The clouds of tariffs have dissipated. Is the bull market back again?

With the US Treasury Secretary announcing that further imposing 100% tariffs on China will not be considered, market sentiment begins to shift again. As signs of easing in the latest US tariff negotiations emerge, investors’ risk-averse sentiment significantly decreases. Bitcoin prices recover alongside U.S. stock markets, and other major crypto assets also start to show positive trends. Some analysts believe that the temporary relief from these “tariff clouds” could be a trigger for risk assets to rise again. However, others warn that this rebound is more of a technical recovery after a period of stress. True signs of a bull market still require observation, particularly regarding continued macro liquidity and institutional investment.

Last night to this morning, the market experienced another significant increase. Data from Oye OKX shows that BTC reached a high of 115,000 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 3.02%.

● ETH also made significant progress, reaching a high of 4,194.84 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 5.88%.

● SOL recovered above the 200 USDT mark, reaching a high of 205.09 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 5.58%.

In addition to BTC, ETH, and SOL, the altcoin market finally showed some real improvement. Some tokens saw impressive gains. For example, ZEC reached a high of 368 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 30.03%. VIRTUAL also performed well, reaching 1.5761 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 22.25%. Other popular tokens such as PUMP, PENDLE, and ENA also saw significant gains, with increases of 17.64%, 10.06%, and 9.22%, respectively.

Affected by the overall upward trend in the market, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has seen a rapid recovery. According to CoinGecko data, the total market value of cryptocurrencies now stands at $3.984 trillion, representing a 3.5% increase over the past 24 hours. The panic among cryptocurrency users has also significantly diminished; today’s Panic-Greed Index reached 51, indicating a shift from “panic” to “neutral”. In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that over the past 24 hours, there were approximately $421 million in margin calls across the entire market, with most of these being short positions, totaling $345 million. Among the different currencies, BTC accounted for $169.7 million in margin calls, while ETH accounted for $110.7 million in such calls.

The issue of tariffs has somewhat subsided.

From a news perspective, the direct reason for the rapid recovery in the market is undoubtedly the new progress made in negotiations between China and the United States regarding tariff issues.

From October 25th to 26th, He Li Feng, the Chinese vice premier who leads China’s economic delegation, met with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Riki Greer in Kuala Lumpur to discuss economic relations between the two countries.

After the negotiations, Li Chenggang, the Chinese deputy minister for international trade negotiations, told Chinese and foreign media that both sides had reached preliminary agreements on several important economic issues that concern each other. Next, both sides will proceed with their respective domestic approval processes.

After the talks in Kuala Lumpur, U.S. Treasury Secretary Sebastian said in an interview with American media that both sides had reached a “very substantial framework agreement.” This agreement laid the foundation for a meeting between the two leaders. The U.S. has “abandoned the idea” of imposing 100% tariffs on China. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer also stated at the press conference that the trade negotiations between China and the U.S. have been fruitful, covering various topics. Both sides are currently discussing the final details of a possible trade agreement, and it is almost ready to be presented to the leaders of both countries for consideration.

Since Trump suddenly announced new tariffs earlier this month, a cloud of uncertainty has hung over the cryptocurrency market and even the global financial markets. On October 11th, the market experienced a historic plunge. As the tensions gradually ease, the market will naturally warm up as well. But it seems like this is another example of Trump’s classic “lift high, drop low” strategy. However, with each move, significant wealth has been transferred from one side to the other.

Focus this week: Interest rate decisions

The key event this week will undoubtedly be the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Thursday morning. At 2:00 PM Beijing time on October 30th, the FOMC will announce its interest rate decisions and provide an overview of economic expectations. Then, at 2:30 PM, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy.

Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that both overall and core inflation rates in September were lower than expected. This situation has paved the way for the Federal Reserve to continue with its interest rate cuts. In September, the unadjusted annual CPI rate in the U.S. reached 3%, a slight increase from last month’s 2.9%. This is the highest level since January 2025. However, the increase was slightly lower than market expectations of 3.1%. The adjusted monthly CPI rate in September was 0.3%, which was also lower than market expectations and previous values of 0.4%. The unadjusted annual core CPI rate in September in the U.S. was 3%, lower than market expectations and previous values of 3.1%. The adjusted monthly core CPI rate in September was 0.2%, again lower than market expectations and previous values of 0.3%. After the release of these CPI data, traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates twice this year. CME “Federal Reserve Watch” data shows that there is a 97.3% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is only 2.7%. There is also a 95.5% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points in December. Ignoring all the uncertain traditional factors, if we abstract the market trends into a simple question, then the individual who has had the most influence recently is undoubtedly the giant whales, who have achieved a 100% winning rate since the major decline on October 11th.HyperBot 数据显示，“10.11 至今胜率 100%巨鲸”目前持有的 13 倍 BTC 多单和 5 倍 ETH 多单已浮盈约 1754 万美元，且暂时仍未止盈，三小时前该巨鲸甚至还追加建仓了 1868 枚 ETH 多单。目前，该巨鲸的持仓总价值约 3.39 亿美元，其中 BTC 多单价值约 1.71 亿美元，开仓价为 110680 美元;ETH 多单价值约 1.68 亿美元，开仓价为 3929 美元。

显然，该巨鲸仍在继续看多。不管是内幕也好，还是技术也罢，短线跟紧该巨鲸的节奏或许才是应对当下行情的优解。