Bitcoin ETF inflows surge, but BTC faces deeper correction risk

Key insights

Bitcoin ETF inflows reached US$3.8 billion during a three-week consecutive buying period. Inflows slowed sharply on Friday after fund demand surged Thursday. Bitcoin prices fell to around $80,000 as interest rate expectations put pressure on risky assets.

In the three weeks ended September 4, U.S. -listed spot Bitcoin ETF products attracted approximately US$3.8 billion in capital inflows. This period marks the strongest three-week inflow period in 2026. As demand for listed funds resumes, Bitcoin is trading at close to $80,000.

Although inflows showed stronger demand for funds, they failed to prevent Friday's price reversal. Strong jobs data has raised concerns about interest rates and put pressure on risky assets. The move led Bitcoin to test important weekly technical positions.

Bitcoin ETF inflows suffered a price reversal on Friday

SoValue records showed net inflows of US$986.9 million in the latest week. Farside Investors reported a slightly lower total of $986.7 million based on its daily data. The $200,000 difference did not change the broader three-week trend.

Daily capital flow of spot Bitcoin ETF from Monday to Friday. Source: SoSoValue

SoValue puts cumulative three-week inflows at nearly US$3.8 billion, the strongest such period in 2026. Cumulative net capital inflows into U.S. products reached $55.6 billion. However, after early divestments, inflows in 2026 are still roughly negative US$1 billion.

Farside data showed that the fund attracted $730.8 million in funding on Thursday. Funding flows then fell sharply to $174.6 million on Friday. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust attracted $117.4 million, while Fidelity's fund increased $57.2 million.

As of September 4, BlackRock listed IBIT's net assets as US$62.52 billion. SoSoValue placed combined industry assets at $101.3 billion, giving IBIT approximately 62% of the market. BlackRock also reported a daily decline in the fund's net asset value of 2.14%.

Bitcoin price reversal on institutional demand

CoinGecko records show that the price of Bitcoin was US$79,671 on September 4. The asset was trading at $81,265 in the previous trading day, implying a decline of nearly 2%. Daily trading volume increased to $39.84 billion from $26.62 billion on Thursday.

BTC price trend chart. Source: CoinGecko

CoinGecko data showed that Friday's trading range extended from approximately $78,700 to $81,300. However, BTC prices were still 2.6% higher within seven days. The weekly gain reflected a previous rebound rather than a strong performance in Friday's trading.

This reversal shows that fund demand has not fully offset the selling pressure at the macro level. Before the release of U.S. employment data, Bitcoin encountered resistance around $82,400. Market commentator Rain said this resistance created the initial correction pattern.

Rain described the employment report as a trigger rather than a root cause. He said the strong hiring data weakened the Fed's case for lowering interest rates. This interpretation linked Friday's decline to policy expectations rather than weakening cryptocurrency fundamentals.

Bitcoin ETF demand faces the test of 50-week moving average

Analyst Ted Pillows pointed out that Bitcoin prices once again fell below its 50-week moving average. He determined that the weekly closing price was the main technical confirmation signal. Pillows wrote that if the closing price is above that moving average, control will return to the buyer.

Source: Ted Pillows

Another close below this moving average will strengthen the view that a deep correction will be made. Therefore, this indicator represents a decision-making area rather than a guarantee of direction. Price behavior around this level has greater weight than intraday breakthroughs.

CoinGecko's low of US$78,700 provided the most recent observed downside reference on Friday. An intraday high of $81,300 constituted the first immediate recovery level. Subsequently, Bitcoin will face the reported $82,400 resistance zone.

Futures and macro data define the next catalyst

CoinGlass data shows that as of September 5, open interest in bitcoin futures was approximately US$54.42 billion. The platform also recorded $57.16 billion in 24-hour futures trading volume. These totals cover centralized derivatives sites tracked by CoinGlass.

This derivative base may amplify the volatility of surrounding technical boundaries. However, open interest alone does not establish a bullish or bearish direction. Traders still need confirmation of prices and funding rates to draw stronger conclusions about positions.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said U.S. employers added 162,000 non-farm jobs in August. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1% for the month. The agency added that the labor participation rate rose slightly to 61.6%.

Source: X

The agency revised up salary increases in June and July to a total of 55,000 jobs. Average hourly wages increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year. Rain linked the release of the report to the repricing of interest rate expectations.

CME FedWatch derives policy probabilities based on 30-day federal funds futures prices. The Fed is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting on September 15 - 16. Data due for release on September 11 could reshape market expectations ahead of the meeting.

Bitcoin now faces an immediate test between Friday's low and its 50-week moving average. A weekly close above that moving average may support the recovery towards $81,300 and $82,400. If it fails, the observed support level of $78,700 will be exposed in subsequent trading weeks.

This document is for reference only and does not constitute financial advice. The cryptocurrency market may experience drastic price fluctuations.