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FollowingTD Securities significantly raised its expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates: Three interest rates are expected during the year
Affected by the stronger-than-expected performance of U.S. inflation data, TD Securities significantly revised its policy forecast for the Federal Reserve. Previously, the agency's strategists had expected the Fed to keep interest rates stable for the rest of 2026, but now the view has shifted to a total of three rate hikes will be implemented, with the first rate hike likely beginning in September.
Strategic Core Views
In a research note, TD Securities strategists Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg pointed out that they predict that the Fed will raise interest rates for the first time in September, followed by two increases in October and January 2027.
strategists said: "We expect a total of three interest rate hikes in this cycle. We expect the next two rate hikes to occur in October this year and January next year."
In addition, the agency believes that the Fed may not provide clear guidance on future interest rate movements after the meeting, but a "dot chart" showing officials 'interest rate expectations may reveal a hawkish stance.
Changes in inflation reshape market expectations
The root cause of TD Securities 'revision of this forecast is that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data in August exceeded market consensus expectations. The higher inflation data has heightened concerns that price pressures are not falling at the desired pace, and has also strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in the short term.
The report pointed out: "Given that August CPI data shows sluggish inflation progress, we expect the Federal Reserve to start a rate hike cycle in September."
