Cryptocurrency outlook this week: Ethereum and Ripple stand at 50-day moving averages

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本周加密市场焦点：周三通胀数据与德国税务法案

本周加密货币市场的重心非常明确：10月14日（星期三），美国将在华盛顿时间上午8:30公布9月份消费者价格指数（CPI）；同日，德国联邦内阁预计将在柏林审议加密货币税收法案。据CoinGecko周日清晨数据显示，比特币价格为82,922美元，以太坊为2,504美元，XRP为1.40美元，Solana为109.91美元。在本周展望中，我们分析了过去十二个月的每日价格走势。最引人注目的结果是：以太坊和XRP的价格几乎正好位于其50日均线附近，这条线将决定未来几天的方向。

为何周三对四种货币至关重要

在美国联邦储备系统9月会议的会议纪要中透露，大多数成员认为在年底前进一步加息是合适的。下一次会议定于10月27日至28日举行。如果周三的通胀数据高于预期，加息的可能性将增加，而上周的数据足以推动以太坊、XRP和Solana下跌6%至8%。如果数据低于预期，市场压力将会减轻。

对于德国投资者而言，内阁的审议构成了第二个关键日期：财政部的法案涉及加密资产的征税问题，具体细节请参阅我们的相关报道。在法律正式颁布之前，一年的持有期规定保持不变。

资产当前价格 50日均线200-day moving average Last week's volatility range Bitcoin (BTC) $82,922 $79,989 $75,840 $80,652 - $86,636 Ethereum (ETH) $2,504 $2,501 $2,329 $2,414 - $2,731 XRP $1.40 $1.40 $1.39 $1.33 - $1.52 Solana (SOL) $109.91 $107.44 $98.24 $106.41 - $121.82

The above average is calculated based on CoinMarketCap's daily closing price, while the range of fluctuations is based on CoinGecko's hourly price from October 4 to 11. All four currencies traded above their 200-day moving averages, indicating that the long-term uptrend since summer lows remains intact.

Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: US$80,000 Is a Key Watermark

在这四种货币中，比特币与均线的距离最大。50日均线略低于80,000美元，这与周四价格反转的位置几乎完全吻合。如果该区域获得支撑，本周高点86,636美元将是明显的上行目标。如果跌破该区域，下一个支撑位将是200日均线附近的75,800美元左右。此外，比特币期权也在10月30日大量到期。长期观点请参考我们的价格预测页面。

比特币交易价格远高于两条均线，其中50日均线运行在80,000美元下方。数据来源：CoinMarketCap，自行计算。

以太坊展望：Ether恰好处于决定性位置

以太坊本周收于2,504美元， practically 位于其2,501美元的50日均线之上。ETF投资者正在对抗价格走势：自9月29日以来，美国的以太坊基金已连续九个交易日出现资金流出。如果Ether守住这条防线，上方阻力位在2,730美元左右的本周高点。如果价格跌破该水平，下周低点2,414美元以及约2,330美元的200日均线将成为关注点。更多背景信息请参阅我们的以太坊价格预测。

Ether几乎正好位于其50日均线，200日均线约为2,330美元。数据来源：CoinMarketCap，自行计算。

XRP展望：三条线汇聚于1.40美元

The situation for XRP is more compact. Prices, 50-day moving averages and 200-day moving averages are all between $1.39 and $1.40. This pattern usually doesn't last long and usually follows a clear one-way trend. On the downside, this week's low of US$1.33 is the target level; on the upside, this week's high of US$1.52 is the target level. For Ripple's recent announcements on its leveraged business, please refer to our relevant report; for scenario analysis before 2030, please refer to our XRP price forecast page.

As XRP prices and 50-day and 200-day moving averages converge, the three are between US$1.39 and US$1.40. Data source: CoinMarketCap, calculated by yourself.

Solana Outlook: The biggest loser has the biggest buffer

Solana fell 8.1% this week, the worst performer of the four major currencies. Still, the price of $109.91 is above its 50-day moving average of $107.44 and about 11% above its 200-day moving average of $98.24. From a technical perspective, network performance is better than price performance because the block generation interval is shortened to 200 milliseconds. The first downward support is this week's low of $106.41, and the upward resistance is last Sunday's high of $121.82. For a long-term perspective, please refer to our Solana Price Forecast page.

Solana has suffered the most recent decline, but remains above its 50-day moving average of about $107. Data source: CoinMarketCap, calculated by yourself.