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BTC Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen admitted prediction error and reassessed market outlook.
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen publicly admitted that his previous forecast for Bitcoin failed to materialize and announced that he would reassess the market outlook. He said that he originally thought Bitcoin would not be able to break through its May high, but the actual trend of BTC did exceed that level, reaching a high of about $86,000. Cowan added that the current market's structural signals have changed significantly compared to previous cycles.
Core misjudgment: Short-term impact of high interest rates on Bitcoin
Cowan pointed out that the main mistake is to assume that the Fed's interest rate hike will have a direct negative impact on Bitcoin in the short term. He explained that the previous logic was that higher energy prices would push up bond yields, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which in turn would lead to a stronger dollar and a weaker Bitcoin. However, Cowan said that although his expectations for energy prices, bond yields, interest rates and the U.S. dollar have largely been fulfilled, Bitcoin has risen with the U.S. dollar rather than fallen.
Cowan commented: "The problem is that I assume that raising interest rates will immediately lower the price of Bitcoin, but the data does not support this view."
Historical data suggests that reactions are not always immediate
该分析师表示，在回顾过去的加息周期时，他发现比特币在美联储首次加息后并不总是立即下跌。考恩以2015年12月和2022年3月开始的上调利率周期为例，指出在某些时期，比特币在加息后继续上涨，而疲软迹象出现在随后的几个月。同样，考恩注意到比特币在2018年9月和2022年9月的加息后也未出现 immediate 的剧烈抛售，他认为2026年9月的价格走势与此方面的历史先例并不完全矛盾。
中期选举周期表现强劲，市场结构发生转变
考恩强调的另一个重要点是，在当前的中期选举周期中，比特币的表现优于以往时期。据分析师称，比特币从夏季低点反弹了约50%。而在2018年和2022年的类似复苏中，涨幅仅为40%左右，且比特币达到的峰值较低。此次比特币创下更高的峰值，根据考恩的观点，这标志着市场结构的重大转变。
考恩认为，现货比特币ETF可能也加强了比特币与传统金融市场之间的联系。因此，他指出，现在应更加谨慎地假设过去的比特币周期会简单重演。
未来展望：多头责任转移与潜在回调风险
该分析师避免对比特币短期内能涨多高做出明确预测。考恩表示，应更重视那些准确预测此次上涨的分析师的意见，同时他自己的方法也将更多地考虑市场结构因素。
不过，考恩并未完全排除今年晚些时候比特币出现回调的可能性。但他强调，这种回落不一定需要创出新低，正如他过去所设想的那样。根据考恩的说法，既然比特币已经形成了更高的峰值，下一次潜在的回调也可能在宏观层面上形成“更高的低点”。
考恩还表示，股票市场如果出现大幅修正，可能是比特币严重下跌的必要条件。他认为，标普500指数仅回调约10%可能不足以推动比特币创新低，可能需要更大规模的避险行为。
考恩在评估当前局势时表示：“举证责任现已从多头转向空头。多头已经确立了更高的峰值。如果第四季度出现显著疲软，现在需要由空头来证明这一点。”
