Ten ridiculous bets on Polymarket that are almost guaranteed to win

After predicting that the market frequently \"preaches\" news due to political and macro events, even the most outrageous contracts have begun to be viewed as financial management tools. At the end of 2025, Polymarket\'s contract on \"Whether Jesus will return to the world within the year\" attracted approximately US$3.3 million in funding, giving a long-term pricing with a probability of more than 3%. The final event settled on a \"No\" basis, and those who bet on \"No\" at the high point received an annualized return of approximately 5.5%, even outperforming the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield of approximately 4.1% over the same period. This result has made many people realize that the seemingly absurd forecast market is actually quietly breeding a type of \"alternative financial management\" opportunities with low volatility and quasi-fixed income.

These opportunities can be easily determined by using some common sense that they are almost \"risk-free\". Of course, there is no absolute thing. The cold weather is one aspect, and how UMA determines the outcome of the dispute is another aspect. So I can only put quotes on \"risk-free\" first.

Today, there are more than 20,000 unsettled event contracts on Polymarket. It is not easy to find these \"risk-free\" event contracts, but the task can still be completed using the appropriate screening criteria. Three criteria are set up in this article:

● The depth of the contract order book exceeds US$3000, and sports competitive contracts are excluded (dark horses often);

● The probability of a contract \"yes\" or \"no\" is between 90% and 99%(theoretically, when predicting an event where the market is more certain, the probability itself is high);

● The probability of a black swan occurring is small (common sense level).

Will Jesus come again before 2027?

● Event contract link: polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before-2027? tid=1767609729629[TAG_2 - 3]

● Buying \"no\" financial income: 2-3%

● Settlement time: December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm (EST)

As a non-believer, I really think the Second Coming of Jesus is just a Bible story. The settlement rule for this event is the simple \"Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs\" with no additional conditions attached. The Second Coming of Jesus is based on the Messianic prophecy in the Canon Gospels: Two thousand years ago, Jesus \"came\" to earth for the first time, completed the work of redemption and ascended to heaven, and believers believe that he will return to earth again sometime in the future.

However, there are also views that the Second Coming of Jesus refers to the spiritual rebirth of Jesus. Some people will rectify Christianity and establish a new ideological system. By then, all religions will face a serious crisis. But the probability of this great man appearing this year is also very low, right?

Will the United States confirm the existence of aliens before 2027?

● Event contract link: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027? tid=1767610632144

● Buying \"no\" financial income: 6-7%

● Settlement time: December 31, 2026 11:59 pm (EST)

With the development of human science and technology and the exploration of the universe, we are increasingly convinced that humans are not the only intelligent creature in the universe, but there is no obvious evidence to prove it. The rules for determining this incident contract require the President of the United States, any cabinet member, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any U.S. federal agency to make a clear statement about the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology, subject to the official statement. So while it may be that we all believe there are aliens, and it may also be that the U.S. authorities have come into contact with aliens, public disclosure is definitely another matter. The superposition of various conditions makes the probability of this event even smaller.

Will civil war break out in the United States before 2027?

● Event contract link: polymarket.com/event/us-civil-war-before-2027? tid=1767611124616

● Buying \"no\" financial income: 4-5%

● Settlement time: December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm (EST)

There was only one real civil war in the United States in history, that is, the American Civil War (also known as the Civil War) that occurred from 1861 to 1865. This civil war was the largest and most decisive civil war in U.S. history. The two sides were the United States of America (Confederation) in the North and the Confederacy of the United States in the South.

Although the United States has constant internal problems to this day and conflicts between the two parties have occurred from time to time, none of them have escalated to the level of civil war, and there are currently no social, economic, or political signs that the United States will break out within a year.

Will U.S. Treasuries reach $39 trillion by 2027?

● Event contract link: polymarket.com/event/peak-us-national-debt-before-2027? tid=1767611508991

● Financial income from buying \"yes\" for US$39 trillion: 1-2%

● Settlement time: December 31, 2026, 11:59(Eastern Time)

U.S. debt has been rising every year since 1958 and has been for 68 consecutive years until 2025. As of December 31, 2025, The total federal debt of the United States is US$38.51 trillion, which is currently only about US$485.9 billion short of US$39 trillion. The net increase in U.S. debt in 2025 will be US$2.23 trillion. At this rate, it is highly likely that the total U.S. federal debt will rise to US$40 trillion in 2026.

Although the rate may slow this year, reaching US$39 trillion is set to be achieved unless there is a very unusual persistent fiscal surplus or a large one-time cash entry, which is almost impossible in reality.

Will the United States default on its debt before 2027?

● Event contract link: polymarket.com/event/us-defaults-on-debt-by-2027? tid=1767612065804

● Buying \"no\" financial income: 4-5%

● Settlement time: December 31, 2026 11:59 pm (EST)

In history, U.S. Treasury bonds have \"defaulted\" twice. The first occurred in the United States shortly after the founding of the People\'s Republic of China in 1790. The second time was during the Anglo-American War in 1812, when the British Army captured Washington and burned the U.S. Treasury Department, resulting in the destruction of bond records. The federal government was therefore unable to repay its debts on time.

