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BTC Points:
The war, rising oil prices and Strategy\'s sale of Bitcoin have put additional pressure on Bitcoin\'s US$60,000 support level. Strategy\'s bitcoin sell-off and market concerns about renewed tightening of global cryptocurrency regulation have made the already fragile crypto market environment worse.
Bitcoin prices fell 3.5% on Wednesday as new developments in the U.S. -Iraq war pushed oil prices higher and the Japanese bond market came under renewed pressure. This combination triggered widespread risk aversion in the market. At the same time, market concerns have intensified that Strategy may sell Bitcoin, and traders are currently preparing for a possible fall below the $60,000 mark.
Bitcoin\'s failed attempt to recover $64500 on Monday coincided with a decline in the technology-dominated Nasdaq index. However, stocks recovered some losses on Wednesday, while Bitcoin failed to rebound from the $62000 level. This weak performance means that other factors may be weighing on cryptocurrencies. [TAG Brent crude surged to $74 from $68 a week earlier as disruptions in energy supplies following the formal breakdown of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding raised inflation risks. US President Donald Trump declared the agreement \"null and void\" after US forces launched attacks on Iranian facilities in response to attacks on ships. Higher energy costs add directly to overall price pressures, reducing the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts and limiting the chances of stimulus packages.
Traders currently expect a 69% chance of a rate hike before September, up from 42% a month ago. This environment places heavy pressure on risky assets, and Bitcoin is still not considered an effective hedging tool.
Global economic uncertainty combined with Strategy selling pressure
Another factor that has exacerbated market caution is President Trump\'s request at the NATO summit that the United States stop trade with Spain and called the key ally a \"waste of resources\" for failing to commit to new defense spending targets. Such trade frictions could drag on global economic activity and exacerbate fears of a global economic contraction.
In Japan, government bond yields soared to a 30-year high, reflecting concerns about the central bank\'s lack of independence as the government attempts to adjust the Bank of Japan\'s policy goals to \"achieve a stronger economy.\" Japan is the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasurys, raising the possibility of global risk contagion.
Strategy (US Stock Code: MSTR US) surprised the market with its latest round of bitcoin selling totaling $216 million on Monday. Because according to the disclosure, the sell-off occurred outside the core $1.25 billion monetization plan. The company said in its 8-K filing that the plan only includes funds used to replenish its cash reserves.
Investors are now worried that Strategy will continue to exert selling pressure as it manages its capital structure and debt obligations-with annual dividends totaling $1.76 billion alone. In addition, Strategy holds more than $3.8 billion in convertible debt, with the earliest redemption date before April 2027.
On the regulatory front, the Bank of India strongly supports policies that tend to ban crypto activities, including prohibiting banks from accessing any virtual assets to maintain financial stability. India\'s tax authorities also highlighted the risk of tax evasion. Signals of tightening global regulations have added another layer of negative pressure to bitcoin prices and market sentiment.
Bitcoin shorts remain dominant, and market risk appetite is declining due to socio-political instability, possible further tightening of the Federal Reserve\'s monetary policy, and Strategy\'s continued cash needs. Market sentiment is likely to remain fragile, and it is increasingly possible to re-test the $60,000 support level in the short term.
