Cryptocurrency and Web3 topics that need attention in 2026

与其急于回顾最重要的新闻动态或围绕价格和K线图的评论，我更倾向于以更平缓的方式开启新的一年。因此，我将带您了解一些我在2025年关注并认为有望在2026年大放异彩的主题。

预测市场将会长期存在

我记得在2024年美国总统大选前的最后45天里，每天都能看到关于卡玛拉·哈里斯和唐纳德·特朗普之间赔率波动的新闻。Polymarket和Kalshi的名字也频频出现在新闻报道中。2024年10月和11月，Polymarket的月度投注额分别飙升至23亿美元和26亿美元，均超过了此前累计的投注额。

交易量在选举日达到峰值，随后下滑至平均每月约10亿美元，直至2025年9月。几乎没有人能预料到预测市场在接下来的三个月里会如何发展。2025年10月至12月期间，交易量排名前两位的预测市场——Polymarket和Kalshi——均创下历史新高，超过了去年同期的交易量。

@rchen8

尽管许多人从去年年初就开始为预测市场撰写讣告，但他们却通过提供迎合大众兴趣的产品来巩固自身地位：基于个人投机技巧的赌博(许多人委婉地称之为“投机变现”)。他们将交易简化为：“你认为这件事会发生吗?”投注者可以选择“是”或“否”。

是什么推动了这一趋势?一个主要因素是：体育，其次是政治、经济和加密货币相关事件。

虽然2024年12月至2025年9月期间，预测市场的新账户数量和每日活跃用户数量有所下降，但在此期间，常规体育赛事使每日未平仓合约量稳定在1亿美元左右。

全球体育赛事层出不穷。这一点，再加上时不时发布的经济、政治和财政公告，可能会持续为预测平台带来新的市场。将这种现实与自然的时间跨度、全天候交易、明确的预测观点以及超快的结算速度结合起来，预测市场便会无处不在。

这就解释了为什么券商、钱包和消费者平台纷纷尝试整合预测功能。他们明白，一旦投机简化到只需点击一下即可完成，就能有效地吸引用户参与并将其变现。

去年，我们看到排名前列的加密货币公司Robinhood(HOOD)和Coinbase(COIN)以某种形式整合了预测市场。

2025年3月，HOOD在其应用程序内直接推出了预测市场中心，允许客户对包括大学体育赛事在内的现实事件结果进行交易。就在年底前一周，COIN宣布进军预测市场，这是其一系列旨在实现“万物交易所”愿景的产品发布计划的一部分。

到2026年，体育赛事很可能仍将是预测市场稳定交易量的主要驱动力，而偶尔发生的宏观经济事件则会带来短暂的交易量激增。加密货币消费平台如何将预测市场整合到其现有生态系统中，对于吸引更多用户而言可能至关重要。

具备隐私保护功能的稳定币可以让区块链再次伟大

长期以来，隐私一直是加密货币的道德论据。加密货币最坚定的支持者们都渴望隐私，并以抵制监控的名义捍卫隐私。

与此同时，大多数区块链都存在固有的隐私漏洞。这些区块链提供了极高的透明度和最大程度的可组合性，反而让所有对加密货币持怀疑态度的人更加担忧隐私问题。

正因如此，尽管稳定币具有结算速度极快、成本低于1美元的优势，企业界仍然没有将其用于日常业务交易。

“每一笔稳定币转账都会在公链上永久记录一条账本条目。任何人都可以实时查看美元的流动情况，最终确认只需几秒钟，手续费几乎为零。”

公共账簿在结算方面非常有用，但同时也极具启发性。

“稳定币比它们所竞争的系统速度更快、成本更低，但负责工资发放和支付供应商款项的人们仍然对采用区块链路线持怀疑态度。

This situation will change from 2025.

Developers of new privacy protection solutions no longer equate privacy with anonymity, but instead provide a privacy chain of selective disclosure. They focus on hiding the really important information while retaining the benefits of public settlement.

They allow companies to conduct transactions privately, settle accounts on public books, and only disclose audit or other required information.

The adoption of technologies such as zero-knowledge (ZK) proof, private state, cryptographic memory pools, and license visibility continues to increase, and their native token prices have increased even as the entire cryptocurrency market collapses.

Privacy protection for cryptocurrencies can help blockchain evolve from a closed experimental stage to a widely adopted infrastructure.

If privacy protection is integrated into blockchain payments, stablecoins and enterprise applications, it is foreseeable that broader changes in payment methods are coming. Any traditional payment system is inseparable from confidentiality. No business wants to build core financial workflows on infrastructure that opens confidential data to competitors by default. [TAG

By 2026, the concept of privacy is likely to shed the rebellious overtones that early cryptocurrency advocates gave it. Only when the concept of privacy truly shifts will we see blockchain increasingly adopted as a replacement for slow, costly legacy systems that businesses are still using today.

Unbinding of cryptocurrency completed

For most of the past decade, unbundling has been a core promise of cryptocurrencies.

Banks are broken down into basic units, which in turn are broken down into various agreements. The mindset followed by the builders is to break up huge financial institutions into modular and composable building modules, allowing users to assemble the financial system themselves.

By 2025, it will be clear that unbundling, while beneficial to developers and early users, will be too cumbersome for others. Most users don\'t want to connect a dozen protocols to perform the five basic financial tasks they want to repeat.

Users want to reduce friction when holding, transferring, investing and speculating. This realization marks the reintegration of the originally fragmented cryptocurrency world.

Looking forward to 2025, we are witnessing top cryptocurrency companies attempt to integrate decentralized cryptocurrency experiences into a unified application. This trend is particularly evident among companies that are already at the intersection of distribution, compliance and capital.

Over the years, Coinbase has accumulated businesses such as custody, spot trading, derivatives (through the acquisition of Deribit), pledges, wallets, payments and developer tools. The company announced its vision of a \"universal exchange\" that provides a one-stop application for all users, no matter what they want to access: wallets, markets, protocols, and more.

Then Robinhood appeared. The company, which started out as a zero-commission stockbroking business, now covers stocks, options, cryptocurrencies, gold, retirement accounts, cash management and forecasting markets. Robinhood users are ordinary retail investors who want to manage all their finances with minimal friction. In this case, bundling becomes an economic option.

Once the protocol matures, distribution often becomes a moat. Network effects begin to emerge where attention is concentrated, making it easier for companies to monetize user behavior to achieve business value across multiple products.

This year, the cryptocurrency world will continue to be filled with all kinds of noise and nonsense, as well as many seemingly transformative ideas that may only last for three weeks. But some of the ideas we saw last year, perhaps the neglected mediocre, will change the way businesses and individuals use blockchain and other crypto products in 2026.

This year, we\'re going to look at these and tell stories.