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BTC 比特币的下一个价格底部可能远超多数投资者的预期
欧洲领先的比特币财库公司之一Capital B的董事会成员亚历山大·莱泽特（Alexandre Laizet）认为，比特币的下一个价格底部可能远高于大多数投资者的预期。莱泽特指出了一项具体的催化剂：数字信贷——一种以比特币为抵押的新型上市工具。他认为，这类产品正在悄然重塑市场对比特币的需求。
为何数字信贷如此重要
“市场上对比特币的需求，是自然挖矿供给量的三倍有余。”莱泽特表示。他将数字信贷描述为一种能够让主流投资者和华尔街机构通过两位数回报率获取比特币敞口、同时将波动率控制在5%至10%以内的产品。他认为，这一市场空间极为广阔，覆盖了房地产和股票指数等各类资产。“如果标普500指数的收益率只有10%到15%，而波动率同样高达10%到15%，那为什么还要投资它呢？”他反问道——数字信贷能提供类似的收益潜力，但波动幅度却小得多。
在他看来，这种需求已经在企业购买行为中得到体现。莱泽特指出，仅Strategy公司一家，今年就在短短几个月内买入了超过20万枚比特币，他认为这是更广泛的机构增持浪潮的一部分。
解读历史底部
Leizette sorted out the pattern of gradually rising lows in the Bitcoin cycle: Bitcoin\'s price bottom climbed from $200 to $15000, and is now close to the $50000 to $60000 range. \"In about four to eight years, we will be talking about a bottom of Bitcoin of $300,000,$800,000, or even $1 million.\" he said.
He carefully defined this as pattern recognition rather than prediction. \"It\'s not science,\" he said.\"I\'m just talking about past performance. No one owns a crystal ball.\"
Facing the possibility of bearish bearishness
Leizet did not deny the downside scenario. \"The risk for everyone who owns Bitcoin is that it falls by 80% every year and doesn\'t improve for a decade.\" He admitted that this was the worst-case scenario that could be honestly inferred-even though he personally believed that Bitcoin remained the strongest store of value in the long run.
Capital B\'s own ambitions reflect this belief. The company aims to hold 210,000 bitcoins, or 1% of the total supply, by 2033. Recently, the company has raised 15 million euros and has the financing capacity to raise another 99 million euros. Leizette said the funds will be invested directly in digital credit products.
