Circle (CRCL) price target remains at $140, Bernstein says it has 59% potential for growth

Core Points

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Core Points

USDC liquidity begins to expand after a long period of stability

AI proxy payments create new growth opportunities for USDC

Bernstein reiterated his "outperform" rating on Circle, with a target price of US$140. There is about 59% room for upside compared with the closing price of US$87.98.

USDC liquidity has increased by US$1.7 billion in a week after nearly half a year of stagnation.

The analyst believes that Circle's expansion trajectory has nothing to do with whether the CLARITY bill can be passed by Congress in September

As of July 2026, The annualized operating rate of stablecoin trading volume adjusted for market-making activities has reached US$17 trillion.

Circle's Agent Stack platform now supports more than 900 paid services, and USDC accounts for 99.3% of x402 agent payment settlement volume.

Bernstein analysts continue to be optimistic about Circle Internet Group, giving it an "outperform" rating and a target price of US$140. Although the legislative prospects of the CLARITY Act remain in doubt, But they remain bullish. This valuation means there is about 59% room for upside compared with Circle's latest closing price of $87.98. In the most recent trading session, CRCL shares were quoted at $89.20, an increase of about 1.4%.

According to a research report written by analyst Gautam Chhugani on August 24, Circle's business momentum does not depend on whether Lawmakers pass proposed U.S. cryptocurrency market structure legislation in September.

The company's second-quarter revenue was $701 million, a year-on-year increase of 7%, but slightly fell short of Wall Street expectations. Circle reported net income of $48 million, or earnings per share of $0.18, above analyst consensus expectations.

USDC liquidity begins to expand after a long period of plateau

After approximately six months of little change, USDC's total supply increased by approximately $1.7 billion in just seven days. Bernstein interprets this as evidence that user adoption has regained momentum.

The research firm estimates that USDC supports approximately 80% of decentralized exchange trading activity and DeFi trading volume. After filtering out automated trading robots and high-frequency trading, adjusted stablecoin payments reached approximately US$11 trillion in 2025, and the annualized operating rate climbed to US$17 trillion in the period ending July 2026. This marks a year-on-year increase of approximately 60%.

Circle received authorization from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in July this year to establish Circle National Trust to operate as a federally regulated national trust bank. This development could eventually put USDC reserve assets under federal supervision.

Standard Chartered Bank has introduced direct USDC creation and redemption capabilities for its institutional customers. In addition, integration with Fireblocks allows institutions to manage USDC assets and convert funds into local currency for payments through Circle's payment network. The payment network's annualized transaction throughput reached US$14.7 billion at the end of the second quarter.

AI proxy payments create new growth opportunities for USDC

Bernstein emphasized that machine-to-machine payment infrastructure is an emerging part of the USDC growth story. Circle launched the Agent Stack in May, giving software agents the ability to maintain asset balances and execute programmable transactions.

By the second quarter, Agent Stack had attracted more than 900 paid service integrations, and USDC accounted for 99.3% of all x402 agent payment settlement activity. Keyrock's independent research shows that over a 12-month period, AI agents processed 176 million independent transactions totaling $73 million, of which USDC contributed to 98.6% of payment flows.

In terms of regulatory progress, Bernstein believes that if the CLARITY bill fails to pass on September 15, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are likely to issue regulatory guidance without creating operational obstacles for Circle.

In terms of competitive landscape, Mizuho downgraded Circle's rating to "underperform" in July, with a target price of US$50, citing concerns about the squeeze in profit margins caused by the Open USD cooperation framework. Circle President Heath Tarbert refuted those concerns, highlighting USDC's excellent liquidity profile and established integrated ecosystem.

Circle's cooperation pipeline continues to expand. The partnership with Japan's JCB is exploring potential applications of USDC in corporate financial operations and merchant payment systems. Strategic relationships with Kakao and Toss are studying stablecoin deployment opportunities in South Korea. In June this year, USDC also joined Bank of New York Mellon's digital asset custody platform.

Bernstein previously had a price target of $190 for Circle.