Bitcoin ETF opens October with net inflow of US$103 million

Analysis of the Fund Flow and Market Dynamics of the US Spot Bitcoin ETF

On October 1, the first trading day of this month, the net inflow of the US Spot Bitcoin ETF was US$102.7 million, reversing the previous day. The outflow of US$148.7 million. According to data, the net assets of the relevant funds have climbed to US$109.3 billion, and the cumulative net inflow has reached US$57.6 billion. This inflow trend follows the strongest quarter for these funds in 2026. Total net deposits in the third quarter were US$6.34 billion, of which US$2.65 billion was contributed in September. Bitcoin prices have risen 42.71% over the same period, and traders are closely watching whether the market continues to remain strong, as indicated by its reputation as "Uptober"(October bullish).

Current market conditions

The trading trend on Friday showed a divided pattern. The September employment report showed that only 29,000 new jobs were created, far below the expected forecast. Bitcoin prices hit US$87,085 at one point, and then fell back to approximately US$84,500 as approximately US$433 million in leveraged positions were liquidated. As of Friday morning, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs were approximately US$32 million, mainly provided by Fidelity, a significant slowdown from Thursday's data. The current fear and greed index is 72, still in the "greed" range.

Other crypto asset ETFs performed relatively weakly. The Ethereum Fund posted a net outflow of $55.4 million on Thursday, the third consecutive day of outflows totaling approximately $118 million; the Solana Fund lost $6 million, while the XRP Fund received a net inflow of $4 million.

Review of Market Evolution

ETF的故事始于2025年10月。当时随着比特币价格接近12.6万美元的历史新高，当月资金吸引了34.2亿美元。随后价格下跌，2026年大部分时间资金流向变得参差不齐。3月份曾出现过短暂复苏，资金连续七天净流入，累计增加约12亿美元，当时ETF总资产管理规模达到967亿美元。这是自2025年10月以来持续时间最长的一次资金流入周期，但规模远小于此前那次长达数十天的流入所吸纳的约60亿美元。

需求在8月份回归。比特币在一周内从约6.3万美元飙升至7.8万美元以上，ETF吸引资金19.2亿美元，创下自2025年10月以来的最佳单周表现。8月以35.2亿美元的净流入收官，创下2026年的月度高点。即便如此，年度累计资金仍为负29.1亿美元。9月3日，资金流入7.309亿美元，为当年2月以来的最大单日流入。次日强劲的8月就业报告缓解了加息担忧，导致比特币跌破8万美元关口，但该月整体仍录得26.5亿美元的净流入。

为何价格走势滞后于资金流入

尽管资金持续流入，比特币价格并未大幅上涨。自9月21日以来，价格一直在83,500美元至86,600美元之间波动。87,000美元附近的阻力位在过去一年中多次压制比特币价格，并在周五再次发挥作用。

Federal Reserve policy is the main reason for this phenomenon. Markets have been pricing potential interest rate hikes for weeks, sending bond yields to 24-year highs. Higher yields reduce the attractiveness of holding Bitcoin. However, Friday's weak jobs data changed that expectation. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a rate hike in October plunged to 14% from 70% at the beginning of the week. The forecast market currently believes that the probability of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged on October 28 is about 80%.

Support and risk factors

Bullish factors: The logic is clear. ETF assets have reached US$109.3 billion, the probability of raising interest rates has dropped, and buyers have re-entered the market after Wednesday's outflow of funds. Over the past four months, these funds have accumulated more than US$11 billion.

Risk factors: are also real. Weak hiring data may mean a cooling economy, and revisions to previous data have wiped out 60,000 jobs. Bitcoin is still about one-third below its all-time high in October 2025, and Friday's gains disappeared within hours. In addition, compared with the previous peak, the current capital flow appears weak. The October 2025 market absorbed about $6 billion in a few weeks, and this round of recovery is smoother and smaller. Outflows from Ethereum and Solana funds also indicate that market enthusiasm for cryptocurrency ETFs has not spread widely.

Follow-up Focus

The next key test point was the $87,400 level, a ceiling that failed to break on Friday. If the daily net ETF inflow remains above US$100 million, the possibility of a breakthrough will increase; if there is a continuous outflow, it may point to another round of stagnation. Two dates are particularly critical: U.S. inflation data will be released on October 14, and the Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for October 28. Moderate inflation data and interest rates unchanged will further support price increases; conversely, hotter's data will reignite interest rate hikes and test the ETF demand that has built up throughout the summer.