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BTC 
ETH Analysts say: Cryptocurrency markets may be underestimating progress on the Clarity Act
Bernstein analysts say cryptocurrency markets may be underestimating progress on the Clarity Act after Republicans made concessions on ethics and banking concerns. The analysis was released ahead of a procedural vote in the Senate tomorrow.
Positive surprises not yet priced
"We believe that any positive surprises are certainly not priced by the market," the team of analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in a report to clients on Monday.
The Clarity Act aims to establish federal regulatory rules for digital assets and clarify the division of responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Promoting the bill through requires Democratic support, and controversy over incentives for officials to hold cryptocurrencies and stablecoins complicates the process.
Republicans propose major changes to win support
Republican sponsors said the latest draft released Sunday includes 126 changes proposed by Democrats, including giving state attorneys general a role in enforcing moral restrictions. President Donald Trump has agreed to these revised restrictions.
Senator Cynthia Loomis, R-Wyoming, chair of the Senate Digital Currency Subcommittee, urged Democrats to support the revised bill and said Republicans have met their demands.
"After a year of intensive bipartisan daily negotiations, this bill is ready," Loomis said in a statement. Democrats got what they wanted; now they need to accept 'yes' as an answer."
Transfer of enforcement powers may mark a critical turning point
Previous versions reserved the Department of Justice the right to enforce ethics clauses mainly against Donald Trump's cryptocurrency business. Bernstein pointed out that, coupled with requirements for asset divestitures or blind trusts, the change could persuade some Democrats to support advancing legislation.
However, some analysts remain skeptical.
TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg wrote on Monday: "This is not a negotiated agreement. Democrats are dealing with the final product." He maintained his assessment of the probability of the bill passing this year at 25%. Beacon Policy Advisors increased its estimated probability from less than 10% to 30%-40%.
The game between stablecoin rewards and community banks
The latest proposal also stipulates that if stablecoin rewards cause large-scale capital outflows from community banks, the Ministry of Finance has the right to restrict it. Banking groups believe such payments could draw away deposits used for lending, and cryptocurrency advocates want to retain these rewards. Both sides have lobbied senators in their respective states.
This amendment is a further adjustment based on the September 10 draft, which basically did not change the ethics provisions, but added registration requirements for cryptocurrency trading agreements controlled by individuals or groups.
If legislation fails, regulators will adopt alternative measures
If Congress fails to pass the Clarity Act, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) plans to use its existing powers to advance cryptocurrency regulatory rules. CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig has instructed staff to explore the rules, but said the protections provided by the legislation will make it more difficult for future governments to overturn the rules.
