WEEX Labs: What are the key issues that will have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market

As the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs stabilizes, and the scale of stablecoins and RWA continues to grow, 2026 is being seen by the market as a crucial turning point for the crypto industry. As regulatory frameworks become clearer, and traditional institutions such as banks and asset management firms accelerate their entry into the industry, the industry is moving from a state of wild growth to deeper integration. Against this backdrop, certain key events and trends could reshape the core dynamics of the crypto market, affecting the flow of capital and market dynamics. It’s important to note that these judgments are not definitive conclusions, but rather forward-looking analyses based on current data, policy developments, and market consensus. These developments could either continue the bull market or lead to temporary fluctuations or structural adjustments.

The passage of legislation governing the US crypto market structure

I believe everyone remembers that in July 2025, the passage of laws like the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and the Anti-CBDC Monitoring State Act led to a surge in enthusiasm for Ethereum, stablecoins, and PayFi-related investments.

In the first half of 2026, it is expected that the US Congress will pass bipartisan-supported laws governing the crypto market structure (such as the CLARITY Act), which will simplify compliance procedures, allow banks to directly hold crypto assets, and provide federal guidelines for the issuance of stablecoins. This could even lead to another wave of investment enthusiasm.

The appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman

In 2025, we’ve heard too many complaints from Trump about the slow pace of interest rate cuts by the current Federal Reserve Chairman, Powell.

Powell’s term as the chairman of the Federal Reserve will end in May 2026. With Trump expected to announce the candidate for the position in January, if potential candidates like Kevin Hassett or Kevin Warsh take office, it could lead to more relaxed monetary policies, including adjustments to bank capital requirements to allow for greater exposure to cryptocurrencies.

The Federal Reserve is likely to implement gradual interest rate cuts.

According to the economic forecast summary released by the Federal Reserve on December 10, 2025 (SEP), the median projection for the federal funds rate by the end of 2026 is 3.4%, with a central trend of 2.9%–3.6%. Currently, the interest rate range is 3.5%–3.75%. This means that there is limited room for further interest rate cuts this year, possibly only 1–2 times, each time by 0.25%.

As is customary, the Federal Reserve holds eight FOMC meetings throughout the year (in January, March, April, June, July, September, October, December). Specific interest rate cut decisions will be made based on latest data during these meetings.

In any case, the general trend of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is irreversible. Many observers believe that further rate cuts will inject more liquidity into the market, thereby driving BTC and other altcoins upward, especially in Q1-Q2.

Geopolitical events continue to have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. As we saw in 2025, geopolitical incidents often significantly increase market volatility.

● On April 2, Trump announced that global imports would be subject to a 10% tariff, and tariffs on Chinese imports would be even higher. This led to a drop in BTC prices of over 3%. Subsequently, Trump announced that most tariffs would be suspended for 90 days, except for those on China. This caused a brief rebound in market prices.

● In June The main topic is the escalating Israeli-Iranian conflict, including the military actions taken by the United States against Iran. This has led to a surge in geopolitical risks in the Middle East, but it hasn’t caused significant increases in the prices of Bitcoin and gold.

On October 10th, Trump announced that all Chinese imports would be subject to 100% tariffs. This led to a 17% drop in the value of Bitcoin that day, and within 24 hours, the total value of transactions in the crypto market reached $19 billion. In the following days, the tariff dispute eased somewhat, and the crypto market experienced a brief rebound.

It’s foreseeable that by 2026, similar geopolitical uncertainties may continue to escalate. With ongoing trade tensions between China and the US, conflicts in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and other potential issues still unresolved, these geopolitical risks could lead to short-term fluctuations or corrections in the crypto market. This is something that deserves our continued attention.

TGE & IPOs

Although the wealth creation effects of large-scale TGEs and IPOs are becoming less significant, they still cannot be ignored.

In 2026, the crypto market will see a wave of TGEs. For example, well-known projects like MetaMask, NFT trading platform OpenSea, and L2 blockchain Base may launch TGEs.

Additionally, prediction markets represented by Polymarket, PERP DEX markets represented by edgeX, privacy-related technologies represented by Brevis, and AI-related initiatives represented by Sentient are also set to launch TGEs. These TGEs have the potential to create wealth opportunities, attract developers and users, and drive the industry towards more practical applications.

与此同时，2026年加密行业的IPO进程将加速。继2025年加密企业筹集34亿美元后，预计今年会有更多加密公司高调上市。其中，Kraken估值200亿美元，计划上半年上市;Consensys估值70亿美元，与摩根大通合作;BitGo专注托管安全;Animoca Brands通过反向并购，估值60亿美元;Ledger售出超600万硬件钱包;Bithumb在韩国上市，由三星证券承销。

总之，知名加密项目的TGE和IPO事件标志着加密市场从早期野蛮生长向成熟机构化演进，有望吸引主流资本注入，推动创新如TradFi、Custody和Privacy技术的爆发。

更多加密ETF推出

根据多家机构的最新预测，2026年美国加密ETF市场将迎来“ETF palooza”(ETF狂欢)，预计将有LTC、DOGE等新的现货ETF、多资产和杠杆型加密ETF推出，以吸引更多场外资金。

例如，Galaxy Digital就预测，基于分销渠道扩展、机构需求激增以及代币化整合，美国现货加密货币ETF在2026年的净流入资金可能超过500亿美元。

值得关注的是，我们已经在BTC上看到了机构资金进入ETF对价格的拉升效应，但在ETH、SOL等上面的表现并不突出，这可能是机构认知差异导致需求放缓带来的结果。

Although we aren’t entirely sure whether the marginal benefits of ETFs can be reversed, there’s no doubt that multi-asset, multi-functional crypto funds will become more mainstream. This also poses challenges for the operational capabilities and professional skills of crypto projects themselves.

Quantum threats

Over the past year, progress in quantum computing has focused mainly on experimental verification. Breakthroughs by companies like Google have attracted considerable attention. Some reports even suggest that Q-Day (the day when quantum computers can break encryption) might occur between 2026 and 2027.

However, the market generally believes that quantum computers are not capable of breaking Bitcoin’s ECDSA algorithm. For example, a report by a16z indicates that it will take at least until 2030 for quantum computers to be able to break Bitcoin’s encryption.

But the Bitcoin community has already begun discussing potential solutions. It’s likely that quantum threats will remain a topic of ongoing debate between attackers and defenders. In any case, this will further strengthen the resilience of the crypto ecosystem.