Allora unlocked on November 11: How to verify the 160 million ALLOs that actually entered the market

Disclaimer: Content does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risks—please invest with caution!

11月11日Allora解锁：1.6亿枚ALLO的构成解析

Allora是一个去中心化人工智能网络。在该网络中，“推理（Inference）”指模型提供的单个预测结果，而这一过程需使用ALLO代币进行支付。因此，该代币既作为预测支付的媒介，也用于质押（Staking），并作为运行模型或评估模型质量者的奖励。

ALLO的供应上限为10亿枚。对于11月11日的解锁而言，初始分配中的两项内容至关重要：占17.50%的“核心贡献者（Core Contributors）”，即核心协议的开发者；以及占31.05%的“早期支持者（Early Backers）”，即早期的资金提供方。根据基金会公布的信息，这两类分配均遵循相同的三年归属计划：前12个月完全锁定，随后一次性释放33%，剩余部分在接下来的24个月内线性释放。

这种模式有一个专门的名称：“悬崖式解锁（Cliff Unlock）”。它指的是在锁定期结束时，一大块代币突然变得可交易，而不是分几个月逐步释放。读者若想了解通用的机制细节，可参考关于计算代币解锁的相关指南。

代币经济学算术：17.50%加上31.05%等于4.855亿枚

本案例的特殊之处在于，释放量无需估算。两个百分比均出现在已发布的代币经济学文档中，且最大供应量是固定的。计算过程分为三步：

17.50% plus 31.05% yields 48.55% of the maximum supply.
48.55% of 1 billion ALLOs equals 485.5 million locked coins.
Among them, 33% is 160,215 million ALLOs, which are specifically allocated to 57.75 million core contributors and 102,465 million early supporters.

Only a calculator and the Allora Foundation's official token economics document are needed to verify these data. This is what distinguishes this date from many other unlock reports that rely on data provider calendar entries without substantial basis. The release amount can be established based on just two percentages in official token economics without consulting any trackers.

Cliff unlocking versus circulating supply: Depending on the source of the data, the ratio ranges from 63% to 80%

The individual release has limited significance and only becomes apparent when it is relative to the "Circulating Supply"-the number of tokens that are already freely tradable. Here, the differences among data providers are obvious, and honest analysis must point this out.

CoinGecko将10月初ALLO的流通供应量定为约2.55亿枚。基于此，1.602亿枚约占近63%。其他提供商，包括DropsTab和CoinMarketCap，则采用约2.005亿枚的流通供应量；在此基数下，同一批代币占比约为80%。这两个数字都在使用中，且都没有明显错误。因此，增加量处于当前可交易供应量的60%多一点到约80%的范围内。如果只引用其中一个而不提另一个，会缩小视野，导致片面理解。

此外，不同平台报告的释放量也有所不同。代币经济学算术得出的数值为1.602亿枚ALLO。归属追踪器因包含同期其他较小的释放批次，对同一天的报价分别为1.639亿枚和1.654亿枚。因此，1.6亿至1.65亿枚的范围是可以解释的，而非来源间的矛盾。

4100万美元面临400万美元的日交易量

市场影响既不取决于代币数量，也不取决于其占流通供应量的比例，而是取决于其与交易量的比率。按0.2589美元的价格计算，1.602亿枚ALLO约合4150万美元。而在10月初，所有交易所合并计算的单日交易量仅为410多万美元。

Therefore, the released volume is about ten times the trading volume on the average trading day. In order to intuitively feel its scale: ALLO's total market value is approximately US$66 million, ranking 393rd in the ranking of cryptocurrency asset market value. In such a deep market, without a price response, it will be difficult to absorb selling pressure equivalent to days of trading volume. Whether such selling pressure will actually occur is another question.

No specific calendar date in the original source: Where did November 11th come from?

Here, accuracy is more important than cleanliness. The Allora Foundation's token economics describes the lock-in structure: 33% is released after 12 months of lock-in. However, the document did not mention specific calendar dates.

November 11 is the date derived from the start of trading. ALLO began trading simultaneously on multiple exchanges on November 11, 2025, and CoinGecko also attributed a record high of $1.60 to the same day. Therefore, after twelve months, the lock-up period ends on November 11, 2026. Independent affiliation trackers, such as DropsTab's affiliation overview, also list exactly the same dates.

Therefore, a strict statement should be: a twelve-month node marked by the tracker as November 11. It does not have a fixed official deadline with a specific moment of time. Anyone marking this date in the calendar would also be better off paying attention to the dynamics of the days before and after, as release times may also deviate for technical reasons.

After cliff unlocking, linear release pushed in approximately 13.5 million ALLOs per month through the same bottleneck.

Behind the cliff: 325 million ALLOs in 24 months, approximately 13.5 million per month.

