Bitcoin prices fall 4% in a week, chart movements become interesting

On September 11, Bitcoin traded at US$77,289, down 4.40% in the past seven days and 1.10% in the past 24 hours. The market value is US$1.55 trillion, and the 24-hour trading volume reaches US$30.02 billion. Looking at the longer cycle, the situation becomes less optimistic: Bitcoin has fallen 11.66% year-to-date, which means that everyone who bought on January 1 is still losing money.

Chart analysis of Bitcoin vs. US dollar

But the weekly K-line is only half of the story. The chart shows that after a sharp rally, the market has been sideways for three weeks rather than collapsing. The following is a complete technical disassembly.

Why did Bitcoin prices fall 4% this week?

This decline has little to do with cryptocurrencies and is almost entirely attributed to the Federal Reserve. Traders have been pricing interest rate hikes all week. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 16 meeting is about 60%, which is a complete reversal of the "hold still" expectations dominated at the end of August. Strong August jobs data, a record core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index) and rising oil prices related to the Iran conflict all pushed up yields, which are poison for non-interest-producing assets.

In addition, August consumer price index (CPI) data will be released at 08:30 Eastern Time. No one wanted to be in the wrong direction when inflation data was released that could determine the direction of the City and Federal Reserve meeting five days later, so the market chose to de-risk. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 56 from 74 a week ago. Although it is still in the "greedy" range, it has significantly cooled down.

It is worth noting that the spot Bitcoin ETF still attracted approximately US$987 million in inflows in the week ended September 4. This was a correction in positions ahead of a macro event, not a collapse in demand.

What technical signals do Bitcoin charts show?

If you read the 3-hour chart from left to right, it will tell a very clear story.

Rising market: Bitcoin hit a bottom in the US$62,277 to US$65,000 range in mid-August, and then rose almost vertically, rising by about 30% in about two weeks, reaching a high of US$82,283 on September 3. This trend is almost all impulsive gains, with almost no consolidation, which is crucial for the downside scenarios mentioned later in this article.

Rejected: The red arrow on the chart marked September 4, a long upper shadow line killed the breakthrough attempt, and BTC fell back into range. It was the fourth rejection since August 25 at a low of $82,000.

Oscillation range: Since then, Bitcoin has oscillated between $76,800 and $82,300, with the orange line of $78,670 serving as the pivot position. This level was used as support for three weeks. It has now become resistance and prices are currently below it.

200 EMA (exponential moving average): The blue line on the 3-hour chart is at US$76,121. Bitcoin is currently 1.5% above it. This is the most important number on the current chart, as BTC has never closed below the EMA on the 3-hour K-line since the breakout began in August.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): The 14-cycle RSI reading is 38.04 and the signal line is 35.28. The RSI approached 28 during the overnight sell-off period, entering oversold territory, and then rebounded above the moving average. This suggests a shift in short-term momentum towards buyers, although an RSI below 50 still means that the broader momentum pattern is bearish.

Also note the price and volume behavior in recent hours: a tiny 3-hour K-line with a range of only $238, opening at $77,215 and closing at $77,289. This is a form of compression above the support level, and compression at the support level usually explodes violently in one direction. CPI data will be a trigger.

Which Bitcoin support levels are critical now?

Ordered by importance:

• US$76,121: The 200 EMA on the 3-hour chart is the dividing line for the short-term structure.
• US$74,450: The last level of actual historical significance before the emergence of the vacuum zone.
• US$66,803 and US$65,000:Mark the consolidation area before the breakthrough.
• US$62,277: Bottom of August.

The gap between US$74,450 and US$66,803 is a hazardous area. Since the August rally was a nearly vertical impulse, there was almost no historical precipitation of trading volume in this range. In areas defended on an unoccupied cost basis, prices move extremely fast.

From the current position, what is the target price for Bitcoin?

Bear scenario: A closing below US$76,121 on the 3-hour chart would disrupt the post-breakthrough structure and quickly open the path to US$74,450. If $74,450 falls, moving the target from a high of $82,283 through measurement of that level would be approximately $66,650, which is almost exactly in line with the $66,803 level. This is a realistic bearish target that requires a strong CPI and a Fed rate hike to achieve.

Baseline scenario: Bitcoin held on to US$76,121 and fluctuated between US$76,000 and US$78,670 before the Municipal Fed meeting, with no one making a profit. Given that the market is waiting for two fixed events, this may be the most likely outcome in the next five days.

Bullish scenario: A return to the 3-hour chart closing above US$78,670 will flip the pivot position, bringing US$80,000 immediately back into view. On top of that,$82,283 is the ceiling held four times since August 25. A daily chart closing above $82,283 will be the first real breakthrough signal since the market started, and the next meaningful target will be the $87,497 area, which is also Bitcoin's break-even point in 2026.

The honest view is that the chart is neutral within the range, and the direction will be determined by the macro economy rather than the K-line. These levels are a basis for action rather than a prediction of outcomes.

How did altcoins perform during Bitcoin's decline?

Most mainstream currencies are underperforming Bitcoin, a typical pattern of the risk aversion cycle.

Ethereum: performed relatively well at US$2,468, with a weekly decline of only 1.77%, but it is still the worst-performing large-cap currency in 2026, down 16.81% year-to-date.

BNB: is the most stable mainstream currency, at US$715, down only 0.91% in seven days.

Solana: fell 3.90% to $99.86, losing the psychological $100 barrier.

XRP: is the clear loser among the top five, with a weekly decline of 6.45% and a year-to-date decline of 26.26% to $1.35.

The interesting part is where the money goes. TRON: has risen 3.19% weekly and 19.14% year-to-date. It is one of the few mainstream currencies in the green market in 2026. Zcash: surged 14.67% to US$1,111 in seven days and is up 116.82% this year, although it has retreated 8.77% in the past 24 hours. Hyperliquid: It fell 7.06% weekly, but still maintained its year-to-date gain of 214.74%.

Therefore, this is not a full withdrawal. Capital spun into private coins and selected high-beta targets as mainstream currencies bled. This suggests that the market is still seeking risk internally, even as it de-risks while fighting the Fed.

What should traders focus on next?

Three fixed events determine the next wave of market prices:

1. August CPI data, September 11: Moderate data will cause BTC to retest US$78,670 or even US$80,000. Strong data will test support for $76,121.
2. Senate vote on CLARITY Act, September 15: predicts that the market believes the bill has a low probability of being signed in 2026, so this is more a downside risk than an upside catalyst.
3. FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Resolution, September 16: Given current pricing, leaving interest rates unchanged would be a real surprise and could be the strongest bullish catalyst this month.

Before the dust settles on these events,$76,121 and $78,670 are the only two numbers that matter.