BTC反弹至11.8万美元？本周比特币你需要了解的5件事

In this new week, Bitcoin has experienced a strong rebound, and market sentiment has shifted from cautious to optimistic. However, it won’t be easy for the bulls to completely turn the situation around—the bears are still holding strong at high levels. The long candlestick at $102,000 on the Binance chart has become a key point of attention for everyone. Currently, the market seems to be a battle between the bulls who expect prices to break through and the bears who anticipate a pullback. With increased inflows of capital and positive macroeconomic signals, Bitcoin appears ready to make a move. But whether it can break through the key resistance level remains to be seen.

As the bulls break through $111,000, a new week begins with high energy levels.

● The price trend of BTC improved near the weekly close, giving holders some much-needed respite. Will there be a short squeeze next?

● Downward price targets remain popular, but longer-term trends raise questions about the strength of the bull market.

● US CPI data will be available on Friday, without the impact of government shutdowns, providing valuable inflation data for the Federal Reserve.

● As leverage levels return, risk-taking is gradually reappearing in the cryptocurrency market. However, traders aren’t expecting significant price increases.

● Since altcoins remain in a secondary position, Bitcoin’s dominance is under threat.

Focus on the “imbalance in BTC’s upward movement”

Bitcoin saw significant fluctuations at the close on Sunday, reaching a high of $108,600 before briefly falling back.

Cointelegraph Markets Pro 和 TradingView 的数据显示，买家实力在本周亚洲首个交易日重新显现，推动价格跃升至 111,000 美元。

BTC/USD 一小时图。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

交易员现在认为，未来几天波动几乎肯定会持续下去。

在 X 的专门展望文章中，交易员 CrypNuevo 表示，10 月份剩余时间可能出现空头挤压。

“现在，我们可以看到 11.6 万美元至 11.7 万美元之间出现了大量空头清算。空头挤压即将到来?”他在一张交易所订单流动性图表旁边问道。

CrypNuevo 表示，“上行失衡”是未来需要关注的目标。

BTC/USDT 四小时图。资料来源：CrypNuevo/X

加密货币投资者和企业家 Ted Pillows 将 112,000 美元指定为重要的回收水平。

他告诉 X 的粉丝：“随着中美贸易紧张局势的缓解，我认为 BTC 可能会从现在开始进一步上涨。”

BTC/USDT 单日走势图。资料来源：Ted Pillows/X

与以往一样，市场关注的焦点是黄金以及比特币跟随其创下历史新高的潜力。黄金/美元在上周五创下每盎司4,380美元的历史新高后，当日有所盘整。

“This year, the price of gold has skyrocketed, while Bitcoin has performed relatively poorly,” wrote trader Daan Crypto Trades, referring to the ratio between Bitcoin and gold.

Especially if gold prices decline for a while, we might see some capital flowing back into higher-risk assets. Stocks will be the main beneficiaries. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies may also get a share of the profits.

The ratio between BTC/USD and gold. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

The 102,000 USD position in Binance is still not fully liquidated.

Due to the collapse on October 10th, some traders’ market views have become more negative. As a result, Bitcoin remains under significant bearish predictions.

One of these traders is Roman, who has been critical of Bitcoin’s lack of fundamental strength over the past few months.

He believes that despite BTC/USD reaching new highs, trading volume is still declining. In the long term, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows signs of bearish divergence.

1 million USD worth of Bitcoin

- MACD reaches new highs

- Bearish trend line: RSI/MACD

- Low trading volume + rising prices (bullish price action is exhausted)

- Momentum loss

- Record-breaking selling pressure

It’s always better to be safe than sorry. It’s time to take profits from long positions. Bull markets don’t last forever.

现在，潜在的反弹——甚至高达 118,000 美元——可能最终会形成头肩趋势反转形态。

他上周告诉 X 的粉丝：“突破这一水平将使这种可能性消失，也有可能这只是一次盘整。”

据 Cointelegraph 报道 ，在币安价格跌至 102,000 美元后，四小时 RSI 出现了看涨背离。

尽管如此，人们仍然预期市场最终将下跌以“填满”每日蜡烛芯。

罗曼在谈到最新突破 111,000 美元的价格走势时写道 ：“我看到的只是一次看跌的重新测试，而这一小幅上涨的成交量下降证明了这一理论。”

“还需要填充那个灯芯!”

