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BTC Europol reports: Cryptocurrency wallets rather than blockchain are the main risk point for quantum computing attacks
Europol's European Cybercrime Center concluded on Wednesday that compared with the blockchains they run, cryptocurrency wallets are the main exposure for future quantum computing attacks. In a report released on October 7, the agency urged developers, exchanges, miners and users to immediately begin a phased transition to anti-quantum security. Although there are currently no computers capable of carrying out such attacks, preventive measures are urgent.
Thereport clarifies a key difference that has often been confused in previous warnings: the hash function, which protects blockchain history, including Bitcoin mining, is far more resistant to quantum attacks than the public key cryptography used to control wallets. If a quantum computer with sufficient computing power emerges, it can derive the private key from the public key, thereby spending the associated money. Europol said: "Cryptocurrencies will not collapse due to quantum computing" and "proactive adaptation rather than systemic collapse is the most likely outcome."
Why wallets rather than blockchain become risk exposure
The key to this difference lies in when the key becomes visible. When funds are transferred from a Bitcoin address, its public key is recorded on the chain, which will allow future quantum computers to reverse deduce the private key. The Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) used by Bitcoin is a vulnerable link, while the SHA-256 hash function that supports mining and ledgers is relatively secure. Europol estimates that approximately 6.9 million bitcoins were stored in addresses where public keys were exposed, including early "pay-to-public key" exports and early long-dormant positions on the network. These assets are at the core of the debate over whether quantum computers can crack Bitcoin.
Coins that cannot be repaired after the fact
The exposed public key cannot be repaired after the fact, so the oldest coins linked to the so-called "Satoshi era" on the Internet face the greatest risk. The warning follows a September notice issued by Europe's three major financial regulators that noted that quantum computing could undermine the cryptographic foundation behind blockchain and reminded regulators and market participants to be prepared before such a threat emerges. For Europol, the harder problem is not finding alternative cryptography solutions, but persuading a decentralized global network to adopt new standards before vulnerable wallets become targets.
Cost of entire network migration
Europol cited a 2024 study that estimated that converting each Bitcoin's unspent transaction output (UTXO) to a quantum-resistant format would take up at least 76 days of cumulative block space; if only a quarter of each block were reserved for this work, the time would be extended to approximately 300 days. The new quantum-resistant signature scheme could be 10 to 120 times the size of ECDSA signatures, adding an additional layer of data cost to the already complex coordination challenges among miners, developers and exchanges.
Follow-up Outlook
Bitcoin researchers and institutions are increasingly viewing 2029 as the time when a trusted migration plan must be developed, a timetable that is consistent with IBM's forecast released in July this year that quantum computing is approaching a commercial breakthrough. Europol does not predict when machines with attack capabilities will emerge. Its recommendations focus on procedural rather than panic creation: start wallet upgrades and anti-quantum cryptography deployments immediately, making "adaptation" rather than "panic response" the default state of the industry.
