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BTC Unique market forecast derived from 4chan: Bitcoin fluctuates near the bottom of the cycle
A unique market forecast first shared on the 4chan forum in December 2023 has attracted widespread attention from cryptocurrency traders because its bold predictions are highly consistent with Bitcoin's market trend. The forecast will position today as the bottom of the potential cycle for this leading digital asset.
Prediction content and 4chan's market cycle pattern
On December 12, 2023, a 4chan user named SBC7H7La proposed that the next major high for Bitcoin would appear on October 6, 2025. The user based his calculations on a recurring numerical pattern: it took 1,064 days to go from market low to high and 364 days to go from high to low, a sequence that has occurred twice in Bitcoin history.
This prediction caused a sensation in the digital asset circle. Although many traders are familiar with cycle theory, they rarely see them fulfilled so accurately. According to simulations in 4chan's post, Bitcoin's trend will repeat itself in history and hit a new high on the expected date.
Despite widespread skepticism, the cycle was finally verified. On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,198, exactly in line with the forecast date.
After this peak, the market turned. As of late June 2026, the value of Bitcoin has dropped to approximately US$57,000, down approximately 52% from its peak. Asset manager 21Shares pointed out that although the decline was significant, this adjustment was relatively mild compared to the bear market decline of more than 80% in previous cycles.
2026年10月：所谓的周期底部与当前价格走势
按照该模式推算，在市场高点基础上增加364天，得出的结果是2026年10月5日——即今天——为下一个预期的底部。然而，尽管有此预测，比特币目前的交易价格约为86,100美元，仍比历史最高点低约32%。
近期的价格走势是在一段波动期之后出现的。此前，比特币曾在7月份短暂触及57,000美元的低位。此后，价格有所回升，目前比这一局部低点高出近50%。
专注于链上数据和周期分析的分析师Benjamin Cowen表示，比特币的积累阶段始于7月1日，但他警告称，可能仍有进一步下行空间。他的分析表明，如果继续出现抛售，第四季度可能会出现低点，并测试44,000美元的水平。
比特币当前的看涨格局与美国就业报告低于预期的情况相契合。这份疲软的数据可能使美联储放弃加息，而这种情况通常被视为对比特币等风险资产有利。
美国劳工部报告显示，9月份仅新增就业2.9万个岗位，远低于经济学家预期的9万个。交易员通常将疲软的劳动力数据解读为加息可能性降低的信号，这往往有利于包括加密货币在内的高风险投资。
尽管在线论坛流传的数字神秘主义预测增添了一丝神秘感，但大多数像Cowen这样的分析师仍依赖市场基本面和技术分析来判断比特币及其他数字资产的后续路径。4chan以其匿名性和内容多样性著称，经常发布关于加密货币市场的投机性预测和理论，其中一些在寻求非传统见解的散户交易员中获得了关注。
尽管如此，专业投资者和行业分析师警告称，即使这些预测偶尔准确，也不应将其作为投资建议。
背景知识
4chan： 一个匿名的在线图片版，以其无过滤的讨论和投机而闻名，其中包括有时在网络交易社区中获得关注的加密货币市场预测。
随着注意力转向是技术形态、基本面数据还是非传统理论将塑造市场周期的下一阶段，比特币在2026年最后一个季度伊始仍处于波动状态。
