The latest target price is announced: JPMorgan and Citibank predict that Bitcoin (BTC) will see an u

华尔街的巨头们再次把目光投向了比特币。摩根大通与花旗最新报告指出，比特币可能在今年第四季度迎来新一轮上涨行情，年底前冲击20万美元大关。支撑这一看涨预期的，不仅是创纪录的ETF资金流入，还有从黄金市场流向加密资产的资金轮动效应。换句话说，机构资金正以前所未有的速度“买入未来”。这不仅是价格预测，更像是传统金融正式拥抱比特币的一次集体宣言。

要点：

● 华尔街对比特币年末的预测在13.3万美元至20万美元之间。

● 大多数分析师认为，持续的比特币ETF资金流入及与黄金的相关性可能推动比特币创下新高。

比特币(BTC)过去七天已反弹超过13%，正逐步逼近其12.45万美元的历史高点。

比特币日线价格图。来源：TradingView

据华尔街和英国顶级金融机构预测，比特币有望在2025年底创下新高。

花旗集团预测比特币将升至13.3万美元

花旗集团预计，比特币将在2025年底达到约13.3万美元的新高。按当前约12.235万美元的价格计算，这意味着仅有约8.75%的上涨空间。

比特币日线价格图。来源: TradingView

This bank’s baseline scenario predicts that Bitcoin will experience steady growth, primarily due to inflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and investments in digital asset portfolios. Citibank believes this is a key structural factor driving further increases in Bitcoin prices.

As of Saturday, the total amount of Bitcoin managed by all US Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $163.5 billion. Citibank expects that by the end of the year, additional ETF inflows will reach around $7.5 billion, continuing to support market demand.

Balance of BTC in US spot ETFs. Source: Glassnode

However, Citibank’s pessimistic scenario suggests that if economic recession pressures intensify and risk sentiment weakens, Bitcoin could drop to $83,000 per unit.

JPMorgan analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach $165,000 per unit by 2025.

JPMorgan’s strategy team, led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, believes that, after adjusting for volatility, Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to gold.

In their latest report released on Wednesday, they wrote that the volatility ratio between Bitcoin and gold has dropped below 2, indicating that Bitcoin currently absorbs approximately 1.85 times as much venture capital as gold.

Comparison of trading volume between Bitcoin and gold. Source: JPMorgan Chase[JTAG_61]

Based on this ratio, the current market value of Bitcoin, which is approximately $2.3 trillion, would need to increase by about 42%. In theory, the price of Bitcoin should reach around $165,000 per unit to match the total amount of private gold held through ETFs, gold bars, and coins, which stands at approximately $6 trillion.

Gold is often considered a traditional benchmark asset for Bitcoin. Since the beginning of this year, gold has risen by about 48%, suggesting it could achieve its best annual performance since 1979.

Chart showing the annual performance of gold. Source: TradingView

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of gold has climbed to nearly 89, the highest level of overbought conditions since 2012.

This level typically indicates a deep annual correction of 40%–60%. Therefore, the upward trend of gold may slow down in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown a lagging correlation with gold of about 8 weeks over recent years. This further supports JPMorgan’s view that if funds shift from the precious metals market, Bitcoin could see an increase in value before the end of the year.

Source: X

JPMorgan’s optimistic forecast also assumes that spot ETFs will continue to receive stable inflows of funds during the ongoing rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months.

Standard Chartered believes Bitcoin could reach $200,000.

Among major banks, Standard Chartered is the most optimistic, predicting that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by December.

Similar to Citibank and JPMorgan, analysts at this bank believe that the continuous inflows of ETF funds—with an average weekly amount exceeding $500 million—are key factors driving Bitcoin’s total market value close to $4 trillion.

Chart showing weekly net inflows of Bitcoin ETFs in the US. Source: Glassnode

Analysts point out that increased institutional adoption, weakening US dollar strength, and improved global liquidity conditions could create conditions for Bitcoin to experience a parabolic rise similar to the bull market in 2020–2021.

Comparison of the US Dollar Index and Bitcoin performance weekly. Source: TradingView

Standard Chartered Bank analysts view an investment threshold of $200,000 as a “structural upward trend,” rather than a short-term speculative move.

VanEck predicts that Bitcoin price could reach $180,000 by 2025.

Asset management company VanEck estimates that Bitcoin price could reach around $180,000 by 2025, due to the momentum from the halving cycle.

The company believes that the halving event in April 2024 has laid the foundation for supply constraints, while ETF demand and digital asset funds provide structural support for further price increases.

As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin’s performance since the halving period is once again closely aligned with those of previous four-year cycles.

Price performance of Bitcoin since the halving event. Source: Glassnode

Historical data shows that Bitcoin typically reaches its cyclical peaks 365 to 550 days after a halving event. As of Saturday, 533 days have passed since the last halving, placing it firmly within the period of significant price increases in history. Saad Ahmed, the head of Gemini’s Asia-Pacific region, stated in an interview with Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s cyclical patterns may deviate from this range. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is “more driven by human emotions rather than pure mathematics,” and “is likely to continue in some form until 2026.”