Bitcoin (BTC) hit an August high at the opening of Wall Street on Friday as the market reacted to weak U.S. jobs data.
Key Points:
U.S. non-farm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, and crypto and risky assets rose accordingly.
The Federal Reserve's September interest rate forecast shifted from a 0.25% interest rate hike to a pause due to signs of weakness in the labor market.
According to analysis by QCP Capital, Bitcoin and altcoins remain "resilient" after a week of negative surprises.
Non-agricultural data was weak, cryptocurrencies and stocks rose
TradingView data showed that after the latest U.S. labor market data was released, BTC/USD hit US$65,340 on Bitstamp, up 1.3% on the day.
Four-hour chart of BTC/USD
According to non-farm payrolls data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. jobs fell by 23,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%. The agency said the figures were "not much changed" from the previous month.
"The change in total non-farm employment in May was revised downward by 66,000, from +129,000 to +63,000; in June, it was revised by 37,000, from +57,000 to +20,000. After these revisions, employment figures in May and June combined were 103,000 lower than previously reported." An official statement added.
The combined downward revision of negative July data appears to have boosted cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks, with traders linking labor market weakness to possible Fed easing policy. The S & P 500 index opened up 0.5%, while the technology-dominated Nasdaq Composite Index rose slightly more than 1%.
CME Group's FedWatch tool data shows that the market currently expects the Fed to maintain current interest rates at its September meeting. As of yesterday, most people were betting on a 0.25% rate hike.
Comparison of probability of target interest rates at the Federal Reserve's September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting
Ahead of the release of employment data, Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, said this would "set the tone" for the September meeting and the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in late August. Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank in Switzerland, predicts that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will be affected by the extent of the decline in employment data. "An orderly slowdown supports expectations of loose liquidity, and if the data is weak enough to raise growth concerns, risk assets could remain under pressure even if interest rate expectations change." He said in a comment sent to Xiaobian.
Analysts praised the "resilience" of Bitcoin and altcoins.
Trading firm QCP Capital described the macro situation as an "uncertainty factor" for Bitcoin in its crypto and macro overview released on the same day.
"For cryptocurrencies, this week's price movements indicate resilience rather than clear confirmation of the direction of the trend." The company concluded. QCP pointed out that the Coldcard wallet breach and the Bitcoin sell-off by companies such as Strategy have only triggered "limited panic hedging demand" in the options market.

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