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BTC U.S. September CPI data exceeds expectations: Inflation concerns rise, and the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Fed increases.
The Consumer Price Index for September, released today, indicates that inflation levels are higher than market forecasts. This result has significant implications for the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets, as well as for the Fed’s interest rate policies.
The annual CPI increase reached 3.7%, exceeding market expectations. Core inflation was also higher than anticipated. This further reinforces market concerns that the Fed will be cautious about lowering interest rates, even leading to discussions about possible additional rate hikes. Due to this data release, Bitcoin prices fell below the $83,000 mark. Currently, attention is focused on the Fed meeting scheduled for October 27-28.
Inflation concerns intensify: Fed interest rate hikes may not be a one-time event.
In September, CPI rose by 3.7% year-on-year, reaching its highest level since May. This indicates that inflation in the U.S. is accelerating again, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will tighten its monetary policy. Bloomberg macroeconomic analyst Chris Anstey pointed out that the latest data suggest that the interest rate hikes in September may not be isolated events.
Analysts say that recent statements from Fed officials indicate that they do not plan to implement a series of rate hikes in October. According to this analyst, the strong CPI data released today may not be enough to change this stance, meaning that such data alone may not justify rate hikes in October. However, this would reinforce the expectation that the Fed will adopt more restrictive policies.
In this context, analysts suggest that market expectations regarding a tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve are likely to increase. It is almost certain that any interest rate hikes in September will not be a one-time event.
CME data indicates that the probability of a Fed interest rate hike in October is increasing
. According to the FedWatch tool provided by the CME, after the release of September CPI data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October has dropped to 50.7%, while the probability of a 25-point interest rate hike has risen to 49.3%.
Looking ahead to December, market pricing suggests that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged is 3.5%, while the probability of a 25-point interest rate hike is 50.6%. The probability of a 50-point interest rate hike is as high as 45.9%.
Bank of America predicts that the Fed may conduct three more interest rate hikes before June 2027
. According to CNBC reports, analysts at Bank of America have updated their predictions regarding the Fed’s monetary policy. They believe that the Fed may conduct three more interest rate hikes before June 2027.
