INJ prices break through 200-day moving average, Injective releases upgrade

INJ fell nearly 10% in a single day and is now trading at the 200-day moving average.

The trading volume this time is about a quarter of that of the previous rising market. The RSI is weak but not yet oversold, nor has it formed a bullish divergence.

Aggressive completed two main-network upgrades this summer, but the token price did not rise as a result.

On Thursday, Injective's INJ token fell to $4.17, a drop of 9.97% in 24 hours and a weekly decline of 7.87%, reducing the network's market value to $417.11 million.

The daily price of Binance opened at 4.611, then fell all the way to 4.160, and finally stabilized around 4.204, with a drop of 8.83%. The move sent prices below the 0.618 Fibonacci pullback level of 4.491 and hit the 200-day simple moving average of 4.126-levels that have supported every pullback since mid-July. The decline was 568,890 INJ, a detail that added to the complexity of the originally bearish interpretation.

The June Top ended a 170% gain in a single trading day.

From the beginning of April to the first week of June, INJ rose from 2.719 to 7.356, with the 50-day moving average running below it as support. The top trend is very fierce. After the price soared to 7.356, a large negative line appeared in a single trading day, almost wiping out the last increase, and this negative line created the largest volume in the entire rise. Huge amounts in the reversal pattern usually mean that large holders are selling in strength.

INJ/USDT daily chart fell below 4.491 and moved towards the 200-day moving average.

Everything since then has shown a series of lower highs: 7.35 in June, about 6.15 later in the same month, 5.55 at the end of July, and 5.20 at the beginning of August. The 50-day moving average, which served as a floor in the spring, has now turned into a ceiling and is currently at 4.821, well above spot prices.

There is no structural support between 4.126 and 3.712

The upper rail pressure line that constitutes the downtrend channel in July and August was very effective, stopping prices from rising three times while remaining close to the 50-day moving average. Trend line resistance and moving average resistance reinforce each other, forming a solid ceiling.

The evidence for the lower rail support line is weaker, essentially a parallel line based on a clear point of touch, and Thursday's candle line fell directly through it.

Conditions below spot prices quickly become sparse. The 200-day moving average is at 4.126, the only defense line nearby, but it is in the blank space between two Fibonacci levels and has not been strengthened by either side, so it bears all the pressure alone. This level did hold on to the July 14 low of 4.160, so there are recent records. Below this, there is no support until the 0.786 callback level 3.712, there is about 10% vacuum zone in the middle, and only the channel projection level 3.910 serves as a soft reference in this interval. Once the market loses a held level and there is no support below, it tends to go down quickly.

568,000 vs. 3.5 million that drove the chart in May

The impact of a breakthrough depends on the participation behind it. Thursday's 568,890 INJ needs to be compared with the performance of the same chart at other turning points: breakthrough volume in May reached 3.5 million, top volume in June exceeded 2.5 million, and panic down-shadow volume in July was close to 2 million. A 9% fluctuation crossed two important levels, and its trading volume was only about a quarter of what was needed in previous markets. Institutional liquidations often leave a heavier footprint.

On the contrary, this is more like a sign of thin liquidity in the summer: a small amount of selling can push prices further because there are fewer orders on the order book and the selling pressure cannot be absorbed. This does not mean that the trend is bullish. It means the breakthrough lacks confirmation, which will only occur when volume expands on Friday. The probability of reversal of a low volume breakthrough is higher than that of a high volume breakthrough. Sometimes, low-volume breakthroughs come the day before the huge negative line appears, rather than replacing it.

The RSI is 36, and prices fall in sync with momentum.

A reading below 30 is a traditional oversold sign, so the current RSI is 36.04 and the signal line is 43.48, indicating that the token is weak but has not yet been completely cleaned. A more useful observation is divergence. When prices hit lower lows and the RSI hit higher lows, it means that the momentum below the falling market is improving, which usually signals a rebound. But this did not happen. Prices hit lower lows, the RSI also hit lower lows, and the July bottom also occurred when the RSI was at more than 30 times.

Vulcan, native USDC and 800 developers in Hangzhou

Price movements do not reflect what Imjective delivers.

The June version of Vulcan adds native USDC support, opens up new real-world asset markets, and cuts oracle gas costs by approximately 90%. The second upgrade, IIP-677, was launched last month after passing governance with a 72% approval rating, expanding cross-chain asset routing and settlement reliability. Major exchanges completed the upgrade without suspending trading, which is much more difficult than it sounds.

Institutional finance relies on reliability, and Injective is constantly strengthening its infrastructure.

Last month, Aggressive implemented another mainnetwork upgrade, building on the June Vulcan release, adding native USDC, new real-world asset markets, and cutting oracle gas costs by approximately 90%. Mainly... -- Injective(@Injective) August 12, 2026

Developer interest also points in the same direction. At the 2026 AdventureX Conference in Hangzhou, 800 developers selected from more than 9000 applicants spent five days developing, with an average age of 21. More than 50 projects come from the Impressive Track, accounting for approximately 30% of all projects submitted, covering AI agents, robots, games, stablecoins and tokenized assets.

This is a network of extremely fast products and an expanding developer funnel, with a valuation of just $417 million. At this stage of the cycle, token prices follow liquidity and funding rotations more than project delivery; an agreement can deliver products for multiple consecutive quarters, but the market is slow to re-price.

Friday's close will determine which scenario is playing out.

If the closing price falls below 4.126, it will confirm the loss of the 200-day moving average and Fibonacci structure, and bring the range of 3.91 to 3.71 into view, with a rapid recovery of 4.491 being the only failure condition. If prices close back at that level, Thursday's low of 4.160 could be seen as a liquidity cleanup, but this interpretation holds only if volume expands with the rebound. Traders planning for the second scenario should pay attention to the upper resistance: 4.491, 50-day moving average of 4.821, and 0.5 pullback level of 5.038 gather within the 12% range, forming a dense ceiling that is difficult to break through for a low-confidence rebound.

One catalyst worth tracking separately: Injective's RWA market and native USDC infrastructure put it directly in the tokenized segment of institutional capital inflows in 2026. If an asset management company or regulated exchange conducts settlement through this chain, it will fundamentally change the current price base, which currently does not have any technical level to price.