币安 BTC/USDT 单日走势图。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

尽管美国政府关门，CPI 仍将公布

未来一周将发生一件罕见的宏观经济事件，这已经引起评论员的兴奋。

在美国政府持续关门的情况下，周五仍将发布消费者物价指数(CPI)，这是一项关键的通胀指标。

交易资源 Kobeissi Letter 在有关该主题的 X 帖子中写道 ：“本周发生了一些不寻常的事情：周五，我们在美国政府关门期间收到了 CPI 通胀数据。”

Kobesi pointed out that this would be the first time since 2018 that the CPI data is released on Fridays. The timing of this release is important for another reason: just five days later, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting to decide on interest rate changes. Macroeconomic data before each meeting is particularly important for policymakers. This time, risks are higher than ever; government shutdowns have delayed the release of most inflation-related data. Kobesi added, “The Department of Labor has stated that no other announcements will be rescheduled or made until the government shutdown ends.” The Federal Reserve is at a critical moment, as they are considering whether to continue reducing interest rates. This has led to speculation that the September CPI report might be positive. The probability of the Federal Reserve setting a target rate at their meeting on October 29th shows that market expectations are for a 0.25% rate cut. Lower-than-expected CPI data could boost risk assets, as it increases the likelihood of rate cuts, which in turn could stimulate liquidity inflows. Latest data from the FedWatch tool by the CME Group indicates that markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 0.25% on October 29th. A potential disruptive factor is the trade war between China and the US. The market remains highly sensitive to President Donald Trump’s statements regarding possible trade agreements with Beijing. Cryptocurrency risk appetite is gradually returning.New data shows that as traders come to terms with the impact of the previous 19 billion dollar plunge, leverage is gradually returning to the cryptocurrency market.

According to latest data from the blockchain analysis platform CryptoQuant, after the liquidation event on October 10th, Bitcoin’s leverage ratio began to rebound almost immediately.

Arab Chain wrote in a blog post on CryptoQuant’s Quicktake blog on Monday: “After the significant drop in mid-October, the index started to rise again last week, from a low of nearly 0.148 to around 0.166 by the end of the week.”

This gradual increase indicates that market leverage activities are returning. The slight increase also suggests that, as overall market sentiment improves, especially after the massive liquidation wave subsided, some traders have begun to open new leveraged positions.

Estimated Bitcoin leverage ratio. Source: CyptoQuant

Arab Chain said that the slow increase in leverage reflects traders becoming more cautious, and it also indicates that expectations for significant price increases are limited.

The report concluded: “The continuation of this trend in the coming days could indicate a gradual recovery in confidence—especially if prices continue to remain above the $110,000 support level.”

As reported by Cointelegraph, leveraged trading has caused many significant losses, including that of the notorious trader James Wynn, who lost another $4.8 million last week.

The success or failure of Bitcoin’s dominance lies in关键因素

. As traders become increasingly impatient, Bitcoin’s share of the entire cryptocurrency market has once again become a focus of attention.

After experiencing significant losses in October due to fluctuations in other cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin’s dominant position in the market has stabilized. However, problems have also arisen.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital wrote in a chart on Thursday: “Bitcoin’s dominance has fully confirmed the loss of its upward trend, indicating a new downward trend.”

Bitcoin’s dominance has indeed turned both the upward trend (light blue) and the 60% level (black) into new resistance levels. In fact, a level around 64% is also considered a new resistance level.

Chart showing Bitcoin’s dominance in the cryptocurrency market over time. Source: Rekt Capital/X

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance has reached 59.6%, rising to 63.5% on October 10th. As reported by Cointelegraph, market analyst Rekt Capital believes that a level of around 70% is a typical area for trend reversals.

He explained, “These old support levels have turned into new resistance levels. It seems that Bitcoin’s dominance is ready to begin a new downward trend over time. Of course, these levels will continue to act as resistance to any potential increases in Bitcoin’s market value during this period.”

Looking to the future, a loss of 57.68% from the green support level could lead to a significant change in market conditions during the next season.

Binance Contract Trading Platform: The overall performance of the top 50 altcoins. Source: Luke Martin/X

As evidence of the severe decline in altcoin prices, the futures prices of the top 50 altcoins remain below the levels seen before the bear market peak in 2022.