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BTC 
ETH Ethereum\'s 50-week moving average falls below its 200-week moving average, forming a \"death cross.\" This is seen as a long-term bearish signal. Bitcoin, meanwhile, struggled to stay above $62000 after failing to break through the $64000 to $65000 resistance zone. This model is crucial for retail investors who are currently losing money by flooding cryptocurrencies through exchange-traded funds.
Market Performance
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin prices have fallen by about 2%, basically hovering in the low range of US$62000. However, it has rebounded from a previous 21-month low of $58000. Ethereum traded at less than $1750, down nearly 4% from the previous day and about 30% from the same period last year. Other altcoins also followed suit. The market value of cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin and Ethereum has fallen 30% since January.
Ethereum\'s technical warning
Death Crossing is the main technical signal. Chain data shows that Ethereum\'s 50-week exponential moving average has fallen below the 200-week exponential moving average. In previous sell-offs, Ethereum has successfully avoided this trend. Traders are betting on the forecast market that the bear market trend will continue. Data shows that there is a 72.3% probability that Ethereum will fall to $1500 first before rising to $3000. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index is 26, showing investors \'\"extreme fear.\"
Cryptocurrency ETF outflow
Capital outflows from crypto ETFs provide the most intuitive loss statistics. In the week ending June 26, the outflow of funds from U.S. bitcoin funds was close to US$1.79 billion. There were different views on how bad this performance was. Data showed that this was one of the worst weeks since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024. In fact, the outflow of US$1.79 billion set the second-largest weekly outflow record in history, second only to US$2.61 billion at the end of February 2025. Even so, this is already the longest continuous outflow cycle in this series of ETFs. According to SoValue data, capital outflows have occurred for seven consecutive weeks since mid-May, exceeding the previous two consecutive five-week outflows.
ETF investors lose money
These ETF outflows reflect the current situation of retail investors. The typical IBIT investor currently loses nearly 40%. This is in sharp contrast to the typical IBIT investor\'s earnings of approximately 30% in mid-2025. The IBIT fund has accumulated inflows of US$60.26 billion, but its net assets are only US$44.42 billion due to a decline in bitcoin prices by more than 23% in the past 60 days. The situation of the spot Ethereum fund is equally severe, with a loss of US$273.34 million during the same period, which is also the seventh consecutive week of capital outflows.
There is a positive sign: The Bitcoin ETF has ended 10 consecutive days of outflows totaling $2.7 billion. This round of selling coincides with the Federal Reserve\'s hawkish signal. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its June 18 meeting and deleted the word \"loose\" from its statement, while the probability of a December rate hike currently exceeds 50%. This pessimism may be exaggerated because every bitcoin bear market cycle since 2009 has ended in extreme fear, and the next halving cycle (halving new bitcoin production) is expected to arrive in about 21 months. This time, there is an additional factor to offset the bear market-the power of institutional investors represented by spot ETFs, corporate balance sheets and digital asset legal frameworks that were not present in the previous cycle.
