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BTC 4chan's prediction comes true: The intersection of Bitcoin cycles and macro logic
On December 12, 2023, 4chan user SBC7H7La released a screenshot that contained an interesting pattern and bold prediction for Bitcoin's next market top: the top will appear on October 6, 2025. Surprisingly, Bitcoin fully fulfilled this forecast, hitting a record high of just over $126,000 on that date.
Pure numerology
The logic behind this prediction stems from pure "numerology." In the previous market cycle, it took 1,064 days to go from low to high and 364 days to go from high to low, and this pattern occurred twice in a row. The 4chan blogger confidently said that this simulation will repeat itself. And the prophecy did come true. Despite reasonable doubts at the time, the "simulation" came true again on October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin hit US$126,198.07.
From peak to trough
Since then, until recently, traders have seen red everywhere. By the end of June, bitcoin prices were down 52% from their peak. Cryptocurrency asset manager 21Shares pointed out at the time that despite the significant decline, it was still much milder than the bear market of more than 80% in past cycles.
Part 2 of the prophecy: When will the bottom come?
Now let's turn to the second part of the prophecy. If 364 days are added to October 6, 2025, the date is October 5, 2026, which is today. Therefore, according to 4chan's calculation logic, today is the bottom of the market.
当然，你不应该仅凭我们的说法就做出判断，但俗话说得好：“如果它看起来像鸭子，游起来也像鸭子……”
市场现状与技术面分析
今早，比特币交易价格约为86,100美元，并且正在形成非常看涨的技术形态。目前，比特币价格较峰值低了近30%，但在当日上涨了约2%。这一表现得益于最新的就业报告：美国9月仅新增29,000个就业岗位，远低于经济学家预期的90,000个。
通常情况下，这可能被视为利空消息，但对于交易者和投资者而言，数学逻辑指向另一个方向：美联储很可能维持当前利率不变，而不是再次加息。而较低利率（或在此情况下，不提高利率）正是投资比特币等风险资产的人们所乐见的。
话虽如此，比特币早在7月份就在约57,000美元处触底，这意味着目前的价格仍比底部高出约50%。
分析师观点：分歧依然存在
知名基本面分析师本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）认为，积累阶段始于7月1日，但他仍然看到另一轮下跌的空间窗口。相比之下，技术面的设置似乎更加乐观。
然而，无论哪种分析都不如信任一个随机的4chan设定来得有趣。在这场市场中，请自行选择你的冒险路径。