November 11 brings the largest release, not the last. After the cliff unlock, approximately 325.3 million of the remaining 485.5 million locked coins will be distributed linearly over a 24-month period. On average, there are approximately 13.55 million ALLOs per month.

Based on the current supply in circulation, this means that supply will increase steadily by about 5% every month until November 2028. Reports often ignore this continued pressure, although within two years, the total amount of these tokens that continued to flow into the market even exceeded the amount released in a single time. For background reference: Only 25.5% of the maximum supply is currently in circulation.

Unlocking does not equal sale: Pledge clause in Allora token economics

Unlocking is the movement of a token from the vesting contract into a freely usable wallet. No sale occurred at this time. How big the gap between the two depends on how the recipient uses the tokens, and the protocol itself also plays a role in it.

The Allora Foundation named two major guidelines for issuance in its token economics. The second point states that during the large-scale release period, the income of each pledged token should remain relatively stable, with the clear purpose of keeping these tokens out of the market. As a result, the network is trying to keep the appeal of pledges at critical moments when the maximum number of tokens can flow freely. Whether this strategy worked can only be measured after the fact.

第二种机制与之并行：推理费用先支付给贡献者，然后才创造新代币。随着网络使用量的增加，新发行代币在奖励中的份额下降。这与11月11日的悬崖式解锁无关，但与随后几个月的供应发展密切相关。

流通供应量、交易所流入量和质押：11月11日后的四个关键指标

有四个观察维度可以将“释放”与“出售”区分开来，且所有这四个数据都是公开可用的：

流通供应量：在11月11日之后的几天里，数据提供商显示的流通供应量是否确实按预期幅度上升？如果它基本保持不变，说明释放要么被推迟，要么代币未进入流通。
交易所流入量：旨在出售的代币必须先到达交易场所。日期 shortly 后交易所余额显著上升是公众可见的最早信号。
质押比例：如果释放的代币进入网络质押，它们在一段时间内仍将远离市场。
日交易量：在持续低成交量下的价格下跌，与在高成交量下的价格下跌含义截然不同。只有在第二种情况下，才意味着发生了实质规模的抛售。

我们最近在对Monad (MON)的分析中应用了同样的检查序列，其中释放与出售的区别正是通过这些数据清晰读出的。

ALLO投资组合：交易平台、托管方式及通往以太坊和Base的桥梁

自2025年11月开始交易以来，ALLO已在多个国际平台上上市。对于欧洲投资者而言，有两个要点比当前哪里购买代币最便宜的问题更为重要。

第一点是授权。根据欧盟《加密资产市场法规》（MiCA），加密服务提供商只有在获得相应许可证的情况下，才能在欧盟境内提供服务。你打算通过哪个平台买卖ALLO，该平台是否持有许可证，可以在国家监管机构的登记册以及平台自身的披露文件中查询。没有欧盟许可证的交易所可能会在短时间内限制其对区块内客户的提供服务，这与价格表现无关。

第二点是托管。ALLO原生运行在Allora链上，根据基金会说法，自发布以来已通过桥接技术可在以太坊、Base和BNB Chain上访问。跨桥移动代币会增加桥接风险。在面对预期大量波动的日期之前，更安静的选择是将持仓保留在你自己控制访问权限的地方。

德国ALLO收益的税务处理：所得税法第23条及一年规则

In Germany, cryptocurrency assets are considered "other economic assets" within the meaning of Article 23 of the Income Tax Act. If you sell ALLO at profit within one year of buying, the transaction is a private disposal and the proceeds are subject to tax. If the holding period exceeds one year, it is exempt from tax. There is also a threshold: Gains are tax-exempt only if the total proceeds from all private disposals are less than 1000 euros during a year. Once it reaches 1000 euros, all gains will be subject to tax, not just the excess.

This has an easily overlooked consequence for unlocking dates. If you buy shortly before November 11 to catch expected fluctuations and sell shortly after, you will be completely in the one-year window. The key is your own purchase date, not the release date of the project. Therefore, a clear track record of buying and selling is no luxury; a comparison of relevant tax software and portfolio trackers shows which procedures can properly handle such situations.

Whether the one-year rule will survive is currently politically unclear. Discussions on canceling the rule have been going on for months, but have not yet been reflected in the published draft annual tax law for 2026. Existing rules will continue to apply until a decision is made.

Monad, Plasma and Falcon: Same design in three cases

Allora's date is not an isolated case, but a design that has been repeated over the past few months: lock-in period, cliff release, proportion of circulating supply, and ratio to daily trading volume. We recently performed the same arithmetic analysis on Plasma (XPL) and Falcon (FF).

这为你提供了自我评估的框架，而非价格目标：区块相对流通供应量的大小、市场深度如何，以及悬崖式释放后每月会发生什么。ALLO的交易价格较2025年11月的高点下跌了约84%，远高于2026年2月的低点。11月11日后哪一个标记更接近，超出了严肃预测的范围。