Bitcoin bear market cycle returns less likely: CryptoQuant analysts

Core Points

The output of bitcoin in the loss-making state is reduced.

US$71,300 marks cost benchmark support for potentially active supply.

US$79,800 concentrated possible break-even point selling pressure.

ETF capital outflows challenge the improving on-chain data landscape.

Changes in loss output change the cycle picture

According to data from CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan, the proportion of Bitcoin transaction output (UTXO) at a loss has dropped from nearly 60% to approximately 27%. He pointed out that there had been a similar decline in market sentiment in the past as it shifted from bearish to optimistic.

The Bitcoin transaction output, or UTXO, is a single expendable unit of BTC recorded on the blockchain. When the current price of Bitcoin is below its implied cost basis (i.e., the market price at the time the output was created), the UTXO is classified as at a loss.

This does not necessarily represent the buying price of its current owner. A transaction may represent either a purchase or a transfer between different wallets controlled by the same person or company.

Despite the above limitations, this downward trend suggests that the financial pressure on a larger proportion of Bitcoin exports has eased. Compared with the peak of the decline, the number of exports currently under the implied cost basis has decreased significantly.

这并不意味着27%的比特币投资者正在亏钱。一个人可以控制多个UTXO，而单个UTXO包含的BTC数量可能差异巨大。该指标统计的是区块链上的输出数量，而非人数或比特币供应量中按权重均等的份额。

历史比较也具有暗示性而非决定性，因为比特币仅完成了少数几个主要市场周期。较低的亏损百分比支持复苏论点，但没有任何单一的链上指标能官方确定熊市周期何时结束。

熊周期回归的可能性降低，并不排除再次回调的可能。该分析关注的是比特币更广泛的数月结构，而非其每日走势。

比特币仍位于两组持有者之间

亏损指标描述了市场的改善，但并未显示买家和卖家可能在何处做出反应。CryptoQuant另一位贡献者Darkfost的独立分析将比特币置于两个成本基准水平之间：约71,300美元的潜在活跃供应支撑位，以及约79,800美元的投资资本阻力位。

截至撰写本文时，根据CoinMarketCap的市场数据，比特币于9月17日UTC时间08:53左右交易于76,400美元附近。这使得价格比下限高出约7%，比上限低约4%。

这一区间将Crypto Dan更广泛的周期论点转化为可测试的价格结构。比特币已回升至使活跃持有者普遍盈利，但尚未足以吸收所有等待在盈亏平衡点附近的供应。

71,300美元反映活跃比特币的成本基础

活跃供应成本基础估算的是在当前市场中仍具有经济意义的硬币的平均价格。超过七年未移动的比特币被排除在外，从而减少了那些可能丢失、无法访问或不太可能参与市场的持仓的影响。

当比特币交易价格高于约71,300美元时，意味着该组内包含的平均硬币仍处于盈利状态。成本基础在此附近的投资者可能会抵制在此之下出售，从而帮助该区域在价格回归时发挥支撑作用。

这种行为并非绝对保证。如果持续跌破71,300美元，将使更多活跃供应陷入水下。如果买家未能重新夺回该水平，试图避免更深损失的投资者可能会将前支撑位转变为抛售来源。

79,800美元是复苏与卖方的交汇点

约79,800美元的投资资本成本基础代表了另一群体。在该水平，一些目前处于亏损状态的资本回到了盈亏平衡点。

在高价位买入的投资者可能会利用复苏机会退出，而不必实现亏损。近期买入的投资者也可能在同一区域获利了结。这些决策会增加79,800美元附近的供应，并有助于解释为何比特币难以突破该区域继续上涨。

This is not inconsistent with the decline in the percentage of loss exports. The same recovery has brought more UTXOs back to profitability, while also bringing previously underwater holders closer to exit. Before the improved on-chain structure translates into sustained gains, Bitcoin must absorb their potential selling pressure.

How to interpret Bitcoin's cost benchmark range

• Above US$79,800: Standing above the upper limit, indicating that demand can absorb potential break-even selling pressure.
• Range between US$71,300 and US$79,800: Active supply generally remains profitable, but selling pressure above continues to limit the recovery.
• Below US$71,300: A continued break below will put more active supply at loss and weaken the improving cyclical structure.

Loss percentages reverse with price

The main objection is built into the UTXO indicator itself. Its improvement is partly the result of Bitcoin's recovery. When prices rise, output automatically shifts from loss to profit; when prices fall, the process reverses.

Therefore, this indicator confirms that conditions have improved, but does not independently indicate whether demand is strong enough to maintain this improvement. The cost benchmark range and the inflow or outflow of funds provide the necessary secondary verification.

Recent capital flows have low support. According to SoValue data, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of approximately $450 million on September 15, the largest one-day outflow since June.

The outflow occurred on the same day that the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate. The next day, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points. Although timing coincidences do not prove that these two events led to redemptions, they both create a more difficult context for risk-sensitive demand.

Higher interest rates may make speculative assets less attractive, although Bitcoin's response to every tightening decision is not exactly the same. Bitcoin's past response to Fed interest rates has depended on whether policy changes have been priced and what officials signal next.

The next pullback will test the cyclical argument

The bullish view does not require Bitcoin to rise without interruption. It requires future declines to keep the percentage of loss output within a relatively controllable range, while the active supply cost base remains solid. Stabilizing ETF demand will provide additional evidence that this improvement is supported by new capital rather than a mere price recovery.

If Bitcoin continues to fall below its active supply cost base, the proportion of loss exports starts to rise sharply, and funds continue to flow out, opposition will be strengthened. This combination would suggest that once demand wanes, the recovery has failed to protect holders.

Crypto Dan's indicators suggest that Bitcoin is no longer under widespread unrealized pressure as it did in the early days of the decline. Darkfost's range identifies unresolved issues: the market has recovered enough to create potential support, but not yet enough to absorb all the capital waiting to exit near the break-even point.

本文仅供参考，不构成金融或投资建议。链上指标和历史市场模式不能保证未来的价格表现。