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BTC Bitcoin rebounded above US$79,000, but it was difficult to maintain momentum due to mixed CPI signals.
After digesting the latest U.S. inflation data, Bitcoin (BTC) regained its low below US$76,000 and rebounded to above US$79,000. However, this recovery quickly waned as the market assessed the rising probability of interest rate hikes. Currently, monetary policy, ETF capital flows and technical indicators send contradictory signals to the market. As the Federal Reserve approaches its decision next week, traders need to keep a close eye on the key resistance level of $80,000.
CPI data releases mixed signals
On September 11, the trading price of Bitcoin was approximately US$79,387.86, up 2.89% in 24 hours. The broader cryptocurrency market also strengthened, pushing the total market value to US$2.69 trillion.
Core consumer price index (CPI) growth slowed to 2.4% year-on-year, the lowest level in 66 months. The core CPI excludes food and energy prices, which many traders see as a clearer measure of underlying price pressure. Cryptocurrency analyst Crypto Patel pointed out before the data was released that weakening monthly core inflation could reduce market expectations for further interest rate hikes.
However, the reality is more complex. The monthly core CPI reached 0.3%, higher than market expectations of 0.2%; the overall CPI remained at 3.4% year-on-year, indicating continued inflationary pressure. Among them, energy prices significantly pushed up monthly growth in August. Gasoline prices rose 3.9%, accounting for more than one-third of the total monthly increase; the broad energy index also rose 2.1% for the month. The rise in oil prices caused by the conflict between the United States and Iran has driven this trend. These data create a complex background for Bitcoin traders: Annual inflation has improved, but monthly core inflation has shown new pressure.
Expectations to raise interest rates on the Federal Reserve increase pressure
The market reacted strongly to the hotter monthly core CPI data. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the implied probability of the Fed raising interest rates on September 16 has climbed to 85%, compared with about 60% a week ago.
Higher interest rates are expected to pose challenges to risky assets such as Bitcoin. When government bonds offer attractive returns, investors may prefer safer's fixed-income products. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield once hit its highest level since June 2004, and then fell back to around 5.309%, but the pressure remains high.
Trading firm QCP Capital described rising yields as the main headwind for Bitcoin. The company pointed out that without stronger economic growth support, a risk-free 5% yield constitutes fierce competition, which may limit Bitcoin's ability to achieve strong breakthroughs.
Traders need to see stronger demand before they can view the recent rally as a lasting reversal. The flow of ETF funds also provides another warning sign for the current rally. On September 11, the Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded a net outflow of US$13.29 million, the fourth consecutive day of net outflow. Among all major products, only Morgan Stanley's MSBT fund showed significant net inflows.
