Zcash prices test channel support after rising 600% from 2026 lows

Zcash still maintains a strong upward trend after pulling back from its September high

Although Zcash (ZEC) has retreated from its September high, it is still in a strong upward channel overall. The steep upward channel that has driven this rally since August is at risk of a breakthrough. As prices continue to hit new highs, market momentum shows signs of weakening. At the same time, Winklevoss Asset Services has filed a spot Zcash ETF application, which has rates that are much lower than similar Grayscale products.

On October 7, Zcash traded at around $1,365, down 19% from the September high of $1,693, but still more than 600% above the February low of $193. The token currently has a market value of US$23.08 billion and has surpassed Hyperliquid in the CoinMarketCap ranking to rank ninth. The correction brought prices to the lower edge of the downward channel that has accommodated this rally since mid-August, and coincided with a day before Winklevoss Asset Services filed a spot Zcash ETF application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Overview of key data

• Current price: $1,365
• Decline from September high: -19%
• September High: $1,693
• Increase from February lows: +600%
• February low: $193
• Total Market Value: $23.08 billion
• CoinMarketCap rankings: 9th place

Zcash is 17% above its 50-day moving average after soaring 250% in six weeks

The current wave began in mid-August, when Zec broke out of its ten-week consolidation range around $484 and climbed to $1,693 in late September, a gain of about 250%. On the Coinbase daily chart, prices are currently about 17% above the 50-day simple moving average of $1,164 and more than double the 200-day moving average of $625. Both moving averages show an upward trend.

Faced with such a large increase, the 19% correction appears relatively slight. The first Fibonacci retracement level of $1,408, which fell last week (marking a 23.6% withdrawal of the Aug-September gain), has now become the latest resistance level, about 3% above current market prices.

Support and Resistance Level Analysis

• September High/Top of the Rally: $1,693 (+24.0%)
• Fibonacci 0.236/First resistance (lost last week):$1,408 (+3.1%)
• Zcash current price/channel lower edge: $1,365
• Fibonacci 0.382/first support/top of key area: $1,231 (-9.8%)
• 50-day SMA/Key Region Bottom: $1,164 (-14.8%)
• Fibonacci 0.5/deeper support: $1,089 (-20.3%)
• Fibonacci 0.618/Last line of defense for normal retracement: $946 (-30.7%)
• 200-day SMA/Long Term Bottom: $625 (-54.2%)

The percentage shows the distance relative to the current price. Source: TradingView, Coinbase ZEC/USD daily chart.

The region of US$1,164 to US$1,231 has the greatest weight because the 38.2% retracement level and the 50-day moving average almost coincide here. Even if the price fell to $946, it would be only a 44% drop from its high and would still be seen as a regular correction to August's market.

channel is rising by US$27 per day, and Zcash has struggled to keep up.

The lower edge of the rising channel is rising by approximately 2% per day, close to US$27 at current prices. Within a week, the line will reach the $1,500 mark, so Zcash must keep growing every day to stay in the channel. As long as a few sideways adjustments occur, it will be enough to push the price into this pattern.

This breakthrough will end the near-vertical rebound phase. But this in and of itself will not reverse the trend, as the support level that defines the uptrend is far below the channel.

Looking back at history: May's golden cross and subsequent decline

Zcash has experienced similar trends this year. In mid-May, the 50-day moving average crossed the 200-day moving average to form a "golden cross", which traders interpreted as a long-term bullish signal, while a "head and shoulders" triple top pattern that usually marks the end of a rally was still under construction. Three weeks later, the support line below these peaks (around $495) fell, and ZEC fell to an intraday low of $249. However, the daily closing price remained at around $365, just near the 200-day moving average.

Subsequently, this EMA served as a support platform for ten weeks of sideways trading, while the upward movement pointed to by the gold cross began in August. Two conclusions emerge from this: strong trend signals do not prevent a sharp decline in the short term; the 200-day EMA has previously been tested as support. It is currently slightly above the top of the old consolidation range, which makes the $585 to $625 long-term bottom zone. [TAG

RSI peak dropped from 88 to 72, Zcash hit three higher highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) is the main warning indicator on the chart. Zcash hit three consecutive higher highs, around $875,$1,290 and $1,693, while the RSI peak behind it dropped from about 88 to about 72. Each push is accompanied by weaker buying forces than the previous one, a pattern known as a "bearish divergence."

Today's RSI reading was 52.18, below its own moving average of 56.17, and both are falling. But the RSI has not yet fallen below 50. The kinetic energy has cooled down, but it has not turned negative.

Winklevoss seeks an annual rate of 0.25% while Grayscale charges 2.5%

On October 6, Winklevoss Asset Services filed a preliminary S-1 form for the Winklevoss Zcash ETF, which will directly hold ZEC and is expected to be listed on Nasdaq under the symbol WINK. Gemini Trust Company will serve as trustee. The proposed management fee is 0.25% per year, compared to 2.5% for Grayscale's ZCSH, the only spot Zcash fund currently traded in the United States.

ETF Comparison Overview

• Winklevoss Zcash ETF (WINK)
• 年费率：0.25%（10万美元持仓成本约250美元）
• 状态：S-1表格于10月6日提交
• 交易所：纳斯达克（拟议）
• 托管人：Gemini Trust Company
• Grayscale Zcash ETF (ZCSH) - 已在交易
• 年费率：2.5%（10万美元持仓成本约2,500美元）
• 状态：自8月25日起交易
• 交易所：NYSE Arca
• 上周净流出：9,360万美元

需要注意的是，提交申请并不等于获批。注册声明仍需生效，且纳斯达克需完成上市流程。文件还指出，Winklevoss Capital可能购买高达1亿美元的WINK股份，但这被描述为非约束性的兴趣表示，而非承诺资本。Bitwise也已提交Zcash基金申请，这使得Winklevoss成为该类别中的第三家发行商。此时，山寨币ETF的申请正在整个市场中推进。

这份文件的提交正值现有基金的市场环境趋于疲软。ZCSH在推出两周内积累了超过5亿美元资产，但Farside Investors数据显示，截至10月2日当周（该基金的首个负面周），出现了约7,760万美元的净流出，随后10月5日又流出360万美元。随着早期ETF需求降温，新发行商纷纷入场，这与图表上显示的动能减弱一致。

Daily closing above US$1,408 or below US$1,231 will determine the next stage of trend

• Bullish scenario: Daily closed above US$1,408. ZEC will hold the channel line and retest the $1,690. If the RSI breaks through its moving average, a rally is confirmed. Given the divergence and the steepness of the channel, this requires a new influx of buying.
• Horizontal scenario (best evidence): Prices fluctuate between $1,231 and $1,408. Prices slipped out of the channel and entered sideways consolidation, waiting for the 50-day moving average to catch up. This will reset the RSI without disrupting the trend.
• Bear scenario: Daily closed below US$1,231. A further break below the 50-day moving average would open up downside of $1,089 and $946. Only a close below $946 would raise doubts about the August rally itself.

Before either of the above occurs, the chart depicts a pause in an uptrend, with the sideways path most consistent with the weakening momentum and the steepness of the channel.

NU7 upgrade shortens block time to 25 seconds, and the main network target date is November 5

The network itself is about to change. The Zcash Foundation has released the first candidate version of the NU7 network upgrade and is currently testing it for online operation. The upgrade will shorten block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds and route 60% of transaction fees to a reserve for later replenishment of miner rewards. Developers are aiming for November 5 as the launch date of the main network, and plan to set the activation height on October 20 after reviewing the operation of the test network. The supply cap of 21 million yuan remains unchanged.