Hedera price forecast: Hitachi is absent from board, HBAR retracts 27% gain from IBM's rise

摘要

截至2026年10月8日清晨，Hedera (HBAR) 交易价格约为0.094美元（约合0.084欧元）。过去七日内跌幅约10%，回落至9月28日IBM新闻引发上涨前的水平。与此同时，运营网络的管理机构Hedera理事会成员名单中已不见日立（Hitachi）的身影。对于HBAR的价格预测而言，关键在于区分市场情绪与网络基本面的实际影响。

日立退出Hedera理事会：现状分析

Hedera理事会是治理该网络的机构，其成员负责运行节点并对软件更新进行投票。根据官网信息，每位成员拥有平等投票权，且任期有限。目前列表显示有33名成员，包括Google、IBM、Dell、德国电信和LG等知名企业，但日立缺席。而在9月24日的存档页面中，日立仍是34名成员之一。

日立美洲于2024年1月在达沃斯宣布加入，当时的目标是在一年内试点供应链和可持续发展应用。自10月1日起，Hedera社区流传消息称其会员资格已于9月30日结束。然而，日立或理事会均未公布任何退出原因。

这对HBAR意味着什么？

From a technical perspective, one less member has little impact on network operations, and the remaining members are enough to maintain network operations. However, the implications of this signal are more profound. For many years, Hedera has focused on the concept of a "common governance network for large enterprises", and part of its valuation is based on this narrative. Leaving without explanation is not in line with this image, and it happens this week when prices are already under pressure, making matters worse. The subsequent impact depends on whether new members join or other members withdraw.

HBAR Price Forecast: IBM-induced gains have subsided

September 28 was HBAR's strongest day in months, with prices soaring to nearly US$0.13, an increase of about 27%. This is due to IBM listing IDTrust products (an authentication product developed by Switzerland's Hashgraph Group) in its cloud catalog as purchasable items. IDTrust aims to anchor the identities of AI agents, devices and people on the Hedera network. However, as previously reported, prices gave up most of the gains the next day. Today, this wave of gains has completely disappeared: HBAR closed at around US$0.094 before the news (September 27) and is now back to that level.

Technical indicator analysis:

• Long-term performance: It has fallen by about 57% in the past year, but has risen by about 13% in the past 30 days.
• Moving average: 当前价格略高于50日均线（约0.0876美元）和200日均线（约0.0885美元）。这两条线仅相差约1%。若短期均线从下方穿越长期均线，许多图表分析师会将其视为趋势反转的信号。但这取决于价格能否持续保持在两条线之上。

关键价格区间

上行阻力位：

• 0.106美元：首个上行阻力位，也是10月2日创下的七日高点。10月1日至5日期间，HBAR主要在0.100至0.106美元的狭窄区间内波动，直至周三才向下突破。
• 0.122美元 - 0.130美元：分别为IBM新闻当天的收盘价及当日最高价。

下行支撑位：

• 0.092美元：首个下行支撑位，即周三晚间低点所在区域。
• 0.088美元：紧随其后，此处为两条移动平均线交汇处。若收盘价跌破此区域，将对9月中旬以来的涨势构成质疑。
• 0.072美元：更深层次的支撑位，是9月16日的低点，也是过去几周涨势的起点。

链上数据亮点：USDC流入增加

In addition to price movements, there is another indicator pointing in a positive direction. According to DefiLama data, USDC (Circle issued stablecoin) held on Hedera's network is about $46 million, compared to only about $27 million a week ago. The incremental funds were received in one lump sum on October 3, and the source of funds has not yet been disclosed.

While this inflow is not a direct driver of HBAR price increases (since Hedera transfer costs are extremely low, sending USDC requires little to no purchase of HBAR), it indicates that money is flowing into the network rather than out of it. If this amount remains stable or grows, it will support Hedera's positioning as a payment and enterprise-class network; if funds are withdrawn quickly, it may be just a one-time reconfiguration.

Precautions before purchasing HBAR in Germany

Purchase channel: Only purchase HBAR on platforms authorized under the EU MiCA encryption regulations. For information on licensed exchanges, please refer to the comparison list of regulated crypto exchanges.

Hosted method: Hedera is not an Ethereum network, HBAR runs on its independent technical architecture. The account identifier format is 0.0.12345 instead of a traditional address, and many platforms also require Memo when making deposits. Before each transfer, make sure that your wallet supports Hedera. If you need to keep your own assets, please refer to the Hardware Wallet Comparison Guide.

Leverage risk: Using leveraged trading HBAR will amplify fluctuations. If it falls by about 10% within a week, the position with ten times leverage will be completely liquidated.

Holding period and tax: In Germany, if you hold cryptocurrency for more than one year, capital gains are exempt from tax under Article 23 of the Income Tax Act. The Federal Ministry of Finance plans to amend this regulation: according to the draft dated September 30, 2026, assets purchased from January 1, 2027 will no longer enjoy a tax exemption period, and the Cabinet will review the draft on October 14. Existing rules will remain in effect until the law is formally promulgated. It is recommended to use professional cryptographic tax tools to record transactions.

Focus on the coming weeks

1. Board dynamics: The addition of new members will quickly downplay negative signals of Hitachi's exit, while another exit will exacerbate concerns.
2. US$0.088 zone: This is the intersection of two moving averages. Above this, the closing price can maintain the rally since mid-September; below, it may open up space to $0.072.
3. USDC Stock: Observe whether new funds on the Internet are retained to judge market confidence.

Whether it is worthwhile to enter at the current price needs to be comprehensively evaluated based on the above factors. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and there is a possibility of total losses. This article aims to interpret news events and price levels in context and does not constitute investment advice for buying and selling HBAR. Price and fee structures are subject to change, please consult the provider for specific terms before purchasing.