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Following
ETH Key Points
Large-holder activity shrinks
Trading platform supply grows
Ethereum rose about 10% in July, but underlying demand signals remain weak.
Since the end of June, Binance\'s positions have increased by 221,000 ETH, increasing tradable inventories.
According to the CryptoQuant indicator, trading volume for large holders has dropped to the \"whale leaving\" zone.
The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF recorded net inflows for four consecutive trading days, totaling US$91.5 million.
ETH needs to decisively break through the US$1803 resistance level (50-day exponential moving average) before it can be expected to test US$2400.
Ethereum has gained about 10% since early July, but the momentum seems to be becoming increasingly fragile. A number of market indicators show that although buyers are involved, they lack confidence.
The net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) indicator improved from-0.46 to-0.30, indicating that although holders are still in a floating loss state, the loss has narrowed compared with the previous period.
U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds have experienced continuous net inflows for the first time since early May, with funds entering the market for four consecutive trading days. SoSoValue data shows that these combined inflows reached $91.5 million.
While encouraging on the surface, historical patterns suggest that long-term inflows of ETF funds are needed to catalyze significant price increases. Current activities have not yet reached this threshold.
Cryptocurrency analyst Ash Crypto pointed out on platform X that ETH has fallen 6% from its recent high after being blocked at its 50-day moving average. He highlighted the key support areas of $1670 and $1500, and pointed out that returning to the 50-day moving average and breaking through $1850 are key steps towards $2400.
Large-holder activity shrinks
CryptoQuant data shows that the average whale transaction size has dropped from approximately 1500 ETH per transaction in mid-May to approximately 1000 ETH currently, entering what the analysis platform calls the \"whale departure\" area.
The retreat of institutions and high-net-worth participants has reduced the number of large orders circulating in the market. The resulting environment makes prices more vulnerable to small transactions and may amplify short-term price fluctuations.
Addresses holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH did absorb approximately 100,000 ETH in the past week. However, the total balance of such addresses has remained largely unchanged over the past three weeks, indicating that the increase in holdings has not intensified.
Growth in the supply of trading platforms
Since the end of June, Binanhang\'s Ethereum reserves have increased from 3.64 million ETH to 3.87 million ETH-an increase of 221,000 ETH, which is one of the more significant reserve increases in recent months.
The increase in inventory reserves of trading platforms means that the number of ETH available for instant trading in the market increases. While this does not necessarily mean an imminent sell-off, it puts additional supply-side pressure on an already fragile market.
The Coinbase Premium Index, a measure of U.S. trader sentiment, has rebounded from-0.169 to-0.076. Despite the improvement, negative values still indicate a discount to U.S. buyers \'trading prices in international markets.
ETH is currently trading in the US$1740 to US$1777 range, remaining above the 20-day exponential moving average (US$1714). Open interest volumes in the derivatives market remain stagnant, indicating that leveraged participants are taking a wait-and-see attitude.
