柴犬币价格预测：24小时内5000亿枚SHIB流入交易所，下一目标为0.0000062美元

500.12 billion SHIBs were transferred to exchanges in 24 hours: Signal of net outflow

500.12 billion Shiba Inu (SHIBs) were transferred to trading venues in 24 hours. This number may seem to indicate a sell-off, but it does not: withdrawals increased more than deposits during the same period, so overall, more SHIBs left the exchange than entered. Anyone building a forecast based on this must consider both inflow and outflow data, not just the huge total.

On Tuesday night, SHIB was traded at US$0.0000576 on the Kraken Exchange, up about 1.3% from the previous day. Equivalent to euros is 0.0000509 euros. The price range for the day was US$0.0000550 to US$0.0000591, and the volume-weighted average price was US$0.0000569. This article will put these capital inflows in a broader context, recalculate the destruction data, and point out the key prices that determine the next move.

500.12 billion SHIBs in 24 hours: Inflows and reverse operations

This data comes from CryptoQuant's exchange traffic data, analyzed by Coin Edition on September 29. The top ten largest deposits totaled 13.91 billion SHIBs. Average deposits increased by 1.92%, and total deposits increased by 2.58%.

In on-chain terminology,"exchange inflow" refers to the process of transferring tokens from private addresses to addresses attributed to the trading platform. This is a prerequisite for a sale, but it is not the same as a sale. Holders can also deposit tokens for redemption, use pledge services, or as collateral for positions.

与存款相对的是提现。在同一时期，提现量上升了2.22%，其中前十笔最大提现量上升了2.58%。结果是净流量为负，意味着资金正从交易所撤离。这正是大多数报道所忽略的关键点，因为单一的大数字比差额更具冲击力。

为何差额比总流入量更重要

总流入量会随着大额持仓的移动而剧烈波动。如果5000亿枚SHIB从一个交易所转移到另一个交易所，它们会同时显示为流入和流出，但没有一枚代币被实际卖出。净流量过滤掉了这种重复计算。如果净流量连续几天保持为负，意味着平台可随时出售的供应减少，这在需求不变的情况下是利好因素。

净SHIB离开交易所：CryptoQuant如何统计流入和流出

CryptoQuant按交易场所维护地址列表，并将每笔转入记录为流入，每笔转出记录为流出。该方法有两个已知的弱点。首先，地址列表并不完整；新的托管地址出现会有延迟。其次，交易所内部热钱包和冷钱包之间的转移有时无法与真实的用户资金移动区分开来。

对于个人阅读而言，由此得出一个简单的规则：单日的数值意义有限，一周内的方向性趋势更具参考价值。9月29日显示出创纪录的总流入量，但总体结果仍是净流出。这是一个中性偏利好的画面，而非警告信号。

资金流入交易所并不自动意味着抛压：关键在于同时有多少资金流出。

销毁率下降91.31%，降至338,050枚SHIB

当天的第二个数据来自销毁计数器。根据Shibburn的数据，9月28日的销毁率在24小时内从3,887,908枚下降91.31%至338,050枚SHIB。过去30天内，该比率下降了超过36%。

“销毁”指的是将代币发送到没有已知私钥的地址。这些代币在链上仍然可见，但无法再被移动，因此实际上不再计入流通量。在Shibarium（该项目的双层网络）上，70%的交易手续费被兑换成SHIB并发送至此类地址。

百分比的跳跃看起来惊人，但绝对数量却微不足道。以周二晚间的价格计算，338,050枚SHIB的价值约为1.95美元。前一天这一价值约为22美元。在数千万亿枚的流通量面前，这种数量级的每日变化几乎毫无影响。

41.08%的供应量已被销毁，价格维持在0.00000576美元

Shibburn数据显示，总销毁量约为410.8万亿枚代币，占原始供应量一千万亿枚SHIB的41.08%。剩余约589万亿枚代币在流通中。以周二晚间价格计算，销毁部分的对应价值约为24亿美元。这个计算是基于当日价格的换算，而非项目方提供的官方数据。

Comparing the daily destruction volume with the circulation volume, the result is 0.00000057%. This is why destruction rates have not been a price driver for years: the vast majority of that 41% comes from one-time operations in 2021, rather than day-to-day operations. Anyone using destruction data as an argument for price targets should cite current operating rates rather than totals.

Reverse deduction is still meaningful. If Shibarium can permanently generate enough costs to cause one-tenth of one-tenth of its circulation to disappear every day, the effect will be measurable. But the current network is far from reaching this level. Developers reported on September 19 that a reorganization issue on Shibarium had been fixed and nodes and RPC addresses were rotated in September. This is maintenance work and does not incur additional costs.

Resistance is between US$0.000060 and US$0.0000062, with the 200-day moving average below

Coin Edition points out that the next resistance range is US$0.000060 and US$0.0000062. The intraday high on September 29 was $0.0000591, so prices are already close to the area but not touched. If the daily line closes above this range, it will be the first technical argument for the bulls in several weeks.

Below is the 200-day moving average, which is between US$0.000053 and US$0.000058, depending on the calculation method. Therefore, the current price is in the upper half of the range. Coin Edition sees the next significant support at $0.000051 to $0.000052. The intraday low of $0.0000550 suggests that the distance could shrink quickly.

