. military launched strikes on several Iranian oil tankers near Harg Island and in the Gulf of Oman. Iran's Revolutionary Guard immediately issued a counterattack threat, targeting maritime traffic near ports of Kuwait and Bahrain. Iranian authorities are establishing a maritime exclusion zone around the Strait of Hormuz, and government officials in Tehran have warned that continued U.S. military action could trigger attacks on the region's energy infrastructure.

Yemen's pro-Iranian Houthi forces have expanded the scale of hostilities by coordinating drone and missile attacks on four cities in southern Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia confirmed that 73 people were injured and fires broke out at oil facilities in Jazan and Abha.

Market analyst Rekt Capital highlighted the similarities between the current situation and Bitcoin's failed attempt to rebound in May. At that time, BTC/USD surged to US$82,800, then fell back, stabilized around US$78,300, and finally plunged to about US$57,000.

He said on the X platform: "A back test is currently underway around $78,300." He emphasized that if the weekly closing price falls below the threshold and a bearish backtest pattern appears,"it is likely that a break will be confirmed." If Bitcoin fails to hold on to the $78,300 region, it will be another lower high in the series since October 2025, strengthening Bitcoin's overall bearish structure during its 2026 downturn.

Bulls point out potential recovery scenarios

Cryptocurrency analyst CryptosBatman observed on platform X that Bitcoin has rebounded above its weekly 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), but the top still faces resistance. He pointed out that assets are testing long-term downtrend lines, while the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching downward resistance, indicating that a clear breakthrough will be an important bullish confirmation signal and that rejection could lead to further downside.

Ted Pillows, another market analyst, believes that a weekly close of more than $83,000 could push Bitcoin towards its $100,000 target by the end of the year. He observed that Bitcoin has recently formed a daily-level "golden cross" pattern, and also warned that weakening demand in the spot market poses continuing challenges.

Trader Michaël van de Poppe suggested that Bitcoin's current correction may be coming to an end, pointing out that if it falls further, the $72,000 to 74,000 range would be an attractive accumulation area.

Brent crude closed at $98.63 a barrel on Tuesday as instability in the Middle East continued to put upward pressure on global energy markets.