In modern times, the United States has not defaulted on any debt. Although U.S. debt has increased year after year, the United States has also raised the debt ceiling year after year, which allows the U.S. government to always borrow and repay its debts. At the same time, from another perspective, under the modern global economic system, if the United States really defaults on its debt, it means that the U.S. national credit will be bankrupt, the U.S. monetary system will also be severely hit, and even the most serious in history will occur. Financial crisis. If this really happens this year, what are the three melons and two dates we are predicting market losses?

Will Trump step down as president on March 31?

● Event contract link: polymarket.com/event/trump-out-as-president-by-march-31? tid=1767612762887

● Buying \"no\" financial income: 2-3%

● Settlement time: March 31, 2026, 11:59 pm (EST)

Compared with other \"risk-free\" financial opportunities, Trump seems more likely to step down as president before March 31, mainly because his recent Maduro arrest has indeed aroused domestic and international dissatisfaction. However, the judgment rule of this event contract is that Trump will only be counted as \"yes\" if he resigns, is permanently removed from office, or ceases to serve as president of the United States in other ways (such as death), and neither temporary removal nor impeachment without removal will be counted.

Then, this settlement condition will make this incident even more unlikely. First of all, Trump will not resign voluntarily. Although Trump does have health problems (he was exposed to taking drugs), it will not be enough to survive March 31.

Who will be the richest man in the world on December 31, 2026?

● Event contract link: polymarket.com/event/richest-person-on-december-31-2026? tid=1767613303753

● Financial income from buying \"Elon Musk\": 9-10%

● Settlement time: December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm (EST)

By 2026, Musk has been the richest man for five years (although there are brief fluctuations during this period). Musk became the world\'s richest man for the first time in 2021, when Tesla surpassed Jeff Bezos. Today, Musk\'s worth exceeds US$610 billion, and Larry Page, the world\'s second richest man, is worth US$269 billion, more than double the gap with Musk.

Although it is common for the value of the very rich to fluctuate by several billion, it is still quite difficult to make up for the gap of several hundred billion.

Will the Bitcoin network replace SHA-256 algorithm before 2027?

● Event contract link: polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-replace-sha-256-before-2027? tid=1767613902697

● Buying \"no\" financial gain: 4-5%

● Settlement time: December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm (EST)

SHA-256 algorithm is one of the core algorithms of the Bitcoin network and is the basis of the Proof of Work (PoW) mechanism. Under this algorithm, miners calculate the double SHA256 hash value by constantly adjusting the random number (Nonce) in the block header until a hash value that meets the difficulty goal is found. The first miner to complete will receive a certain bitcoin reward. At the same time, the algorithm maintains the fast time at a level of 10 minutes through dynamic difficulty adjustment. Because of this algorithm, the Bitcoin network has a consensus mechanism to verify transactions and prevent double flowers.

The SHA-256 algorithm is to the Bitcoin network what the Constitution is to the state. It defines who has the right to keep accounts (through competition for computing power), how to verify transactions (the integrity of the hash chain), and how to reach consensus (the longest chain principle).

On December 9, 2025, Google released Willow, the breakthrough cutting-edge quantum chip, which caused anxiety in the encryption industry about whether Bitcoin\'s encryption technology will be attacked by quantum computers in the near future.

Therefore, some people have proposed replacing Bitcoin\'s SHA-256 algorithm, but the possibility is too small. First, quantum computers are still in an alarmist stage of threat to the Bitcoin network, and secondly, Bitcoin network upgrades are extremely slow and rigorous. Especially for an algorithm such as SHA-256, it is impossible to replace it in a short period of time.

Will the EU disintegrate before 2027?

● Event contract link: polymarket.com/event/eu-dissolves-before-2027? tid=1767614994620

● Buying \"no\" financial income: 4-5%

● Settlement time: December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm (EST)

The settlement of this contract needs to meet one of the following rules:

1. More than half of the EU member states (as of the date of creation of the market) have officially withdrawn from the EU;

2. All EU member states have adopted formal treaties or agreements to abolish or abolish the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU;

3. The EU no longer exists as a legal entity.

In 2020, Britain announced its formal withdrawal from the EU. It is so far the only sovereign country to formally leave the EU. This is also the biggest event that has occurred in the EU in recent years. The EU is of great significance to Europe. In history, Europe has had very frequent wars (World War I and World War II also began in Europe). The situation of each camp weakened the political power of the entire region in the international arena. Therefore, European countries decided to establish the EU. In modern times, although the EU also has internal contradictions, the advantages still outweigh the disadvantages, so the possibility of disintegration within one year is very low.

Will Putin step down as Russian president before the end of 2026?

● Event contract link: polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027? tid=1767615486746

● Buy \"no\" financial income: 9-10%

● Settlement time: December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm (EST)

The contract ruling rule is that if President Putin resigns, is detained, or otherwise (such as death) loses his position or is unable to perform his duties as President of Russia within the time frame of the market, it will be considered a dismissal.

In 2020, Russia passed a constitutional amendment. The core changes were to clear the term (the term of the president that Putin had previously served will no longer be counted into the term limit) and stipulate that the president can serve for up to two more terms, each 6 years.

On May 7, 2024, Putin was re-elected as President of Russia for a term of office from 2024 to 2030, so 2026 is the third year of Putin\'s term. Although the arrest of the Venezuelan president by the United States made us realize that it is possible for a country\'s president to be detained by another country, due to Russia\'s military strength and nationalism, this kind of thing should not happen to Putin. Moreover, his body is still strong. At the age of 73, there is news that he is dating a girlfriend.