Bitcoin stabilizes above $77,500, Fed uncertainty and ETF outflows limit gains

Bitcoin fluctuates around US$77,600, with US$80,000 resistance and ETF outflows suppressing prices

On Monday, Bitcoin traded close to US$77,600, rising 0.5% in the past 24 hours, but after many attempts, it was still difficult to regain its footing at the US$80,000 mark. According to CoinGecko data, the cryptocurrency rebounded from an intraday low of $76,500, briefly breaking through $77,750 and then fell back slightly. Its performance on the seventh day remained negative, with a drop of 2.9%.

Strong resistance in the US$80,000 to US$82,000 range and weakening institutional demand

Previously, after hitting the US$82,000 range in early September, Bitcoin encountered a lot of selling pressure, causing prices to decline. Analysts at QCP Capital pointed out that the $80,000 to $82,000 range constitutes a significant resistance band, while support is concentrated between $77,000 and $78,000. Since encountering obstacles in early September, seller power has forced BTC into a narrow range of shocks, with buyers mainly intervening around US$76,000 to US$77,000.

Bitfinex analysts have positioned the benchmark cost for active Bitcoin investors at approximately $76,350, believing this is a critical position where demand is sufficient to absorb additional selling pressure. BTC briefly tested the area in the past 24 hours before recovering above $77,500.

Institutional demand for bitcoin through U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has weakened significantly. Data showed that these funds recorded a net outflow of $46.6 million on September 8, followed by larger withdrawals of $120.2 million and $282.7 million on September 9 and 10, respectively. Although the ETF flow turned slightly positive on September 11, recording a net inflow of US$6 million, the cumulative net outflow in the first three days was nearly US$450 million. Current ETF purchases are well below the levels that previously pushed Bitcoin towards $82,000.

CoinShares 'research links the recent flow of digital asset funds to changes in U.S. interest rate expectations. The asset management company emphasized that uncertainty about monetary policy is the main factor preventing Bitcoin from exceeding $80,000 before the next Federal Reserve decision.

The Fed meeting and macro uncertainty exacerbated market volatility

The strong U.S. employment data in August exceeded expectations, changing market expectations for the September Fed meeting. The U.S. economy added 162,000 new jobs, far exceeding the forecast of 55,000 to 56,000. As a result, Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar both rose, amid speculation that the central bank might consider raising interest rates again. In this context, it is difficult for Bitcoin to break through the established resistance level.

Derivatives positions reflect continued uncertainty. CoinGlass data shows that the value of Bitcoin open interest is US$50.9 billion, and the funding rate is slightly positive. Aggressive trader activity remains biased towards sellers, indicating that leverage remains high and demand for spot ETFs declines.

Responding to these rapid market changes has become increasingly complex. In an environment where a single Federal Reserve statement or a sudden launch of altcoins can trigger sharp swings in seconds, many traders are turning to privacy protection tools. These solutions provide integrated real-time charts, price alerts, news and macro indicators on one screen, allowing users to track positions and react quickly without registering or switching between multiple applications, avoiding costly delays.

Technical Outlook: Key Price Focus

On the daily chart, Bitcoin remains above the 50th, 100th and 200th simple moving averages (SMA). SMA on the 50th was US$71,402, on the 200th it was US$70,189, and on the 100th it was US$67,332. Current prices are more than 8% above all these averages. However, if it falls below US$76,350, BTC may be exposed to the US$71,400 support area; if selling accelerates, the US$70,000 to US$71,400 area may be of concern.

Despite trading above the key moving average, buying momentum has waned. The intraday Chaikin oscillator has fallen to about-1.11K after peaking above 4K during the August rally, indicating that net allocation has exceeded accumulation in recent trading days. As BTC hovers around $77,500, the continued decline in the oscillator suggests a lack of support for funding flows to break through $80,000. If the oscillator returns above the zero axis and the price is pushed above $80,000, it is expected to test the $82,000 again and eventually challenge the $84,000 area.

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin consolidated mainly between $76,000 and $80,000 after being rejected by $82,000. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) showed a +DI of 19.69 and a-DI of 15.19, slightly favoring the buyer. However, the average directionality index (ADX) was only 19.54, indicating a lack of strong trend momentum. To continue to exceed US$80,000,+DI needs to expand relative to-DI and ADX increases.

The flow of funds index (MFI) recovered to 51.65 after falling below 30, indicating a rebound in short-term buying pressure. However, this is a far cry from the aggressive demand seen previously when climbing towards $80,000. If BTC stands above $80,000 at a four-hour close and DMI and MFI readings strengthen between 60 and 70, there is a greater chance of a return to $82,000. However, if it fails to exceed US$78,000, US$76,350 will become immediate support. If this level falls, the next support will be US$75,000.

Bitcoin's trading range is still limited by resistance near $80,000 to $82,000, while buy orders in the $76,000 to $77,000 area continue to absorb selling pressure. Market participants are closely watching macro signals and ETF flows for signs of decisive breakthroughs.