Solana price forecast: Internet fees drop 35% in 7 days, next target price of $117

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Solana Price Analysis: $111.84 Deviations from Chain Revenue

At noon Monday, Solana traded at $111.84 (approximately 99.94 euros), up 2.2% in 24 hours. However, the real focus today is not the price itself, but the chain revenue data: In the past seven days, apps on Solana have charged US$99.6 million in fees, down 35.3% from the previous week. In comparison, prices fell by only 7.3% over the same period. This gap between "willingness to pay" and "valuation" is at the heart of this forecast, and determines whether this week's 20-day moving average ($117.05) is still in range.

For German holders, a specific operational recommendation follows: Anyone holding SOL in a portfolio can use the two key price points of $109.21 and $117.05 as a reference frame for limit orders today, rather than passively waiting for directional decisions. Which price will be broken first depends on data that anyone can verify.

Overview of market data for the day

The highest price of the day was US$113.22 and the lowest price was US$109.17. Trading volume on the entire exchange totaled US$2.43 billion, and the market value reached US$65.90 billion. As a result, Solana prices are down 7.3% from a week ago, but up 10.0% from a month ago. The above data comes from CoinGecko, as of October 12 at 9 a.m. UTC shortly before.

Average positions are more analytical than daily readings. Based on daily closing prices over the past 90 days, three key levels have emerged repeatedly in this forecast:

7-day moving average: US$112.67. Current prices are slightly below this line, indicating that the short-term trend has not yet reversed.
20-day moving average: US$117.05. This is the resistance level faced by the rebound in the past two days.
50-day moving average: US$109.21. This line carried over Friday's intraday low and is currently supporting price movements.

The 30-day high was US$122.08 and the 30-day low was US$96.87. Over the 90-day cycle, the price range ranges from $71.89 to $122.08. As a result, Solana is currently in the upper third of the quarterly range, but still below the monthly high.

Solana network fees: seven-day revenue of US$99.6 million

In the blockchain field, handling fees are equivalent to income in traditional accounting, which reflects the amount users are actually willing to pay. According to DefiLlama, apps on Solana generated $11.24 million in the past 24 hours,$99.6 million in seven days, and $467.3 million in thirty days. Weekly data dropped 35.3% from the previous week, and daily data dropped 5.8% from the previous day.

Daily series shows the path more clearly than any percentage:

October 2: US$18.75 million
October 5: US$16.75 million
October 7: US$14.31 million
October 9: US$13.91 million
October 10: US$11.94 million
October 11: US$10.75 million

It fell from US$18.75 million to US$10.75 million in nine days, a drop of 42.7%. What needs to be looked at separately is the pure raw transaction fees on the chain, which is the fees paid by users to package transactions into blocks. This item was US$753,342 in 24 hours, down from 13.7% of comparable data for the previous week. These two numbers measure different things: large items include revenue from trading venues and token platforms, while small items include only fees for using block space.

The connection between fees, MEV and SOL prices

This connection is technically more complex than it sounds and can be explained in three sentences: On Solana, 50% of each transaction fee is destroyed and the other half goes to the validator who builds the block. In addition, there are priority fees voluntarily paid by users to be at the top of crowded blocks, and MEV (maximum extractable value) benefits generated around sorting of transactions.

These three items together constitute the source of funds provided by the validator for its server and the source of revenue received by the pledger. If these revenues fall by one-third, the portion of pledge yields that come from real demand rather than newly issued tokens will shrink. This is directly related to price: the smaller the proportion of real income in yields, the more the appeal of the pledge depends on on-chain inflation, which dilutes the interests of existing holders.

Supply provides a measure. According to a direct query of the Solana Network, the total number of SOLs is 635.66 million, of which 589.11 million are freely circulating. The chain is in its 1, 055th era and has processed 559.08 billion transactions so far. At this supply, the handling fee of US$8 million per day drops, which is equivalent to a loss of approximately US$0.000136 per day per SOL in circulation, or approximately US$0.005 per year. The number is small, but it works through expectations: Anyone who values Solana as a payment infrastructure relies on fee income rather than daily closing prices.

Although blocks are still processed on the chain at a pace of 200 milliseconds, users 'willingness to pay is declining.

The 50-day moving average (US$109.21) provides support

The intraday low of US$109.17 is slightly below the 50-day moving average by four cents. As a result, prices rebounded upward immediately after touching that line, making it a reliable support level this week. As long as the daily close remains above $109.21, last week's decline is seen as a correction within the uptrend that started at a quarterly low of $71.89.

After falling below this level, it will enter an unsupported area that stretches to a 30-day low of $96.87. There is no moving average between these two values and no multiple highs of the past three months, so there is no chart-level reason to slow down the decline. Any trader using a stop loss order will face an 11.3% gap below $109.

