Bitcoin Price News: Don't miss the next decline

Bitcoin prices fell slightly below US$80,000, and the market entered a weekend silent period.

This weekend, Bitcoin prices traded just below US$80,000, having previously failed to hold the latest push above US$82,000. The price trend on Saturday was relatively calm, which is not uncommon in the cryptocurrency market where traditional markets are closed and trading conditions may become thin.

Bitcoin was under pressure on Friday due to stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, while inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs also cooled from abnormally high levels the day before.

Analyst Mags: Bitcoin may experience its last major correction

The lack of active trading over the weekend does not mean that the larger Bitcoin narrative has disappeared. Analyst Mags believes that the recent rebound may be similar to what occurred during the bear market in 2022, when BTC initially rebounded from its 200-week moving average and then eventually fell towards the 300-week moving average, forming deeper cyclical lows.

This comparison puts a troubling price point on the radar into view: about $56,226.

At the same time, not all indicators agree that another sharp decline is imminent. Recent ETF demand and improving trend indicators provide very different arguments for bulls.

Mags 'views mainly focus on two long-term moving averages: the 200-week moving average and the 300-week moving average. His chart compares the current Bitcoin cycle to 2022. In previous bear markets, BTC hit its 200-week moving average around August 2022 and initially rebounded. But this recovery does not mark the ultimate bottom.

Bitcoin then reversed again and reached a cyclical low later that year, which was closer to the 300-week moving average. Mags believes there are similarities today. According to his chart, Bitcoin recently tested its 200-week moving average near the $60,000 - 65,000 region, and then rebounded to around $80,000. He labeled this a "first rebound" comparable to the recovery in early 2022.

If this historical sequence continues, Mags believes there will be a soothing rally before another sell-off period. The path he predicted would then push Bitcoin towards its 300-week moving average (currently around $56,226), with a potential low likely in December. The comparison of time points is particularly interesting. The first 200-week moving average interaction he mentioned occurred around August 2022, while the current one occurred around August 2026. The previous cycle bottomed out around December 2022, while his forecast puts the next potential low around December 2026.

But this is a historical comparison, not a rule. Just because the moving average and time point look similar, there is no need for Bitcoin to recreate the 2022 sequence.

CryptoCon also believes that Bitcoin's bottom may still be ahead

Mags are not the only one looking forward to further downside. CryptoCon has repeatedly argued that Bitcoin's bear market may not have completed its full cycle. His broader temporal analysis positions the potential final bottom between November 2026 and January 2027. This highly overlaps with Mags 'December scenario.

However, their downside expectations should not be seen as exactly the same. CryptoCon uses a variety of different models, and previous analysis has produced significantly lower price targets, including $44,500 and $28,500, depending on which historical bear market range Bitcoin hits. Recent analysis has also acknowledged conflicting on-chain evidence that is already similar to previous cycles at lows.

The useful conclusion is not that Bitcoin will reach a certain number, but that both independent cycle analyses leave room for the current rally, making it an intermediate recovery rather than the beginning of a new bull cycle.

Mags 'chart provides traders with a particularly intuitive level of observation: If Bitcoin loses its 200-week moving average again, the rising 300-week moving average near $56,000 will become more relevant.

Bitcoin bulls have strong evidence

Assuming that another collapse is inevitable, there is also a major problem: recent market behavior has become stronger. On Thursday, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF received a net inflow of approximately $730.9 million, the largest single-day total since January. Inflows fell to about $174.6 million on Friday, but remained positive. [TAG

The broader liquidity backdrop also improved with the US Treasury's decision in August to increase the maximum size of its long-term bond repurchase operations. Bitcoin rallied strongly after the announcement, although Treasury buybacks should not be interpreted as direct printing or guarantees that liquidity will flow into cryptocurrencies.

Another bullish argument came from Bitfinex analysts who reportedly identified a bullish turn in the Bitcoin weekly supertrend indicator on September 5. Supertrend is a trend-following indicator based on volatility. A bullish reading usually means that prices have moved above the indicator trend line, and as long as this relationship remains, the trend is constructive.

This forms an interesting conflict with Mags 'cycle comparison. Long-term historical models suggest another sharp decline is still possible, while more immediate market indicators suggest buyers have regained some control.

Bitcoin prices may be at the most critical part of the cycle

Our view is that the evidence is insufficient to support considering US$56,226 as an inevitable destination for Bitcoin. Mags 'chart is persuasive because the structures in 2022 and 2026 share several characteristics: a sharp decline, a touch to the 200-week moving average, a strong initial rebound and a rising 300-week moving average below.

But Bitcoin is also traded in different market environments. Spot ETFs have created another major source of institutional demand, with Thursday's $730.9 million inflow demonstrating the speed at which capital flows back when sentiment improves. Bitcoin's recent recovery to $82,000 also suggests buyers are willing to step in above analysts 'forecasts of lows.

The next few levels will help distinguish the two scenarios. If Bitcoin can regain its footing and hold at US$82,000 - 83,000, the argument that recent actions have been merely a soothing increase will weaken. The continued intensity will increasingly challenge the idea that it is necessary to go to the 300-week moving average again.

However, if the recovery fails, attention will return to the downward direction. The 200-week moving average will once again become critical, and a decisive loss of that long-term support will make Mags 'target of about $56,000 more attractive.

Therefore,"Don't miss the next callback" carries an important warning.