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山寨币涨势持续：CryptoQuant发出警告！

2026-09-29 21:13:28

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The altcoin market has rebounded significantly recently, and on-chain data reveals potential risk signals.

The altcoin market has shown obvious signs of recovery recently, but on-chain data shows that despite the strong upward momentum, some risk signals have quietly emerged. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that 87% of Binance-listed altcoins have entered an upward trend, but he also stressed that current market momentum must be closely monitored.

The centralized allocation of funds to the altcoin field not only pushed prices upward, but also triggered significant changes in long-term technical indicators. However, the increase in the volume of transfers within the exchange and the weakening of momentum indicators have sent a signal that the market needs to be vigilant in subsequent trends.

What does the 45% increase in the market value of altcoins mean?

According to CryptoQuant, the Total2 indicator, including Ethereum, has recorded more than US$371 billion in capital inflows since June 2026. The influx of money sent the Total2 index up by about 45%.

Changes in capital flows have significantly improved the long-term trend prospects of altcoins. In August, about 80% of Binance's listed altcoins traded below the 200-day moving average. With recent gains, this proportion has plunged to 13%. In other words, about 87% of the altcoin prices on Binance are currently above the 200-day moving average.

Darkfost said this broad market shift suggests high market sentiment. But he also pointed out that historical experience shows that such a large-scale upward trend is often unsustainable.

Why pay attention to the amount of altcoins transferred to exchanges?

除了价格上涨外，转入中心化加密货币交易所的山寨币数量也出现了显著增长。周均数据显示，转入Binance的山寨币数量已超过22,700枚，而Coinbase方面则超过8,300枚。在其他交易所，周均转账量约为32,000枚。据CryptoQuant分析师称，这些数值处于2025年10月此前市场高点以来的最高水平区间。

虽然转入交易所并不直接等同于抛售行为，但投资者将资产转移至中心化平台通常被视为潜在卖压增加的信号，因此是市场分析中备受关注的核心指标之一。

为何需重点关注Total2的RSI信号？

CryptoQuant还指出了另一个关键指标：Total2相对强弱指数（RSI）出现的看跌背离现象。这种技术形态通常出现在价格上升但动量指标未能同步增强之时。

在当前格局下，尽管山寨币价格持续走高，但RSI显示的动量正在减弱，这构成了行情可能减速的早期预警信号。与此同时，转入交易所的资产量增加，进一步要求市场参与者对该技术形态保持高度关注。

因此，在当前加密投资环境中，仅关注价格上涨已不足以全面把握市场动态。综合评估Total2、RSI及交易所转账数据，才能更准确地追踪山寨币行情的广度与强度。

山寨币反弹行情能否持续？

CryptoQuant的数据表明，当前的上涨行情仍具有广泛的参与度。Binance上市山寨币中87%的价格突破200日均线，反映出积极的市场情绪已扩散至众多数字资产。

然而，转入交易所的资产量自2025年10月以来维持在高位，加之Total2 RSI呈现负背离，这些都暗示上涨动能未来可能减弱。目前的盘面既反映了强劲的资金流入，也包含了潜在的动量流失风险。

在评估山寨币市场动向时，结合价格走势、链上转账数据及技术指标进行综合分析，将提供更全面的视角。

本内容不构成任何投资建议。市场存在高风险，投资者在做出决策前应进行独立研究。

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