此前 10 月 6 日文章中提到的 117 美元关口已失守。当时 SOL 交易价格约为 120 美元，20 日均线位于 117 美元并被视为支撑。六天后的答案明确无疑：该支撑位已被突破，价格跌至 109.17 美元，而同一根 117 美元均线现在位于价格上方。支撑已转变为阻力，且数值几乎相同（117.05 美元）。

在此期间发生了两则解释下跌的消息：索拉纳上的稳定币储备下降了 6.4%，且索拉纳 ETF 的资金流入连续 14 周后结束，转为流出 2,480 万美元。两者都抽离了原本会产生费用的资本。因此，手续费的崩溃并非孤立事件，而是这些资金流出在链上数据中的体现。

DEX 交易量 12.5 亿美元：第二个观察点

超越图表，链上交易的实质也值得审视。过去 24 小时内，索拉 decentralised trading venues 的去中心化交易场所成交量为 12.5 亿美元，七天内为 128.8 亿美元。周度数据较前一周下降 27.0%。索拉纳应用程序中的锁定总价值（TVL）为 62.9 亿美元；七天前为 67.3 亿美元，30 天前为 59.0 亿美元。

This presents a divided picture: from a monthly perspective, there is more capital on the chain than in early September; but from a weekly perspective, capital has decreased by 6.5%. Transactions are cooling faster than outflows of locked capital, and fees are falling faster than both. The sequence reveals the clue: speculative activity disappears first, followed by capital withdrawal.

Our assessment: Prices are firm, but revenues are weak

From the newsroom perspective, Solana's situation is split in two, and the evidence points in different directions. Factors supporting stability include: the 50-day moving average ($109.21) was accurately held on Friday, lock-in capital of $6.29 billion was above its level in early September, and the price of $111.84 was 10% higher than a month ago. The factor hindering the rapid recovery above $117 is the series of fees: revenue fell by 42.7% and transaction volume fell by 27% in nine days. When chain revenue fell by more than one-third and prices remained firm, valuations became increasingly expensive relative to the revenue actually earned on the chain.

The conclusion drawn from this is that the most likely development in the next few days is a sideways swing between $109 and $117 until fees rise again or the 50-day moving average falls below. The factor opposing this judgment is that if new funds flow into the Solana ETF, the price can exceed $117 without any change in the fee, because ETF purchases occur in the spot market and do not generate transactions on the chain. This is not a buying advice, but a positioning of key positions. Cryptocurrency assets may be at risk of full loss at any time.

Bullish and bearish scenarios: Which levels carry scenarios

Both directions can be anchored at verifiable values rather than at the target price of external research institutions:

Bullish scenarios: Daily closing prices above US$112.67 will put prices back on the 7-day moving average. The next hurdle was the 20-day moving average of $117.05, followed by a 30-day high of $122.08. The prerequisite is that fee income will increase, that is, daily data will return to more than US$14 million.
Bear scenario: A daily close below $109.21 opens a gap to $96.87. The trigger could be further ETF outflows of $24.8 million over the weekend, or daily fees of less than $10 million.

Long-term targets put forward by investment institutions are much higher, but in this scenario they are not measures because such targets describe years rather than weeks and have different fee levels when set. People citing such data must date and author.

German Investor Guide: MiCA Compliance, Fees and Taxation

Buying Solana in Germany: MiCA Exchange, Fees and Custody

Since the implementation of European cryptocurrency regulation MiCA, trading platforms need to be authorized to provide services to EU retail customers. For purchasing SOL, this means that authorized transactions need to declare their licensing and regulatory country, quarantine customer funds, and publish fees. Bid-ask spreads are often underestimated; at US$111.84 per SOL, a 0.5% spread means an additional 56 cents per unit cost. Regular buyers should not only compare order costs, but also price differences and withdrawal costs.

Post-purchase custody issues are critical. The SOL stored in the exchange belongs to the name of the exchange, while the SOL stored in the personal wallet belongs to the personal name, and the key is the responsibility of the person. For amounts above several hundred euros, a hardware wallet is a more robust option, especially because it supports direct pledges.

SOL Pledges and Taxation: EUR 1,000 threshold and one-year rule

Solana is secured by a verifier and anyone who deposits into SOL will share his income. This is where the impact of lower fees is: the portion of revenue from transaction fees and MEV shrank with the 35.3% decline in weekly statistics, while the portion from new token issues remained unchanged. Therefore, when comparing returns, focus on composition structure, not just percentages.

在税务方面，德国《所得税法》第 23 条规定的一年持有期适用于加密资产的出售：持有 SOL 超过一年，获利无需缴纳所得税。一年内获利需纳税，但每个日历年度 1,000 欧元以内的部分免税；一旦超过此门槛，全额均需纳税。质押收入单独作为其他收入计算，拥有独立的 256 欧元免税门槛。关于加密资产处理的细节，包括合作义务和记录保存要求，详见德国联邦财政部 2025 年 3 月 6 日的信函。

对今天的实际影响是：那些在 2025 年 10 月以显著较低价格买入的人，将在未来几周达到一年持有期。因此，在 109 美元至 117 美元之间的卖出操作中，每笔头寸的购买日期比价位本身更重要。