CoinShares：比特币或从美国债务担忧升温中受益

Concerns about U.S. debt rise, Bitcoin may become potential beneficiary

With growing concerns about U.S. debt issues, Bitcoin is seen as a potential beneficiary asset. CoinShares warned that rising U.S. Treasury yields may have a more important impact on the next direction of cryptocurrencies than the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

Digital asset fund inflows slow down

CoinShares pointed out that since attracting US$11.1 billion in funds since mid-July 2026, the inflow rate of digital asset funds has slowed significantly. Research data shows that the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond has exceeded 5.3%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond has reached 5.7%.

Previously, due to weak non-farm payrolls data, the probability that the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in October dropped sharply from 71% three weeks ago to 23%. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury Department has expanded the size of long-term bond repurchase operations to at least $4 billion at a time and will continue until November.

CoinShares believes that rising bond yields driven by debt problems may enhance Bitcoin's attractiveness relative to fiat currencies.

Institutional investment willingness has not yet fully recovered

CoinShares mentioned in a report on October 8 that although digital asset funds have attracted a total of approximately US$11.1 billion in funds since mid-July, inflows this week have weakened significantly. The research institute pointed out that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to above 5.3%, and the yield on the 30-year bond hit 5.7%, the highest level in more than two decades. Analysts believe that investors 'concerns about the government's ability to borrow are gradually affecting their valuation logic for Bitcoin.

这一分析背景是9月份美国就业数据不及预期，降低了市场对美联储再次加息的预期。然而，尽管宏观环境发生变化，机构买盘并未充分恢复，尚不足以确认对比特币投资产品的需求出现持续性的增长。

此前的购买行为发生在投资者因估值较低而重新回归加密货币市场之际。CoinShares认为，对美国财政状况的担忧可能是促成这些配置的原因之一，但最新的资金流向尚未完全证实这一解释。在此之前的几个月里，机构投资者通过受监管的加密投资产品增加了敞口，但对通胀、借贷成本和经济增长预期的变化使前景变得复杂。

债券市场成为关键变量

随着长期政府借贷成本攀升至二十多年来的高位，美国债券市场已成为CoinShares评估中的核心关注点。报告显示，10年期收益率超过5.3%，30年期收益率约为5.7%。9月份对政府债券而言尤为艰难，10年期收益率当月涨幅超过50个基点。

尽管美国财政部试图通过债券回购支持流动性——例如在8月将某些操作的回购上限提高至至少40亿美元，并计划延续至11月初——但收益率仍持续上升。CoinShares指出，这表明投资者对美国财政状况及华盛顿所需的融资规模仍感担忧。

Despite intervention efforts, the market is not moving in one direction. Driven by strong demand at the October 8 treasury bond auction, the benchmark 10-year yield fell back to about 5.23%, and the 30-year bond auction settled at 5.618%. The results show that investors are buying long-term government debt even as yields hit decades-high.

Debt concerns may increase Bitcoin's appeal

CoinShares believes that the reasons behind rising bond yields will determine Bitcoin's performance in the months ahead. If the rise in yields is due to strong economic activity or tightening monetary policy expectations, high returns from treasury bonds may put pressure on cryptocurrencies. However, the report raises another possibility: Bitcoin's appeal as an alternative to government currency could increase if investors demand higher yields due to concerns about the sustainability of U.S. public finances.

This assessment remains to be verified. CoinShares has not yet confirmed that the recent rise in government bond yields is mainly driven by fiscal concerns, nor has it confirmed that investors have turned to Bitcoin. James Butterfill, its director of research, said the bond market could eventually become a more important factor than the next Fed decision. Strong buying behavior related to fiscal concerns would support the view that investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as an alternative monetary asset.

Falling probability of interest rate hikes coexists with inflation concerns

Faced with weak September employment data and high inflation, the Fed faces difficult decisions. CoinShares reported that the market's implicit probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to 23% from 71% three weeks ago. The weakening employment data prompted traders to expect a pause in monetary policy tightening, but economic activity remained resilient and Purchasing Managers 'Index (PMI) data continued to show expansion.

Previous reductions in interest rate cuts have supported the view that Bitcoin is protected from monetary policy pressure. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson said on October 2 that given the changing economic situation, policymakers may need more time to raise interest rates again.

Inflation continues to complicate decision-making. Part of the rise in oil prices, influenced by tensions related to Iran, has heightened concerns about energy costs, while consumer spending and business activity have outperformed the labor market. Lacie Zhang, head of research at Bitget Wallet, pointed out in a separate assessment on October 5 that if bond yields moderate, inflation cools and investment demand strengthens, Bitcoin's price range could be between $90,000 and $93,000.

CoinShares takes a different perspective, focusing on changes in the bond market and the reasons for rising borrowing costs, observing them side by side with central bank policies. Investors will welcome September consumer price index (CPI) data on October 14, which will be an important reference before the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting. Subsequent economic agendas also include preliminary third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and September personal consumption expenditure data. These releases will provide more information on consumer spending, inflation and economic growth after September's weak employment data.