KuCoin Ventures 周报：通胀、油价与加密货币 ETF 趋势

KuCoin Ventures 'latest weekly report: Crypto market is playing between inflationary pressure and capital diversion

KuCoin Ventures' latest weekly report depicts the complex pattern of the current cryptocurrency market: on the one hand, rising inflation and oil prices have pushed up expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates; on the other hand, the spot cryptocurrency ETF market is still full of variables. Although Bitcoin's capital inflows have stalled or even shrunk, Ethereum-related products have attracted new capital injections.

The bearish view believes that institutional demand for Ethereum (ETH) exposure remains strong; while the bearish view points out that the macro environment of "high interest rates will last longer" has led to the loss of liquidity in the largest cryptocurrency ETF products.

Macroeconomic pressures: Inflation and oil prices push up interest rate hikes expectations

The core macro thread of this report is supply-driven inflation shocks. According to KuCoin Ventures, in late July 2026, due to the dual impact of shipping interruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, Brent crude oil prices briefly exceeded the US$100 per barrel mark. This surge in oil prices has directly affected market expectations for the Fed's policies. CME FedWatch data showed that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the FOMC meeting on July 29 rose sharply to 36.3%, from 14.4% a week ago, reflecting the market's growing concerns about oil-driven inflation.

Chart data:

• CME FedWatch probability of raising interest rates on July 29:36.3%(14.4% the previous week)
• Background: Affected by the interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, Brent crude oil briefly exceeded US$100/barrel.

Under the leadership of Chairman Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range for five consecutive times, but the hawkish tendencies are strengthening. At the July meeting, three of the twelve FOMC members voted for an immediate rate hike. According to a follow-up report by KuCoin Ventures, as of August 3, CME FedWatch showed that the probability of a rate hike in September is close to 64.5%.

Entering mid-September, the pressure has not eased. CoinDesk reported that Brent crude hit as high as $109 per barrel, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was around 4.94%, and Bitcoin trading prices hovered near its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA). As the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) are about to announce interest rate decisions, the movements of these central banks will continue to shape the trend of the crypto market this week.

Cryptocurrency ETF dynamics: Bitcoin's cold and Ethereum's resilience coexist

报告中最为显著的分歧体现在两大旗舰 ETF 类别上。7 月 28 日当周，现货比特币 ETF 的周交易量降至约 80.5 亿美元，创下自 2024 年 10 月以来的最低全周交易量记录，净流入仅为 3379 万美元。与此同时，周四和周五分别出现了约 2.25 亿美元和 2.4 亿美元的 BTC ETF 净流出，其中贝莱德（BlackRock）的 IBIT 产品在周五单日就撤出了约 9550 万美元，反映出机构在加息预期升温下的谨慎态度。

相比之下，以太坊讲述了截然不同的故事。同期，现货 ETH ETF 录得约 1.03 亿美元的净流入，其中贝莱德的 ETHA 贡献了 9630 万美元，推动 ETH ETF 总净资产达到 101.7 亿美元。这种韧性成为对抗比特币流动性冻结的最有力反驳。

关键解读：

• 看空视角：低位的 BTC ETF 交易量表明，随着利率风险重估，机构投资者正在退缩。
• 看多视角：集中的 ETH 流入显示，机构的选择性 appetite（食欲/需求）并未消失。
• 集中度风险：贝莱德在两类产品中的主导地位凸显出当前资金流向高度集中于单一发行商的现象。

关键要点与本周关注焦点

Market signals show contradictory characteristics. The total market value is approximately US$2.638 trillion, down about 3% during the day, and Bitcoin dominance (market share) is 58.33%, but retail sentiment remains optimistic. Bitcoin prices fell slightly by 1.18% in 24 hours to around $76,827, while the Fear and Greed Index read 69 (in the "greedy" range), suggesting that market sentiment has not yet fully priced macro interest rate hikes.

There are three key points worthy of attention in the short term:

1. U.S. inflation data: As a binary catalyst that affects the Fed's policy expectations, the upcoming inflation print is crucial.
2. Persistence of ETH ETF inflows: If oil prices and yields continue to rise, can net inflows of Ethereum ETF be maintained?
3. Technical Support: Bitcoin's 50-week EMA was reported marked as a potential risk point.

In addition, the high-cost capital environment is reshaping the project's operating model, suggesting that cryptocurrency companies are gradually moving away from the hype cycle and moving towards more disciplined earnings performance. Market dynamics can change quickly, with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller having said he would support keeping interest rates unchanged in September if inflation improves in August, a dovish stance that briefly brought the probability of a rate hike back to around 50%.

Disclaimer : This article is for reference only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. There are significant risks in the cryptocurrency and digital asset markets. Be sure to conduct independent research before making any decisions.