看多观点如下：净SHIB正在离开交易所，价格保持在200日均线上方，且突破0.0000062美元将为上行打开空间。看空观点如下：总流入量保持高位，持续的销毁无效，且跌破0.0000053美元将滑向0.0000051美元附近的区域。这两种解读都基于相同的数字。

德国所得税法第23条下的持有期：一年之差，税务有别

对于德国投资者而言，除了价格之外，重新分配持仓还涉及更多税务考量。根据德国所得税法第23条，加密货币被视为其他经济资产。如果在购买后一年内出售，收益视为私人处置，需按个人所得税率纳税。如果购买和出售之间间隔超过十二个月，则收益免税。

这里有两个常被混淆的点。每年1000欧元的限制是一个豁免门槛，而非津贴：如果所有私人处置收益总和达到或超过1000欧元，全额均需纳税，而不仅仅是超额部分。此外，期限是按每笔收购计算的，而非按钱包计算。如果分多次买入SHIB，则有多段期限并行计算。

在归属认定上，税务机关接受先进先出法（FIFO），即假设最古老的代币最先被卖出。对于以许多小额批次购买的代币，完整的记录是证明期限的唯一方法。税务工具或投资组合跟踪器可以接管这种记账工作，并以税务局接受的格式导出。

Removing SHIB from the exchange means you take responsibility for the key.

Exchanges and Self-Custody: What You Can Do Now

Inflow data describes a decision being made by thousands of holders: whether to keep positions on exchanges or withdraw them. Both routes have costs. On an exchange, you can trade in seconds, but you have to bear the platform's counterparty risk. In self-hosting, you bear the risk and there is no remedy for losing the recovery phrase.

In practice, the holding period determines. For positions that are intended to move in the next few days, moving them to hardware wallets is an unnecessary effort plus two network fees. Self-custody is obviously wise for positions that aim to achieve a one-year holding period, because the period does not depend on where the token is placed, and platform risks do exist within twelve months.

One note about chains: SHIB is the ERC-20 token on Ethereum and is also present in Shibarium and other network variants. Withdrawing money into the wrong chain can result in loss of position. Before withdrawing money, please carefully check whether the network choices in the withdrawal form are consistent with the chain expected in your wallet.

Price difference and order size at 0.0000509 euros

At a price of 0.0000509 euros, the smallest representative price step is approximately one percent of this value. This may sound trivial, but for SHIB, it is the most important cost block after transaction fees. The spread of 0.0000001 euros per token accounts for approximately 2% of the position at a price of 0.0000509 euros.

由此得出的针对该代币的简单交易规则是：小额资金仅使用市价单，否则使用限价单。周二Kraken上的买单和卖单靠得非常近，但这对于该代币的欧元交易并非理所当然。不同平台之间的订单簿深度差异显著，与该代币相关的交易场所比较比比特币更为重要。

SHIB在过去30天内上涨11.13%，交易量升至8670万美元

月度数据因来源而异。Shibburn和KuCoin报告截至9月28日的30天涨幅为11.13%，而Coin Edition在其观察窗口内报告的涨幅为12%。范围如所示，因为截止日期不同，平滑处理只会伪造精确度。

在交易量方面，24小时内的数字介于8670万美元至9814万美元之间。市值约为34.6亿美元。对于该规模的代币来说，这是薄弱的换手率，这也解释了为何像5001.2亿这样的单次大规模移动会受到如此多的关注。

Dogecoin价格为9.4美分，SHIB为0.00000576美元

观察更大的模因代币有助于分类。

周二晚间，Dogecoin在Kraken交易所交易价格为9.36美分，较前一日下跌0.3%。同期SHIB上涨。单日来看这只是噪音；但在几周的时间跨度内，SHIB的表现强于两者之一。

Structural differences still exist: Dogecoin has a fixed annual circulation and no destruction mechanism, and SHIB has no mining and a destruction mechanism, but its effectiveness depends on the use of Shibarium. It will be announced in 2026 and 2027 that the game Shiba Eternity will be restarted on Shibarium. Whether this will incur any relevant amount of costs is unclear and there is currently no data to support it.

SHIB Exchange Inflows: Summary of Highlights

Read net traffic rather than headline numbers.

500.12 billion SHIBs is a total inflow figure. The key lies in the difference with the withdrawal amount, and the difference on September 29 was negative. Focus on the direction for the week, not the daily numbers. Position positions also depend on the trading venue, and the depth of the order book varies widely: the trading venue overview shows these differences.

Record the holding period of each batch.

The one-year holding period determines the tax status of SHIB, and the period is calculated on a per acquisition basis. People who make small purchases multiple times need a record that can prove the period. Trackers with tax export function can process attribution based on the first-in, first-out method.

Match chain before withdrawal.

SHIB exists on Ethereum as an ERC-20 token, in addition to Shibarium. Withdrawing money to the wrong network is irreversible. For positions designed to reach a one-year holding period, self-custody is the obvious destination: The hardware wallet overview lists differences in processing and backup.

此外，加上可以从其中读取方向的价位：向上为0.0000060至0.0000062美元，向下为0.0000053至0.0000058的200日均线以及0.0000051至0.0000052美元的区域。超出这些边缘的日线收盘是信号；范围内的日线波动则不是。

（截至2026年9月29日。本文不构成投资建议。价格和费用结构会发生变化；购买前请与提供商核实条款。）