比特币(BTC)138亿美元期权到期在即，多头面临关键考验

The expiration of options on Bitcoin (BTC) worth $13.8 billion is approaching. This will be a significant test for those who believe in the bull market. With many contracts being settled at once, prices may experience significant fluctuations. Investors need to keep an eye on market trends and be cautious of potential risks.

Key points:

● Short sellers of Bitcoin have strong motives to act before the expiration of the options. Pressure may increase before the expiration date.

● Concerns about AI-related investments have caused market volatility, affecting investors’ overall risk appetite.

The options on Bitcoin worth a total of $13.8 billion will expire on August 29th. Many traders believe that this could determine whether Bitcoin experiences a 9.7% pullback in the near future, or if it simply undergoes a short-term adjustment. On Thursday, Bitcoin fell to $112,100, hitting a six-week low. This contributed to the pressure on short sellers ahead of the option expiration.

Bullish Bitcoin strategies are not well-equipped to handle situations where prices fall below $114,000.

Currently, there is a surplus of bullish options with a value of $7.44 billion, which is 17% more than the bearish options with a value of $6.37 billion. However, the final outcome still depends on the Bitcoin price at 8:00 UTC on August 29th. Deribit holds 85% of the market share, followed by CME with 7% and OKX with 3%.

Bulls might be too optimistic, as some of their bets are placed on prices above $125,000. As Bitcoin declined, this optimism quickly dissipated, and market focus shifted towards bearish options. No matter the reason for the price pullback, traders who choose the bullish strategy are likely to be disappointed.

As of August 29, the number of open Deribit options related to BTC is as follows. Source: Deribit

Currently, only 12% of the call options have strike prices below $115,000, and most of them are out of the money. In contrast, 21% of the put options have strike prices at or above $115,000, with significant concentration around $112,000. Therefore, it is expected that short sellers will continue to pressurize Bitcoin prices before the monthly expiration date.

It’s still too early to say that the long position strategies have completely failed. Traders are waiting for remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Friday; any hint of an increased likelihood of interest rate cuts could support asset prices. On Thursday, US unemployment claims data exceeded expectations, further increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts. Macroeconomic uncertainty remains high.

The Federal Reserve and the tech sector may determine Bitcoin’s direction.

Below are five possible scenarios based on current price trends at Deribit. These scenarios estimate theoretical profits based on imbalances in open positions, but do not include complex strategies such as selling put options to gain exposure to rising prices.

● Between $105,000 and $110,000: $210 million in call options (long) versus $2.6 billion in put options (short). The net result favors put options, with a profit of $245 million.

● Between $110,100 and $114,000: $420 million in call options versus $1.94 billion in put options. Put options are favored, with a profit of $1.5 billion.

● Between $114,100 and $116,000: 7.95亿美元的看涨期权对比11.5亿美元的看跌期权，有利于看跌期权，金额为3.6亿美元。

● 在116,100美元至118,000美元之间：13亿美元的看涨期权对比8.3亿美元的看跌期权，有利于看涨期权，金额为4.6亿美元。

● 在118,100美元至120,000美元之间：17亿美元的看涨期权对比5.6亿美元的看跌期权，有利于看涨期权，金额为11亿美元。

若多头策略想要奏效，比特币需在8月29日前站上116,000美元。然而，最关键的分水岭仍在114,000美元，空头在这一点上最有动力推动价格下行。

最终，比特币在138亿美元月度期权到期时的表现将取决于更广泛的宏观经济趋势，包括投资者对人工智能板块的担忧。摩根士丹利警告称，激增的支出可能限制大型科技公司回购股票的能力，这一担忧进一步加重，加剧了股市的谨慎氛围。