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以太坊反弹至2600美元，质押供应量达35.56%，ETF增持167亿美元

2026-09-21 20:20:49

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以太坊价格反弹至2,600美元上方，质押供应占比达35.56%，ETF资产规模增至167亿美元

本月早些时候经历大幅下跌后，以太坊（Ethereum）的价格已回升至2,500美元以上。9月16日，该加密货币曾短暂触及2,360美元的低点，随后迅速反弹至2,668美元，最终稳定在2,600美元附近。尽管出现这一复苏迹象，但ETH价格仍较2025年10月创下的约4,946美元的历史高点下跌了约47%。

交易所余额下降引发供应紧缩

近期的价格恢复与ETH供应动态的发展密切相关。自2025年5月以来，以太坊的交易所余额已从1,480万枚ETH降至2,570万枚ETH，降幅达28%。这一减少表明可供立即出售的代币数量减少，如果投资者需求上升，这将对价格走势产生显著影响。

交易所内流通供应的收缩意味着交易活动对情绪变化和新增需求的敏感度更高，从而放大了上行和下行波动性。

质押活动与ETF资金流入巩固锁定供应

随着资金流出，质押活动也在同步进行。在过去一年中，被质押的ETH比例稳步上升，从2025年9月的29.8%增至2026年9月18日的35.56%。大多数被质押的ETH因参与者将其锁定以支持网络运营并获取奖励，实际上已脱离活跃交易循环。

微型词典：质押（Staking）refers to the process of locking cryptocurrencies to help verify transactions and ensure the security of blockchain networks. Participants will usually receive additional tokens as a reward, but these tokens will be removed from regular circulation during the pledge period.

The funding rate remains at around 0.0046, indicating that market leverage has not increased with the increase in pledge volume. This suggests a more stable trading environment compared to periods of high-leverage speculation.

The U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) has captured a net inflow of approximately US$13.25 billion, and the total assets of the Ethereum ETF currently reach US$16.7 billion. This figure accounts for approximately 5.2% of Ethereum's market value. Among them, BlackRock's ETHA fund leads the sector with more than US$9 billion in asset management.

Indicators Current value Changes/Comments ETH Price $2,600 Down 47% from the October 2025 peak Exchange balance 25.7 million ETH 28% decline since May 2025 Pledge ETH 35.56% An increase of 29.8% compared with last year ETH ETF Assets $16.7 billion 5.2% of market value

ETF inflows fluctuated in September. There were more than $400 million outflows in midweek, but the impact was partially offset by an inflow of $143.8 million on September 18.

Technology and network upgrades bring mixed outlook

对于年底前的ETH走势预测，市场观点依然分歧。Fundstrat的Tom Lee表示，如果比特币上涨至150,000美元且ETH/BTC比率升至0.04，ETH有望达到6,000美元。相比之下，前BitMEX首席执行官、知名加密投资者Arthur Hayes通过增持ETH表达了他的乐观态度，他认为到2026年底，价格达到10,000美元是可能的。

其他分析师则更为谨慎。渣打银行加密研究主管Geoff Kendrick维持其2026年底ETH目标价为4,000美元的观点。花旗集团分析师甚至设定了低至2,240美元的一年期目标。

目前，ETH交易在其50日和200日移动平均线之上，分别为2,272.50美元和2,076.10美元。技术分析显示，2,655美元至2,672美元区间存在阻力；若能突破该区域，可能为迈向2,800美元甚至3,000美元铺平道路，而若发生反转，支撑位可能回落至2,400美元附近。

Tom Lee预计，如果比特币达到150,000美元且ETH/BTC比率回归0.04，以太坊可能在年底前涨至6,000美元。与此同时，Arthur Hayes将以太坊视为其主要持仓，认为2026年底实现10,00美元的目标具有可能性。

以太坊下一次计划中的网络升级“Glamsterdam”也即将来临。Sepolia测试网定于10月6日启用，主网升级预计将在2026年第四季度进行。此次更新旨在提高交易吞吐量，实现并行执行，并扩展Blob容量以提升效率。

截至9月20日，以太坊价格仍维持在2,600美元附近，ETH/BTC比率约为0.032。

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