Exchange Ranking
Top Exchanges
24h Volume Ranking
Popularity Ranking
Exchange BTC Balance
Proof of Reserves
Decentralized Exchanges
Funding Rate
Funding Heatmap
Liquidation Data
Max Pain
Long/Short Ratio
Whale L/S Ratio
Binance/Okex/Huobi L/S
Bitfinex Margin L/S
ETF Tracker
Solana ETF
XRP ETF
Hong Kong ETF
Bitcoin Treasuries
Crypto Reversal
Ethereum Reserves
HyperLiquid Wallet Analysis
Hyperliquid Whale Watch
Large Transactions
On-chain Movement
Bitcoin ROI
Stablecoin Market Cap
Options Analysis
News
Articles
Economic Calendar
Features
Wallet
Contract Calculator
Security
Collections
Watchlist
Following
BTC Uncertainty at the bottom of the Bitcoin cycle: Willy Woo's key assessment
In August, Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, achieved a significant rise, with its price climbing from approximately $62,000 to more than $80,000. Although this increase has increased market expectations that the July level of $58,000 will be the bottom of BTC, the recent correction has reignited debate about whether this level truly constitutes the bottom of the current market cycle.
According to senior analysts, online data showed that investors purchased much less than expected during the decline. Chain analyst Willy Woo cited the "HODL Waves" indicator as saying that during the July decline, relatively few investors made purchases and that these purchases may have come from a single large investor (i.e., the "whale").
Woo pointed out that when Bitcoin fell to approximately US$57,800 on July 1, the proportion of Bitcoin in the total supply was only 1.97% that was inactive for 1 to 7 days, and by July 5, this proportion rose to 2.35%. The "HODL Waves" indicator is used to track the behavioral pattern of new buyers entering the market after prices fall sharply.
In this context, Woo emphasized that in previous major bitcoin corrections, investors tended to respond quickly to price declines and buy in large quantities, but this phenomenon did not occur in July. He pointed out that relatively limited activity on the chain suggests that bottom-hunting funds are slowly accumulating and purchases may be driven by a single large investor, which is extremely rare. This suggests that the buying pace at the bottom may be slow and limited, and there may even be situations where a single large investor has a significant impact on the market.
Therefore, the analyst believes that the July $58,000 region cannot be recognized as the decisive bottom of the cycle, and subsequent price movements of Bitcoin will determine whether this level truly becomes a long-term basis.
Bitcoin demand is recovering, but still not enough to support the bull market
Although Bitcoin market demand shows signs of recovery, on-chain data has not yet confirmed a strong and sustainable bull market. Julio Moreno, research director of CryptoQuant, pointed out that Bitcoin's "Apparent Demand" indicator has returned to a positive range, indicating that the imbalance between supply and demand in the market is gradually improving in the near future. However, according to Moreno's analysis, this recovery is not enough to conclude the beginning of a new strong bull market for Bitcoin.
Analyst pointed out that the main problem is that the recovery in demand has not yet translated into strong capital inflows. Moreno believes that the current recovery in demand is similar to the level seen during the restrictive recovery in 2024, but it is far from the strong and sustained demand growth that has supported Bitcoin prices in the second half of 2024 and 2025.
To sum up, Moreno pointed out that the Bitcoin market is currently in a stable stage, manifested by a decline in demand and stagnation rather than a widespread surge in demand. In other words, selling pressure in the market is easing, but a strong enough buyer base has not yet been formed to drive a new wave of gains. Therefore, turning the current recovery into a true bull market will require stronger and more sustained capital inflows.
