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BTC Bitcoin ends its 45-week slump and returns to its 50-week moving average
Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average at US$81,159, ending a 45-week hovering below important long-term technical indicators. Historical data shows that four of the five bitcoin bear markets established final lows before successfully regaining the 50-week moving average again.
For investors, Bitcoin must hold the $79,000 area as support, while its 200-week moving average provides deeper protection around $65,487.
Bitcoin (BTC) closed above the closely watched 50-week moving average for the first time in a row for 45 weeks, marking the end of a long period of below the indicator. According to Galaxy Research, Bitcoin closed at $81,159 for the week of September 20, about 3% above the moving average of $78,786. This weekly close marks the first time since November 9, 2025 that Bitcoin has successfully exceeded this long-term key level.
Although Bitcoin hit a record high of more than US$126,000 on October 6, 2025, and then lost momentum in the broad market correction, even if this indicator is regained, BTC is still about 36% lower than the record, leaving room for buyers to recover.
Why the 50-week moving average matters
The 50-week moving average tracks weekly closing prices for nearly a year, helping traders measure the direction of Bitcoin's broader market. During sustained bull markets, BTC usually trades above this line, while prolonged declines tend to keep prices below it.
Galaxy Research将这一平均值描述为主要熊市期间的“天花板”，因为复苏尝试往往难以有效突破它。此外，历史上失去该水平通常预示着大幅回调，因此其收复对长期市场参与者具有重要意义。
来自五次已完成的比特币熊市的数据显示，其中有四次在收复50周均线之前确立了最终低点。研究人员还发现在已完成的熊市中，共有13次周线穿越该指标向上，其中仅有两次后续出现了更低的价格低点。然而，2021年和2022年的下跌提供了重要警示，因为比特币曾两次短暂收复该均线后进一步下跌。
比特币面临79,000美元附近的關鍵支撐測試
因此，如果没有在新恢复的阈值上方持续交易，仅一次周线收盘无法确认市场反转的持久性。比特币目前也远高于其200周移动平均线，该均线目前位于65,487美元，为其价格提供了更深层的支撑。
79,000美元附近的区域现在成为主要测试点，因为它与重新收复的50周均线紧密吻合。守住这一区域可以将之前的阻力转化为支撑，同时增强市场信心，认为比特币已经形成了市场底部。
Conversely, a weekly close below the indicator would weaken the momentum of the breakthrough and raise concerns about another failed attempt at recovery. Bitcoin's return to above the 45-week barrier has improved its technical structure, but the firmness of support will determine the sustainability of this trend.
