Note: Strategy issues 93% crash warning to Bitcoin investors

Strategy: Consider Bitcoin a long-term investment, and the new guide warns investors to be wary of historical fluctuations.

Strategy recently released a new investment guide to remind those who hold Bitcoin for a long time. Investors must be mentally prepared for serious losses in history. Michael Saylor pointed out in a document released over the weekend that Bitcoin experienced a value decline of as much as 93.1% in 2011, which is by far the worst annual return, reaching-83.6%.

The core of this guide is that it does not overemphasize upside potential, but focuses on how investors should face and withstand severe market downside risks.

Core Points of Strategy Guidelines

Strategy emphasized in its released guidance that even if investors 'long-term expectations for Bitcoin are correct, huge short-term losses cannot be completely offset. According to the company's analysis, even if an investor accurately predicts that Bitcoin will appreciate in the next ten years, he may still suffer serious financial losses during one of those ten months.

guideline clearly states that this risk does not stem solely from fluctuations in the Bitcoin price itself. Factors such as leveraged trading, the depreciation of options over time, unfavorable capital structures, intra-company risks, counterparty default risk, high fees and forced liquidation can all cause investors to suffer losses.

The core logic of this concept is clear: correctly judging the price direction of Bitcoin is not the same as being able to correctly manage the risk of positions.

Biggest decline in Bitcoin history

Strategy listed the 2011 plunge in its guide as the most severe decline in Bitcoin history, when the price fell by 93.1%. The document also reiterated that Bitcoin's worst one-year return was-83.6%. The company takes this opportunity to remind investors not only to prepare for long-term rising scenarios, but also to prepare for possible violent shocks in the middle.

This warning is particularly important for traders who use leveraged or short-term financial instruments to participate in Bitcoin investments. Because price increases in the long run do not mean that investors can safely hold positions throughout the process without being liquidated or stopped.

Has Michael Siler ever experienced such risks?

Given Michael Siler's past experience, Strategy's warning is particularly noteworthy. On March 20, 2000, MicroStrategy announced a restatement of its revenue over the past three years, causing its share price to plummet 62% in one day from a peak of $333. Subsequently, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Siler and two company executives for accounting violations.

Although Siler did not plead guilty, he ultimately paid a refund of $8.28 million and a fine of $350,000. This history has given greater weight to Strategy's warning to investors today about a "sharp decline".

Strategy's Bitcoin Holding Cost Analysis

There is one detail worth noting here. As of September 7, Strategy held 845,050 bitcoins, with an average purchase cost of $75,412 each. When BTC is around $77,106, Strategy's average cost of holding a position is only about 2% higher. However, this price is still about 38.8% below the historical high in October 2025.

The company's latest purchasing action was also relatively short. Strategy purchased 4,603 bitcoins on August 31, with an average payment price of $80,318. But shortly after completing the purchase, the company suspended its new Bitcoin acquisition plan.

How can Strategy benefit from this guide?

Options available to investors in the guide include Strategy's common stock and preferred stock issued by the company as a Bitcoin vault company. In the process, the company did not conceal potential conflicts of interest. Strategy made it clear that when the price of Bitcoin rises, the company will benefit directly from it.

So an interesting situation arises: Although Michael Siler warned investors to prepare for Bitcoin's historical decline of as high as 93%, Strategy's own financial structure is highly dependent on rising Bitcoin prices. This makes the guide more than just a Bitcoin investment recommendation, but also an important document for understanding Strategy's own risk profile.

This content is based on general market data and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are advised to conduct independent research.