比特币因美债收益率飙升而回调，加密ETF吸引23.9亿美元资金流入

加密ETF吸引23.9亿美元周净流入，推动2026年净流量重回正值

尽管比特币下跌4.3%，且美国十年期国债收益率攀升至5.20%，但加密ETF仍吸引了23.9亿美元的周净流入，使2026年的净流量重新回到正值区间。Hilbert Group发布了这一市场动态。

ETF资金流入扭转年初亏损

Hilbert Group（一家在纳斯达克First North上市的数字资产投资公司）于9月28日发布了其每周市场更新报告。该公司高级投资组合经理Jesse Marre在接受采访时指出，在美国政府债券收益率上升对比特币和美国股市构成压力的背景下，持续的ETF买入行为尤为突出。

Marre表示，尽管比特币在近期反弹后有所回撤，但基金的资金流入仍在继续，重现了上周的模式：负面消息未能导致需求出现持久性回落。这23.9亿美元的摄入量是本周最强的数据，因为它将年度ETF流量从7月最糟糕时的58亿美元赤字拉回了正值区间。

“在收益率突破高点的情况下，比特币抛售了4.3%，但资金依然涌入，这与上周看到的‘坏消息无法持续’的模式相同。”Marre说道。

据这位投资组合经理称，截至约1080亿美元的总ETF净资产价值仍低于此前1520亿美元的高峰。他注意到，当基金资产达到该历史高点时，比特币的交易价格为12.5万美元。

Analysis of the flow of funds in major ETFs

According to reports citing data from Farside Investors, BlackRock's IBIT attracted approximately $1.16 billion in inflows, followed by Fidelity's FBTC ($701.6 million) and ARK21 Shares 'ARKB ($294.7 million). In addition, Morgan Stanley's MSBT attracted $203.3 million in funding, the largest weekly inflow since its launch in April this year. During the five trading days from September 21 to 25, daily inflows fell to $134.5 million on Friday from approximately $999 million on Monday, but remained positive every day.

Market volatility after bond yields remain high

Marrre pointed out that the market was relatively calm until Wednesday, when the ten-year bond yield exceeded its previous high, rising from about 4.95% to 5.20%. He attributed the trend to existing upward trends, inflation concerns and doubts about the government's fiscal sustainability rather than a single release of economic data.

"In the absence of a catalyst and no correction, yields broke above 25 basis points, a signal different from data-based repricing. This suggests that trends and fiscal concerns are themselves enough to have an impact."

During the sell-off period, the S & P 500 fell 1.2%, the Nasdaq fell 1.4%, and Bitcoin fell to $83,500. By the time Marre commented, volatility had eased and the S & P 500 had rebounded to around 7,750, but Treasury yields were still near high. Marre warned that calm trading should not be seen as evidence of the end of the stress because "yields remain high while volatility is suppressed does not mean that the stress has been resolved."

Bitcoin needs to break through US$89,000 to open a path to US$95,000

Beyond the shorter daily trading range, Marre believes Bitcoin's weekly consolidation between US$82,400 and US$87,500 is consistent with a suspended state after a strong rebound. Without a new catalyst, he expects trading to continue in that range. Above, he sees about $89,000 as a key resistance level that, once breached, could start a rise towards $95,000.

On the downside, he set support at $80,000, followed by $77,000. He believes a break below $77,000 will bring new selling pressure and undermine the bullish structure, while the current trend remains upward.

In the options market, Marre sets the implied volatility (DVol) at around 35 and says the pricing of call and put options is relatively symmetrical. He pointed out that the implied volatility of the five-Delta call option is close to 39%. Although the slowdown in real price volatility narrowed the gap between implied and realized volatility from 7 percentage points to 1-1.5 percentage points, he said that at current prices, the gains for options sellers were still limited.

SEC指导推进加密货币规则，无需国会立法

在市场波动之外，Marre还指出了SEC关于证券法适用于加密货币代币的最新指导方针。在他看来，这些指导方针为通过质押和回购向持有者合法分配收入开辟了道路。在《CLARITY法案》未能通过后，SEC和CFTC正迅速利用现有权力建立部分监管框架。

Marre欢迎各机构的这种做法，但也警告说，绕过国会制定的措施可能会被未来支持度较低的SEC改写的行政部门所改变。他将这一政治风险置于两年多以后，并表示这些变化的持久性取决于它们在那之前扎根的深度。

“每这样制定一条规则，都是未来行政部门可以重写的一条规则，这使得接下来的两年不仅仅关乎什么会被发布，更关乎它在窗口关闭前嵌入得有多深。”

upcoming economic data

在9月28日的更新日历中，Marre列出了周三的PCE、核心PCE、GDP和芝加哥PMI数据，周四的ISM制造业数据，以及周五的非农就业数据。他表示，这些数据将有助于确定美国国债收益率的方向，并为美联储的下一步行动提供进一步洞察。