Bitcoin options lead $16.6 billion in cryptocurrency maturities in the third quarter

比特币与以太坊期权总名义价值近166亿美元，2026年第三季度到期持仓构建完毕

据Coinbase Markets数据显示，为2026年9月季度到期日准备的比特币和以太坊期权总名义价值接近166亿美元。在两个市场中，看涨期权（Call）的未平仓合约数均超过看跌期权（Put）。

市场数据概览

比特币（BTC）：

• 名义价值：约147.3亿美元
• 未平仓合约数：18.6万份
• 整体看跌/看涨比率（Put-Call Ratio）：0.52
• 最大痛点价格（Max Pain）：72,000美元

以太坊（ETH）：

• 名义价值：约19.2亿美元
• 未平仓合约数：75.61万份
• 看跌/看涨比率：0.57
• 最大痛点价格：2,200美元

Coinbase Markets在其9月15日的市场更新中指出，比特币占据了大部分名义价值，而以太坊虽然名义价值较小，但其未平仓合约数量更高。Deribit交易所的官方到期政策显示，2026年第三季度合约将于9月25日（季度最后一个周五）UTC时间08:00结算。

比特币期权分布：偏向高位行权价

比特币占Coinbase Markets报告的合并名义价值的近89%。当前的看跌/看涨比率为0.52，表明看跌期权的未平仓量低于看涨期权，市场情绪整体偏向多头。

Coinbase Markets识别出最大的比特币看涨期权集中度位于70,000美元附近，同时在85,000美元、90,000美元直至100,000美元行权价处仍有可观的看涨未平仓量。该公司将这种结构描述为“偏向较高行权价”。

比特币的最大痛点水平设定在72,000美元。“最大痛点”是指在模型下，使得最大数量的期权价值归零的行权价。它并不代表保证的结算价格或确认的支持位。正如此前报道的那样，在8月份64亿美元的比特币期权到期事件中，低看跌/看涨比率和最大痛点水平仅显示了市场定位，并未决定比特币的最终价格。

在9月15日的交易中，根据市场数据，比特币价格维持在78,000美元附近。Investing.com的历史数据显示，BTC在该时段收盘价约为77,900美元，现货价格高于72,000美元的最大痛点水平，但低于85,000美元、90,000美元和100,000美元的较高行权价。

在季度结算前，衍生品市场的定位显示出对上行敞口的需求。分析师指出，下行保护主要集中在68,000至75,000美元之间，而看涨头寸则押注于突破80,000美元的价格走势。

以太坊期权焦点：3,000美元行权价

Ethereum accounts for a relatively small proportion of the nominal value of the merger, but has a large number of open contracts. Coinbase Markets reported that there are approximately 756,100 Ethereum option contracts with a nominal value of $1.92 billion and a put/call ratio of 0.57.

Ethereum's largest call option concentration is at the exercise price of US$3,000, where there are approximately 43,000 contracts. Note that some secondary reports mistakenly listed it as US$30,000, but the original post from Coinbase Markets clearly stated it as US$3,000.

Ethereum's maximum pain point level is close to $2,200. According to market data from Investing.com, ETH prices fluctuated around US$2,510 during the September 15 trading session, with spot prices above the maximum pain point level but below the US$3,000 exercise price, which carries the maximum bullish concentration.

The price of US$3,000 has also appeared in recent technical forecasts. Analysts said if the weekly close firmly above the $2,550 area, it could open a path to $3,000. However, this is only a technical analysis and evaluation and does not establish the exact trading price of Ethereum when it expires.

There are more calls than puts, but there is no guarantee that prices will rise

Coinbase described the market structure in the third quarter as biased towards higher strike prices because both Bitcoin and Ethereum have more open interest interest on call options than put options. 0.52 The BTC ratio of 0.57 and the ETH ratio of 0.57 clearly show the numerical tilt of call options in open interest contracts.

然而，以看涨为主的头寸并不意味着所有交易者都预期价格上涨。期权既可以买入也可以卖出，专业交易者通常通过价差策略、对冲和波动率策略组合使用看涨和看跌期权。此前的分析曾指出，开放兴趣数据虽显示看似看多的定位，但并未揭示每一份看涨期权是否代表方向性的多头头寸。

加密货币衍生品市场的活跃度持续保持高位。根据Deribit的月度统计数据，8月份比特币期权周转额达到561.3亿美元，以太坊期权周转额为71.4亿美元。当月BTC成交量为775,731份期权合约，而ETH合约数超过323万份。

当前的9月到期规模大于近期报道中的上一季度末事件。据报道，6月季度到期包含约93亿美元的比特币期权和16亿美元的以太坊期权。6月的比特币到期涉及约15.35万份合约，而当前Q3定位中Coinbase Markets报告的比特币合约为18.6万份。

9月25日到期前面临重大美国政策事件

在季度期权结算之前，交易者将面临多个可能影响加密资产价格和波动的美国政策事件。参议院已安排于9月15日就《CLARITY法案》进行程序性投票，美联储定于9月16日公布下一次货币政策决定。

Rising Treasury yields and expectations of another Fed rate hike remain part of the macro context for Bitcoin. Spot ETF capital flows, interest rate expectations and government bond yields are the main variables traders pay close attention to ahead of the September Fed meeting.

Other reports pointed out that before the decision was announced, Bitcoin's recent trading range was between US$78,000 and US$82,000, with bond yields and spot demand pulling the market in different directions.

According to Deribit's official contract rules, quarterly Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire at 08:00 UTC on the last Friday in March, June, September and December. As a result, the current third-quarter contract will be settled on September 25.