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BTC Bitcoin charts repeat the previous round: Analysts say a 400% gain may be born
Bitcoin senior analyst Frank Cappelleri pointed out that Bitcoin's current technical chart pattern is highly similar to the structure before triggering a sharp 400% rise in the previous cycle. As the founder of the "CappThesis" theory, he believes that the same technical foundation may support Bitcoin to start a new round of rising prices.
The chart reproduces the recovery trend from 2022 to 2023
In an interview with CNBC, Cappelleri compared the current market structure of Bitcoin with the period from 2022 to 2023. During that period, Bitcoin experienced a decline of about 70%. He pointed out that Bitcoin's approximately 54% retracement in the middle of this week was in sharp contrast to the previous 70% decline. "In my opinion, this also shows a bullish pattern," he said. The previous decline eventually ended in a breakthrough, and he argued that once momentum was established, Bitcoin was expected to rebound strongly.
"Bitcoin can indeed see a surge," the analyst said."The increase can reach 400%." However, he cautioned that he did not expect the same return to be repeated this time. "I'm not going to predict that outcome," Cappelleri added, emphasizing that his focus was on building a "very similar foundation" that would ultimately push Bitcoin to new highs. He also mentioned Bitcoin's historical response to technical signals, saying that "Bitcoin excels in technical analysis" and believes that its past price behavior makes these signals difficult to ignore.
截至发稿时，比特币估值约为84,000美元。在过去24小时内，该加密货币小幅上涨逾1%，并在本周内保持相对稳定。此外，比特币在过去14天内上涨了约10%，30天内上涨了7%，但较去年同期同一时间点仍低27%。与此同时，该资产第三季度的涨幅约为42%，创下了自2017年以来的最佳三季度表现。
其他市场信号指向复杂格局
此前有报道指出，大型比特币持有者正在增加持仓，而小型钱包的余额则相对保持不变。根据Santiment的数据，持有10至10,000枚比特币的地址在10天内增加了41,025枚比特币，总余额达到1364万枚。历史上类似场景往往预示着更强劲的市场条件。
BIT Research也提出观点，认为比特币在7月下旬站稳62,900美元上方后，熊市已经结束。其分析显示，“真实市场均值”（即平均持有者成本的估算值）约为76,900美元，从而消除了另一部分抛压来源。该机构勾勒出一个看涨情景，目标价位在185,000至215,000美元之间，同时也承认具体的时机和路径仍存在不确定性。
然而，其他分析则不那么明确。例如，Ali Martinez指出，在之前的四次美国中期选举后，比特币均出现下跌，跌幅介于27%至72%之间。随着11月临近，这又为市场增添了新的不确定性因素。
