比特币罕见出现第四次看涨交叉信号，多头动能显著增强

Bitcoin's long-term price structure stabilizes, analysts point to historic bottom signals

Bitcoin's long-term price structure is gradually showing stability. Well-known analyst Willy Woo pointed out that there is a technical pattern that historically coincided with the end of major bear markets. Woo believes that Bitcoin's latest monthly "Fisher Transform" signal marks a new stage of trend reversal, but he also cautioned that the market is not guaranteed to have a perfect bottom and consolidation may still occur.

Core Points

• Historical Crossover: Willy Woo pointed out that Bitcoin generated a monthly bullish crossover signal in August, the fourth such event in Bitcoin history.
• Bear market bottoms correlation: Woo linked past monthly crossings to bear market bottoms and cited late 2022 as an example, when the indicator hit a level of about-3.83.
• Weekly divergence continues: Weekly bullish divergence from the Fisher Transform is forming, echoing the pattern of the last six months of Bitcoin's 2022 bear market.
• Signal reliability: Woo pointed out that since speculative turnover rates are usually lower at the bottom of a bear market than at the bottom of a bull market, the signal tends to be more reliable near the bottom of a bear market.

Why the Fisher transformation is important for timing

Woo 使用了由 Fisher 于2002年开发的一种趋势强度指标——费雪变换，来评估比特币更广泛的轨迹是否发生了转变。费雪变换通过将价格行动平滑处理，使其在趋势条件变化时更易于解读为趋势状态。

该方法应用基于对数的变换，以校正原始价格倾向于停留在极端值附近的方式。在实践中，费雪变换绘制为两条线：费雪线和由其衍生、延迟一个周期的触发线。这两条线围绕中心零线振荡，费雪线与触发线之间的交叉通常被解释为制度变革的信号。

据 Woo 称，当这两条趋势线在月度时间框架上向上交叉时，这一现象反复与熊市底部相吻合——这些事件在历史上往往先于更大的宏观上涨趋势。

8月的月度交叉：“三次完美命中”加上第四次

在 Woo 的分析中，关键的发展在于比特币月度费雪看涨交叉的时间和频率。他指出，急剧向上的反转（即费雪线和触发线相交）在月度图表上与熊市筑底阶段相匹配，而最新的8月交叉似乎延伸了这一记录。

Woo specifically pointed out that the crossover occurred around July, with a value of about-2.26on the Fisher Transform scale. He said that if historical signs follow, this will be the fourth recorded monthly bullish cross. He described the pattern as "three perfect hits with no false breakthroughs" and viewed the latest incident as a potential extension rather than an isolated incident.

Importantly, Woo does not claim that crossings automatically prevent additional fluctuations. He noted that even if indicators turn, prices are likely to consolidate and test lower levels before more resilient macro gains are established. He compared it to other cycles where Fisher showed a bearish cross in a bull market followed by new bullish signals, which meant macro signals could lead a full directional confirmation.

Bear market signals may be "clearer" than bull market signals

Woo's reasons go beyond chart mathematics. He believes that the reliability of the timing of Fisher's transformation reversals depends on market participants. In his view, long-term bull markets usually involve more speculative activity-traders reacting aggressively to short-term fluctuations-creating more turbulent conditions and increasing the probability of "false breakout" signals.

In contrast, at the bottom of the bear market, he said speculative participation dropped significantly. When value investors enter and cause buying pressure to return, price reversals become less noisy, making trend signals like Fisher Crosses easier to interpret.

这种区别是 Woo 构建当前局面的核心：即使指标已经转向，投资者仍应预期底部涉及耗时的稳定过程，而不是立即的直线式复苏。

周线看涨背离重现2022年末的模式

除了月度交叉外，Woo 还强调周线时间框架上正在形成的看涨背离。在这种设置中，费雪继续形成更高的低点，而比特币的价格却创下更低的低点——这是一个经常引用的迹象，表明下行动能正在减弱，尽管市场仍被困在下跌通道中。

Woo 表示，去年12月底，当 BTC/USD 价格在90,000美元附近时，费雪达到约 -2.85 的摆动低点。此后，他报告称，费雪产生了一系列更高的低点，而价格并未跟随。这种背离之所以重要，是因为它表明卖压的恶化可能正在表面之下发生。

关键在于，Woo 将当前的背离结构与比特币2022年熊市期间看到的情况联系起来。他指出，类似的费雪看涨背离出现在前一次熊市进入最后几个月时，随后与最终脱离下跌趋势的过渡相吻合。

尚存的不确定性：7月57,000美元区域及买家行为

尽管技术背景有所改善，但 Woo 和其他链上观察结果仍留有怀疑空间。分析指出，对于7月1日附近57,000美元的近期低点是否真正标志着整个周期的底部，仍存在不确定性。此前报道中引用的链上分析表明，虽然某些指标已产生熊市反转信号，但传统意义上的“买家兴趣”行为可能尚未提供一致的确认。

Woo 此前曾指出在那些低点处存在“缺乏典型买家兴趣”的现象，他认为积累主要由一小部分大额投资者主导，而非广泛的需求。这对交易者如何解读反转很重要：市场可以在有限的买入下反弹，但更持久的周期转变通常需要市场范围内的持续参与。

目前的关键问题是，月度费雪交叉是否会转化为宏观上涨趋势，而不仅仅是暂时的转折。读者应关注费雪是否在更高时间框架上继续得到确认，以及价格行为是否开始与周线图表上的背离信号相一致——特别是如果比特币在任何持续的突破上行之前测试更深的支撑位的话。