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FollowingInterpretation of U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August: Core growth is limited, market reassesses interest rate hike expectations
Although the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August showed a strong trend on the headline (main indicator), analysts pointed out that after removing one-time effects, the underlying growth of the labor market is still relatively limited. Data showed that non-agricultural employment increased by 162,000 in August, significantly higher than market expectations of 56,000. In addition, previous data has also been revised upward. Among them, the employment change in July was revised from a decrease of 23,000 to an increase of 21,000, with a cumulative increase of 55,000 in the first two months.
Core employment growth is weak and market resilience appears
However, analysts stressed that if the temporary impact of the recovery of the entertainment and hotel industries and employment in the public and education sectors are excluded, core employment growth in August only remained at around 60,000. The data suggests that the actual strength of the labor market may not be as strong as surface data suggests. The report also showed that the unemployment rate stabilized at 4.1% in August, with the labor force participation rate rising to 61.6%; the broader U6 unemployment rate indicator fell to 7.7% from 7.9%. Analysts believe that the number of workers returning to the labor market matches corporate recruitment needs and the quality of employment has improved.
Wage growth slows down, inflationary pressure alleviates marginally
On the other hand, the year-on-year increase in average hourly wages fell to 3.1%, from 3.2%, still below the consumer price index (CPI) level of 3.4% in July. This suggests that there are no new significant signs of overheating in the labor market. Guangfa Securities said that August employment data weakened the possibility of two extreme scenarios: "employment collapse" and "labor market overheating again." The bank believes that the resilience of the job market has enhanced the market's confidence that the economy can withstand further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, thereby increasing the possibility of raising interest rates later in the year.
Market reaction: The probability of raising interest rates rises, led by technology stocks
According to FedWatch tool data, after the data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September increased from 50% to 58.6%. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 4.37%, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose 1 basis point to 4.78%. The major U.S. stock index closed slightly lower on the day, but the AI hardware and semiconductor sectors bucked the trend and rose. The SOXX ETF, which tracks the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, rose 3%.
The above content does not constitute investment advice.
