XLM's upside potential: Can Stellar outperform XRP in the next 6 months?

Summary

Small market capitalization gives XLM upside potential

Tokenized assets and stablecoins drive Stellar growth

Soroban platform and institutional interest supports this argument

Scenarios and risks facing XLM upside potential

Core Views

In the second quarter of 2026, the scale of tokenized assets on the Stellar network exceeded the US$3 billion mark, having previously crossed the US$1 billion and US$2 billion milestones. According to data from the Stellar Development Foundation (SDF), the volume of stablecoin transfers on Stellar reached a record high of US$11.4 billion during the same period.

Because XLM has a relatively small market value, moderate capital inflows can trigger larger percentage price fluctuations than XRP. However, network growth does not equate to an increase in token prices, and value may not flow to native tokens.

XLM's upside potential is being re-examined as new analysis compares Stellar's performance with XRP over the next six months. The author believes that XLM is likely to outperform XRP between October 2026 and April 2027. This view is based on Stellar's small market capitalization base and growing tokenized asset activity. The authors emphasize that this is not a deterministic forecast or buy recommendation; in contrast, XRP still has stronger institutional influence in the global payments and finance sectors.

Small market capitalization shapes XLM's upside potential

The market value of XRP is much larger than that of XLM. This gives XRP deeper liquidity, market depth and higher institutional attention. The analysis compared the two assets in terms of positioning, market capitalization, and ecosystem: XRP is closely related to Ripple, XRPL, and RLUSD, while XLM is related to Stellar, Soroban, and real-world assets (RWA).

However, larger assets require more capital to achieve the same percentage increase. XLM starts from a small base, so moderate capital inflows may drive greater volatility in its price at the percentage level. This view was shared by social media user "Stellar XLM Holder". The author added that XLM does not need to reach XRP's valuation level. As long as the gap is partially narrowed, it will still be enough to enhance XLM's upside potential.

Tokenized assets and stablecoins drive Stellar's growth

Data from the Stellar Development Foundation shows that in the second quarter of 2026, the scale of tokenized assets on the Internet exceeded US$3 billion. Earlier this year, the network had crossed the $1 billion and $2 billion threshold respectively.

In addition, Stellar's stablecoin transfers reached a record high of US$11.4 billion in the second quarter of 2026. Tokenized assets on Stellar can represent bonds, money market funds, gold, private credit, digital dollars, etc. The author describes this as a real financial application, rather than just a theoretical payment network.

The analysis pointed out that asset tokenization has become one of the main structural narratives in the industry. Stellar is actively deploying this market, and the authors link this trend to XLM's upside potential.

Soroban and institutional interest supports this argument

Stellar also operates Soroban, a smart contract platform. Analysts believe that Soroban enables the network to host decentralized financial applications and institutional use cases.

The authors said that combining fast payments, stablecoins, tokenization, smart contracts and compliance can broaden the valuation logic. Stellar Development Foundation has noted that institutional initiatives targeting tokenized financial markets are advancing. The ecosystem is expanding in areas such as stablecoins, money market funds, tokenized bonds, private credit, and cross-border payments.

XRP still retains institutional advantages. Ripple has expanded its operations and its payment infrastructure in Europe while developing the XRPL ecosystem and RLUSD. The author believes that this makes comparisons with XLM interesting.

Scenarios and risks to XLM's upside potential

The analysis outlines three scenarios from October 2026 to April 2027. The author points out that the crypto market is driven by narratives, and catalysts may converge and trigger repricing. Amid weak markets and capital leaning towards Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP may continue to maintain its advantage.

在温和复苏的情境下，RWA和稳定币的增长可能使XLM的表现优于XRP。在强劲的牛市阶段，由于XLM起始估值较低，这种差距可能会进一步扩大。作者称，“追赶效应”是最具投机性的因素。

作者注意到，网络增长并不保证价格增长。区块链可以托管更多资产，而无需价值流向其原生代币。

需关注的指标包括XLM的需求、流动性、稳定币交易量、开发者活动以及机构采用率。在这些条件下，XLM的上行潜力取决于需求是否最终落实到代币本身。