Despite the $3000 target price, the risk of an Ethereum correction is still accumulating

Key Points

ETH is testing repeated resistance levels around $1920, which has been strengthened by the downward trend of the 100-day simple moving average (SMA).

The first important correction area is near $1870, where Fibonacci levels and two trend lines converge.

Ali Martinez's MVRV framework points to $2300, followed by a larger $3000 target.

The positive open interest weighted funding rate shows that derivative positions are still biased towards long positions, but this does not determine the next price trend.

As of August 6, at the time of writing this article, the trading price of Ethereum was approximately US$1900, and it once hit around US$1917 in intraday trading.

Resistance levels signal short-term corrections

Horizontal resistance near $1920 has prevented several attempts to rise since mid-July. The downward 100-day simple moving average now strengthens the same area, increasing the risk that ETH retracts first before attempting to continue higher again.

The 200-day simple moving average is still well above this, at around $2070.

ETH continues to form higher lows along the upward structure that began at the end of June. The recovery is still intact, but prices have hit the upper boundary of the current range.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 55.5, slightly above its moving average (approximately 54.8). Momentum remains positive, but a lower high in the RSI suggests that recent gains have not been accompanied by stronger momentum.

If the candle closes down after being blocked again around $1920 today, it will strengthen the reasons for a short-term correction to the $1868 convergence area. A bearish trend will only be confirmed if ETH subsequently breaks below the uptrend line and closes below that support; while a daily close above $1920 weakens the pullback argument.

Why $1870 matters

The first important support level is near $1870, where the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level meets two trend lines.

One is the upper boundary of the smaller descent channel that ETH previously broke through. Returning to that line will test whether previous resistance has turned into support.

The same area also touched the downtrend line of the larger rising channel.

This creates a triple convergence:

0.236 Fibonacci retracement level;

the upper boundary of the descending channel that has been breached; and

the lower support line for the broader upward structure.

Stabilizing in the region will maintain a higher low structure and may create a cleaner foundation for another attempt to go higher.

A decisive break in this area shifts attention to horizontal support around $1840. Below this, the broader $1,790 - 1,800 region combines the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level with the 50-day simple moving average.

Stabilizes around $1870: Upward structure remains intact.

Falling below $1870: Price may move towards $1840.

Falling below US$1840: US$1,790 - 1,800 region became the main downward support.

Martinez's on-chain view points higher

Ali Martinez has a more bullish view over the longer time frame. In an analysis, Martinez believes Ethereum has entered a stronger valuation stage after breaking through the MVRV 0.8 pricing band around $1800. The MVRV framework compares the market value of Ethereum to the average value of the last time its supply moved along the chain.

Martinez identified Ethereum's realized price of approximately US$2300 as the next major reference point. He then emphasized $3000 as a larger goal if the recovery continued.

Callbacks do not necessarily invalidate the prospect. ETH may re-test support, maintain its broader upward structure, and then resume gains.

Martinez also pointed out the MVRV momentum golden cross. He highlighted four previous signals that have since seen gains of about 50% to 166%. With a small sample size, these historical trends should not be regarded as predictions. Liquidity, macro conditions and investor needs vary in different market cycles.

$3000 may also pose resistance

Martinez's data shows that more than 10 million ETH units have changed hands around $3000 before. Some holders who buy near this level may sell when the price returns to its entry point. Therefore, even if Ethereum ultimately reaches its target, the historical holding cluster may slow down.

Funding rates show a bullish bias rather than a directional signal

Ethereum's 8-hour open interest weighted funding rate has mostly remained positive since early July. A positive funding rate means that traders holding long positions in perpetual futures typically pay fees for short positions. Weighting on open interest gives markets with larger leveraged positions greater influence.

Data shows that positions are still biased towards long positions. Recent readings are still below the local peak of about 0.01% set at the end of May, but this comparison alone does not show whether leverage is excessive. Open interest, leverage ratio and clearing concentration are also needed to determine how crowded the trade is.

Therefore, funding rates are most appropriate here as a measure of sentiment. Traders tend to be bullish, but the data cannot show whether ETH will break through resistance immediately or retract to support first.

If the funding rate remains positive and a correction occurs, it may put pressure on leveraged bulls. A successful support retest will realign trader positions with Martinez's broader bullish tone.

Callbacks and bullish targets can be held simultaneously

After Ethereum returns to repeated resistance, the chart currently supports caution. A retreat to nearby convergence areas will test whether the ascending structure still has buyer support.

Martinez's $2300 and $3000 targets fall into the longer time frame, while CoinGlass funding rates suggest derivatives traders are still biased towards bullish outcomes. A successful retest of support levels will connect these two views: short-term weakness may be followed by a continuation of a broader recovery.