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BTC Bitcoin briefly fell below US$81,000, and QCP Capital views the decline as a potential buying opportunity.
As the latest round of cryptocurrency selling intensified, Bitcoin prices briefly fell below the US$81,000 mark. However, Singapore trading house QCP Capital believes the decline has directly pushed Bitcoin into a potential buying range.
According to the fourth-quarter market outlook report released by QCP, the agency expects bitcoin prices to fluctuate between US$80,000 and US$90,000 under benchmark scenarios. At the same time, the QCP clearly pointed out that US$80,000 to US$82,000 is a key area for it to look for buying opportunities in the fourth quarter.
Previously, Bitcoin failed to maintain its momentum of breaking through US$87,000 last week, triggering continued selling. During this correction, Bitcoin hit as low as about $80,900, and then tried to rebound above $82,000.
QCP: US$80,000 -82,000 is an ideal buying area
QCP describes the current bitcoin market as a standoff between "structural crypto demand" and "increasingly severe macro environment."
Under its benchmark scenario, if institutional inflows fail to improve, QCP plans to accumulate positions in the US$80,000 to US$82,000 range and consider reducing exposure when prices reach US$88,000 to US$90,000. This means that Bitcoin's recent trend is particularly important because the current price is right near the bottom of the QCP's expected fourth-quarter range.
In addition, the QCP also proposed a bullish scenario. Bitcoin is expected to break the US$100,000 mark if a combination of the following catalysts occurs:
- ETFs continue to receive net inflows;
- The supply of stablecoins expands;
- Real yields fall;
- The US dollar index weakens;
- U.S. crypto legislation makes progress.
ETF capital outflows are currently the biggest immediate risk
This week, institutional capital flows in the opposite direction of price increases. Taking the spot Bitcoin ETF as an example, there was a net outflow of approximately US$485 million on October 7, with BlackRock, Fidelity and ARK as the main outflow contributors. This round of net outflows not only offset inflows from the previous trading day, but also weakened an important source of marginal demand.
QCP specifically pointed out that the flow of ETF funds is one of the key variables that determines whether Bitcoin remains within the range of US$80,000 to US$90,000.
The macro background is still full of challenges. High Treasury yields, expensive oil prices and a strong dollar have all put pressure on speculative assets in recent declines.
